NCAA Bracketology: Princeton Joins the Seeded Teams

A clear No. 1 has been established, a new team enters the seeded ranks and the bubble picture remains steady, for now.

North Carolina claims rightful spot

North Carolina’s comeback victory over Boston College secured the top seed in this week’s bracket, and possibly for the entire NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels are now an impressive 7-0 against top-20 foes and have beaten four teams we have seeded in this week’s bracket.

Boston College only slides down one spot, while Northwestern maintains its grip on No. 3 after easily dispatching Johns Hopkins for top honors in the Big Ten. Florida and Hopkins stay at Nos. 4 and 5, respectively.

Hello, Princeton

Winners of nine straight and the No. 3 RPI, the Princeton Tigers leap into the No. 6 seed this week. Something holding Princeton back is that opening day loss to Virginia, but eight wins against the RPI top 40, including three against top-15 teams, is good enough for now.

The team getting bumped out is Virginia, which seems counterintuitive until you dig into the numbers and profiles. Virginia is No. 9 in the RPI and has four losses, while Princeton is No. 3 and has only one loss. Virginia also has three wins against RPI top-40 teams, while Syracuse (7) and Stanford (8) have many more plus the head-to-head against the Cavaliers.

Solidifying their place in the field

It’s fair to say that some teams have locks in this field barring something catastrophic. Teams like Virginia, Yale, Penn, Loyola, Maryland and James Madison are seemingly set even if they stumble. Two teams inched closer to locking their places, too: Harvard and Duke.

The Crimson took out Penn, 10-8, to rise to No. 13 in the RPI. Harvard is 3-1 against RPI top-20 teams. Duke (11-3) handled Brown in a mid-week clash and won at Pitt in a tougher-than-expected game. If those two hold serve in the games they’re favored in, that will leave just four at-large spots down the stretch.

Final four in

Our final four have two things in common: RPI of 23 or better plus wins against teams already in the field (in one case, against a seeded team).

Navy’s RPI continues to rise, now at No. 15. The Mids have four wins against the RPI top 40 with the Virginia game as its top win. Navy is also boosted by good form from Villanova (the Big East auto representative this week) and Jacksonville (ASUN representative), which knocked off the Mids earlier this season. Saturday’s game at Army has major at-large implications (the Black Knights are our first team out).

Clemson has a big opportunity to solidify its place in the field at Stanford on Thursday. The Tigers have just one win over a team currently in the field (Syracuse) and a significant loss (Mercer).

Brown’s loss at Duke was a missed opportunity, but chances remain to lock in that at-large spot. The Bears are 23rd in the RPI, which would be the highest among bubble teams this week, mostly because of a weak schedule (51st in strength of schedule, the lowest of any at-large team in the field).

And the final team in the field is Michigan. The Wolverines are 20th in the RPI and have a mixed bag profile: a win over Penn, but losses to Penn State and Denver.

Outside looking in includes a perennial tournament team

Drexel, a bubble team last week, is in the field as the top CAA team. Both the Dragons and Stony Brook are 4-0 in league play, but Drexel gets the nod due to superior RPI (22nd vs. 24th). Without the AQ, Stony Brook isn’t in the field.

The Seawolves don’t have a win against any teams in the top 30 in the RPI and have a loss to a sub-30 team in Rutgers and another against fellow bubble dweller Colorado.

Other bubble teams include Army (RPI No. 25), which would get into the field if it beats Navy, as well as Notre Dame (RPI No. 27), Colorado (RPI No. 21) and Dartmouth (RPI No. 18). Each of these teams have opportunities to win and strengthen their cases.

Flier miles

Last week was the high-water mark for flights (6), but this week it’s down to five. As Jacksonville joins the field and can drive to Florida, that leaves the Stanford pod needing three visitors and the other two going to Gainesville.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, April 7), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

North Carolina snapped BC’s 21-game winning streak en route to top honors in the ACC and the nation … Princeton leads a mighty Ivy League and is No. 3 in the RPI … Northwestern took hold of the Big Ten with a dominant win over Johns Hopkins.

Florida is 10-2 with its two losses by a combined five goals. This week features road games at Jacksonville and Colorado, which might ultimately decide the Big 12 regular-season title … James Madison should be well rested after a week off as it travels to Georgetown and Temple … Loyola will try to make it five straight games of scoring at least 17 goals when it heads to Boston U.

