Bracketology: Syracuse Remains Top Overall Seed in Latest Projection

Late April and early May are home to some of the most surprising results of every season. By now, there’s a sense of who’s good, bad or great, so when an upset happens, it can throw things for a loop.

Seemingly, Boston College’s victory at Syracuse would shake up the seed lines significantly. While there is some change, its effects are not confined only to BC’s seed line, but others, too. The Eagles received a positive RPI bump to No. 3, which begs the question, ‘Do they deserve a No. 3 seed?’

Northwestern (4-1 vs. RPI top 10), North Carolina (3-2 vs. RPI top 10) and Denver (2-0 vs. RPI top 10) all defeated Boston College and hold a bevy of victories over other RPI top 10 teams, while BC (1-3 vs. RPI top 10) holds just one (Syracuse). We’re keeping the Orange at No. 1 for now — they have the top RPI and five wins over RPI top 10 teams, the most in the field. Northwestern holds at No. 2, while North Carolina temporarily swaps spots with Denver for Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

This leaves BC at No. 5, right above James Madison, which did nothing wrong, but its profile doesn’t carry a win over the top-rated team. Maryland and Florida, whom the Dukes both defeated, round out our top eight.

Johns Hopkins leaps into the field, likely permanently

Two other results shifted RPI in dramatic fashion up and down the board — Johns Hopkins going 2-0 against Towson and Penn State. That made Hopkins tournament-eligible at 8-7 and moved the Blue Jays up to 13th in the RPI.

This gives significant victories to teams like Northwestern, James Madison, Maryland, Stony Brook, Penn and Drexel. Additionally, this alleviates some stress on the selection committee, as the Blue Jays can travel as far south as North Carolina and will reduce the number of flights needed.

Yale, Villanova slide out of at-large picture for now

The toughest week was suffered by Yale. The Bulldogs are on a three-game losing streak with two bad losses to Harvard and Cornell, the second of which was a noted upset alert by USA Lacrosse Magazine last week.

The Senior Day loss to the Big Red might have effectively ended Yale’s season because it needs to beat Columbia and get some help just to make the Ivy League tournament. With an RPI of 26 and a lone quality win (Army), the Elis are the second-to-last team out this week.

Villanova had a golden opportunity to get a season-defining victory against Marquette, but the Wildcats fell short. Villanova is a solid 23rd in the RPI but doesn’t carry a win over an NCAA tournament team as of now and is 0-4 against RPI top 20 competition.

So, who replaces Villnova? Richmond.

The Spiders are back in our field of 29. The yo-yo team of our weekly bracketology is in mainly because the computers say so. Richmond bolted eight spots to No. 22 in the RPI. At that level, with a win over Virginia in their back pocket, the Spiders have a path to an at-large bid. However, anything less than a run to the Atlantic 10 final will dash those hopes — let alone a bid thief from another league.

Potential bid thieves

Speaking of which, some leagues have more potential to spoil an at-large’s chances than others. These are teams that hail from leagues who have at least one team that will almost certainly make the field, while they themselves wouldn’t make it without the automatic qualifier.

Here are some top bid thieves to keep an eye on: Navy (Patriot League), Towson (CAA), and anyone in the Ivy League not named Penn.

Big Ten tournament opener as a possible play-in

The ACC already kicked off its conference tournament, while the Big Ten and others begin their preliminary rounds this week. One matchup is potentially the juiciest: Penn State at Michigan.

The Nittany Lions, who beat Maryland just two weeks ago, needed a win over Johns Hopkins to earn the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament. The loss to Hopkins dropped Penn State to the No. 5 seed and a road trip to Michigan. Both teams are in our last four in the field, and for very different reasons.

Michigan has a solid RPI (18th) and a great strength-of-schedule (10th), but the Wolverines have little in the way of quality wins. In fact, Penn State is their lone victory over anyone higher than 38th in the RPI.

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions wouldn’t even be in this conversation if not for what has turned out to be an incredibly bad loss to 3-11 Vanderbilt in March. PSU is 24th in the RPI but is a notable 2-3 against the RPI top 20. A loss, coupled with other results around the country, could lead to a nervous Selection Sunday.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LacrosseReference.com, as of Monday morning, April 24), not human polls. First-place teams and conference tournament No. 1 seeds are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the highest rated team in the RPI is listed as the AQ. For the 2023 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

Northwestern Big Ten

Boston College ACC

James Madison AAC

Denver Big East

Stony Brook CAA

Loyola Patriot

UMass A-10

Penn Ivy

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

USC Pac-12

Liberty ASUN

Mercer Big South

Central Michigan MAC

Sacred Heart NEC

Northwestern rose to No. 1 in most human polls this week, and the Wildcats likely deserve that spot. Should they win the Big Ten tournament and Syracuse falters in the ACC, expect NU to claim the overall No. 1 seed … Next to the Orange, Boston College gave Northwestern its toughest game this season, a 15-14 loss in Evanston. BC is the ACC’s No. 1 seed … James Madison has rolled through the rest of the American and can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win at East Carolina on Saturday.

