NCAA Bracketology: Patriot League Prominence

Upsets ruled the weekend to alter the balance on the bubble and shuffle the seeded ranks. That might open the door for the Patriot League to get three teams in the field and two Ivy League teams to earn seeded draws.

Army beats Navy, solidifies a spot in the field

There’s always more at stake in a rivalry game like Army-Navy, but being the No. 2 team in the Patriot League is crucial if there’s an at-large bid to be gained in the process. Army’s five-goal win over Navy gives it two top-20 wins and effectively sews up an NCAA bid if its RPI stays as high as it is (No. 20). As of now, the Black Knights (10-2) are the highest RPI team in this week’s projection.

For Navy, this puts the Mids firmly on the bubble. They are the final team in the field because of two things: a significant win over Virginia (RPI No. 7) and an RPI of 14. The loss to Jacksonville drags on the resume, and they might need a crucial split with Army should they meet in the Patriot League semifinals in a couple weeks.

ACC teams slip, Yale’s surge continues

The top five seeded teams from last week remain the same (North Carolina, Boston College, Northwestern, Florida and Princeton), but the bottom three got shuffled after Johns Hopkins got rocked by Michigan, Syracuse lost to Virginia Tech and Stanford stumbled to Denver.

All that contrasts with a team like Yale (10-3), which has won three straight after a three-game skid. Saturday’s double-overtime win over Penn got the Bulldogs up to No. 9 in the RPI and represents a third win over an RPI top 20 team. Yale is seeded eighth this week.

Virginia wins after a split week

By virtue of the results around it and a mid-week win over Maryland, Virginia rose the most — from unseeded to No. 6 in this week’s projection. The Cavaliers have a lot going for them — a No. 7 RPI, the second-rated strength-of-schedule and something no one else in the country has, which is a win over Princeton.

Yes, Virginia lost to Stanford and Syracuse, but the Cavaliers have more wins over top-20 foes (4) than Stanford (2), a better RPI than Syracuse (11th) and their worst loss (to RPI No. 14 Navy) isn’t as harmful as the ones Syracuse (vs. No. 22 Clemson, No. 26 Virginia Tech) or Stanford (vs. No. 20 Army, No. 30 Denver) have suffered.

Bubble tightens (again), adds two new participants

Michigan and Brown have eked their ways off the bubble in a good way with recent form, and we just discussed Army. That effectively leaves three spots for 13 teams.

Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth and Cornell are fighting for the final two spots in the Ivy League tournament, and all four have legitimate chances to make the NCAA tournament. Would the committee take five teams from the Ivy League? Maybe, but it’s not reliable that a non-Ivy League tournament participant will be included in the NCAA field.

Then you have a team like Clemson, whose win over Syracuse has lost some luster given the Orange’s recent form and has a huge albatross in its loss at Mercer. Army’s inclusion is bad news for the Tigers, who are the first team out this week.

Colorado’s win over Army looks better by the day, and Denver is a bit of an enigma — low RPI (No. 30) with wins over Stanford and Michigan, but a perplexing loss to Louisville as well as a conference loss to UConn. As of now, Villanova remains the Big East auto bid.

Lastly, Virginia Tech (9-7) and now tournament-eligible Penn State (7-7) have entered the chat. The Hokies stunned Syracuse and have the No. 26 RPI, but a loss to High Point is a big issue. And then there’s Penn State, winner of five straight, making another late charge at an at-large bid.

The Nittany Lions were 2-7 and No. 57 in the RPI a month ago. Now, at 28th, Penn State could earn the Big Ten’s No. 3 seed with a win at Johns Hopkins tomorrow, which would be a second victory over a likely NCAA tournament team.

Who needs a flight?

Only two teams need a flight to fill out this week’s bracket because Stanford is not among our seeded teams. With Florida one of the hosts and Mercer able to drive to Gainesville, just Harvard and Stanford will need to fly.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, April 14), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

North Carolina (15-0) can wrap up a perfect regular season at its rival’s field when it takes on Duke Thursday night on ESPNU … Speaking of rivalry games on ESPNU, Princeton puts its 11-game winning streak on the line against a desperate Penn team that is flirting with the bubble. Opening draw is Wednesday at 8 p.m. … Florida has a small case to be the No. 3 seed — a better RPI and same number of losses as Northwestern, but the Wildcats’ two losses are to the RPI Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the country, while Florida’s are against the RPI Nos. 1 and 13.