Drexel is the CAA bid this week, as the Dragons leaped past Stony Brook in the RPI. Both teams are 4-0 and are on a collision course for an undefeated matchup on April 18 … UMass beat A-10 nemesis Richmond 19-10 and might face its last tough test of the regular season with a road game at Davidson this Saturday, where a win by the Wildcats would put them in first place … Speaking of Wildcats, Villanova enters the picture as the Big East auto bid thanks to UConn’s win over Denver.

There might be no higher variance team than Jacksonville, which has a top-15 win over Navy but also lost to RPI No. 102 Vermont. The Dolphins are up to No. 40 in the RPI … UMass Lowell is new to the field as the America East representative after beating first-place UMBC this past Saturday. The River Hawks have won five straight … High Point hosts Gardner-Webb before arguably the biggest game of the Big South season against Mercer on Saturday.

Mount St. Mary’s is back on the MAAC carousel after taking out Fairfield, 10-7 … The wide-open MAC has three one-loss teams, but Akron has the most conference wins (3), which gives the Zips the spot this week …  Wagner remains the NEC auto bid in place of reclassifying Stonehill.

AT LARGE  (25 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College continues its late season gauntlet when it hosts Virginia on Saturday before capping the regular season at Syracuse on April 17 … Johns Hopkins will try to regroup this week with a Midwest swing through Ohio State and Michigan … Stanford held off Notre Dame to retain its spot among the seeded teams — the Cardinal have eight top-40 wins.

Syracuse’s somewhat surprising loss to Yale was the team’s last foray into non-conference play. Next is at Virginia Tech, while Yale tries to keep the good vibes going at Penn … Virginia has a great opportunity to spring an upset at BC.

Maryland avoided disaster at Arizona State before finishing off its westward sweep at USC … Harvard easily beat Dartmouth and holds its destiny down the stretch against Penn, Cornell and Brown; Whoever qualifies for the Ivy League tournament will get an at-large bid, and maybe even the fifth-placed team, but the committee hasn’t been kind to teams who don’t make their own tournaments.

Army vs. Navy is the ultimate bubble buster game … Duke and Clemson are the sixth and seventh teams from the ACC this week … Michigan has a tenuous resume — wins over Penn, Colorado, USC and Jacksonville. The Wolverines have work to do to sew that place up.

Stony Brook being on the outside looking in is a surprising sentence to write. Nevertheless, the Seawolves have losses to two non-tournament teams and likely none against any at-large teams as of this moment … USC is finding Big Ten life difficult having lost four of its last five heading into its East Coast swing to Rutgers and Penn State, which are must-win affairs. The Scarlet Knights also lost to Penn State and have dropped three of four.

Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are ACC teams with high RPI (27th and 28th, respectively). While the Hokies have no significant wins, the Irish have one against Harvard to go against seven losses to top-20 teams, the last of which was a heartbreaker to Stanford.

Cornell likely must win out to get into the field at this point; same goes for UConn, despite breaking its hex against Denver. The Pios had their 12-game winning streak snapped in Storrs. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Clemson vs. Navy
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Stanford, Calif.

Villanova (BIG EAST) at (8) Stanford
Virginia vs. Brown

Gainesville, Fla.

Wagner (NEC) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Maryland vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Baltimore, Md.

High Point (BIG SOUTH) at (5) Johns Hopkins
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Duke

Newton, Mass.

Harvard vs. Drexel (CAA)
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Syracuse, N.Y.

Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) at (7) Stanford
Yale vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Akron (MAC)
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

Princeton, N.J.

UMass Lowell (AMERICA EAST) at (6) Princeton (IVY)
Penn vs. James Madison (AMERICAN)

Last Four In: Navy, Clemson, Brown, Michigan
First Six Out: Army, Notre Dame, Colorado, Dartmouth, Stony Brook, USC
Moving In: Akron, Drexel, Jacksonville, Mount St. Mary’s, UMass Lowell
Moving Out: Detroit Mercy, Fairfield, Liberty, Stony Brook, UMBC
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Ivy League (5), Big Ten (3), Patriot League (2)