Northwestern is one win away from a share of another Big Ten regular season title and must keep winning to maintain that No. 3 spot … Loyola is in a similar position, as a win against Holy Cross on Saturday secures at least a share of another Patriot League title … James Madison hosts Liberty and South Florida this week in the hopes of extending a three-game winning streak.

UMass easily took care of Davidson on the road to all but clinch the Atlantic 10 title, which the Minutewomen must win, as there isn’t an at-large resume to fall back on … Drexel is 6-0 in CAA play and remains the league’s lone representative … Liberty leapfrogged Jacksonville in the RPI for the ASUN nod this week.

Villanova’s RPI fell to 45th, but the Wildcats remain in line for the No. 1 seed in the Big East as of now. The Big East regular season title will be decided April 26 at Denver … UMass Lowell is the last unbeaten team in the America East but will get two stern tests this week at Dartmouth and UMass before returning to league play … Mercer edged out High Point by three for the Big South lead with three games to play.

Mount St. Mary’s is one of three 5-1 teams in the MAAC, which also has three more teams only one game behind … Akron, tied with Robert Morris at 3-1, remains the MAC auto bid this week with two league games to play … LIU re-enters the field this week as the NEC bid.

AT LARGE  (24 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College took apart Virginia to emphasize how much room there is between the top half of seeded teams and the lower half … Johns Hopkins had its worst game of the year in an 11-goal loss to Michigan ahead of a big one versus a hot Penn State team and a rivalry matchup at Maryland … Virginia’s numbers improved enough to regain a seeded slot, although any of the bottom three seeded teams are on slippery ground.

Stanford’s home loss to Denver greatly hampers its chances to host, but it is only one spot away from being able to do so … Yale is rolling, as noted above, and gets a seeded slot … Maryland can sew up the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament this week with wins over Rutgers and Johns Hopkins.

Syracuse might have the toughest strength-of-schedule, but six losses are hard to overcome if it wants to be seeded … Navy likely needs to reach the Patriot League final to feel secure about its chances of making the NCAA tournament … Duke is among the safest at-large teams going into its game against North Carolina.

Brown is on a three-game winning run heading into Saturday’s game against Princeton, where a win would clinch that elusive NCAA tournament bid … Michigan’s at-large prospects were clinched with that large win over Hopkins … Harvard’s one-goal loss at Cornell undid the good work done the previous week against Penn. A win over Yale may be necessary to stay in the field.

Penn dropping close games to Harvard and Yale creates a tall task to overcome against Princeton tomorrow and Cornell on Saturday … Army really boosted its chances of making the NCAA tournament by beating Navy … The two-game slide by Dartmouth comes at a bad time — the Big Green need wins the rest of the way.

Clemson losing at Stanford is nothing to feel bad about, but the Tigers likely need another signature win to feel comfortable about its at-large chances … Colorado couldn’t get a signature win over Florida and will look to try and get the best of its Front Range neighbor, Denver, on Thursday in Boulder … Virginia Tech had a big surprise for Syracuse, and if the Hokies can do the same to Virginia tomorrow night, they’ll be right in the thick of the at-large discussion.

Cornell is also rising but among our first six out this week. Getting into the Ivy League tournament would be a requirement for the Big Red to make the NCAA tournament as well … Penn State is at .500 for the first time this season and has a big opportunity against Johns Hopkins coming up … Stony Brook still has a low RPI (29th) and will have to rely on the CAA automatic bid.

Denver got the shock win over Stanford and can boost its at-large prospects against Colorado … USC split its East Coast trek at Rutgers and Penn State, but will need a run in the Big Ten tournament to build its resume … UConn losing at Marquette is a major disappointment after finally vanquishing Denver. The Huskies will need to win the Big East to get in. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Duke vs. Navy
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

New Haven, Conn.

UMass Lowell (AMERICA EAST) at (8) Yale
Syracuse vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (4) Florida (BIG 12)
Stanford vs. Harvard

Princeton, N.J.

LIU (NEC) at (5) Princeton (IVY)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Drexel (CAA)

Newton, Mass.

Brown vs. Army
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Baltimore, Md.

Liberty (ATLANTIC SUN) at (7) Johns Hopkins
Maryland vs. Villanova (BIG EAST)

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Akron (MAC)
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern

Charlottesville, Va.

Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) at (6) Virginia
James Madison (AMERICAN) vs. Penn

Last Four In: Army, Harvard, Penn, Navy
First Six Out: Clemson, Dartmouth, Cornell, Colorado, Denver, Virginia Tech
Moving In: Army, Liberty, LIU
Moving Out: Clemson, Jacksonville, Wagner
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Ivy League (5), Big Ten (4), Patriot League (3)