Through no fault of its own, Denver slipped one spot in our field this week, but the Pioneers are well positioned to gain it back should North Carolina, Syracuse or Northwestern falter in their respective tournaments … New year, new conference, same top spot. Stony Brook can clinch the outright CAA title with a win over Long Island-rival Hofstra on Friday … Loyola is the epitome of winning and losing the games it expected to. Next up, the Patriot League tournament.

UMass avenged its A-10 title game loss from last year with a four-goal victory over Saint Joseph’s … Penn clinched the Ivy’s top seed with a game in hand to earn hosting duties … Albany faces first-year conference foe Bryant on Saturday to finish off a perfect regular season conference slate.

Fairfield continues to lead the charge in the competitive MAAC. The Stags have the week off and will host the tournament May 5-7 … USC is a victory over Arizona State away from winning the Pac-12 on its own … Liberty remains atop the ASUN, trailed by Jacksonville by a game in the standings and a spot in the RPI.

Mercer and Campbell are both 7-0 in the Big South. Should both win their mid-week battles, a regular season title is on the line in Buies Creek between the two teams … Central Michigan, Kent State and Robert Morris are all 5-1 in the MAC; CMU gets the nod due to its superior RPI … Sacred Heart has sewn up the No. 1 seed and hosting rights in the NEC even before Saturday’s regular season finale.

AT-LARGE (21 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse ACC

North Carolina ACC

Maryland Big Ten

Florida AAC

Notre Dame ACC

Virginia ACC

Johns Hopkins Big Ten

UConn Big East

Army Patriot

Marquette Big East

Michigan Big East

Drexel CAA

Richmond A-10

Villanova Big East

Penn State Big Ten

Navy Patriot

Yale Ivy

Stanford Pac-12

Clemson ACC

Jacksonville ASUN

Towson CAA

Syracuse is holding to its No. 1 seed tenuously. A slip up in the ACC tournament would likely drop the Orange … North Carolina has losses to Syracuse and Northwestern, but wins over Boston College, James Madison, Florida and Virginia solidify it as our No. 3 seed … Maryland has dropped two of its last three games entering the Big Ten tournament.

Florida continues to plod along in conference play. A mid-week clash with Jacksonville awaits before the regular season finale at Old Dominion … Notre Dame versus Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals is a spring rite of passage. Winner likely gets Boston College in the semifinals.

Johns Hopkins was covered up top and is likely to make the field even if it gets upset in the Big Ten quarterfinals by Rutgers … If we did a first five out, UConn would be in it. The Huskies have a good RPI (No. 14) and three wins over teams in the RPI top 26, but it’s possible none of those teams make the NCAA tournament … Army, like UConn, has a high RPI (No. 15) and wins over teams in the RPI 20s, but currently no wins against teams in the field. The Black Knights are our second-to-last team in the field this week.

Marquette has wins over conference rivals and fellow at-large candidates UConn and Villanova, which should be enough to hear its name called two Sundays from now … Michigan has no bad losses, but aside from a triumph over Penn State, it has no great wins, either. Another chance to add to its profile is against Penn State in the Big Ten quarterfinals … Drexel’s early season win over Johns Hopkins looks awesome now.

Richmond received a massive RPI bump to No. 22 and is back in our field this week at the expense of Villanova, which couldn’t get the win over Marquette … Penn State would be best advised to beat Michigan and take any doubt from the selection committee.

Navy lost to Army for the second straight year and finds itself on the bubble despite wins over Richmond and Jacksonville due to its loss to Boston U … Yale’s recent skid might be too much to overcome in terms of its at-large chances … Stanford rose in the at-large discussion again now that its RPI improved to No. 27.

Clemson’s RPI continues to slip, but it has always needed a signature win to see it make the NCAA tournament in its inaugural season. That chance is Wednesday night against perennial powerhouse North Carolina … Jacksonville also saw a big RPI jump to re-enter the pile of at-large teams. Its path remains through Liberty and the ASUN tournament … Towson is on the periphery of the bubble and should rely on the CAA auto bid.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Syracuse, N.Y.

Penn (IVY) vs. UConn
Winner plays at (1) Syracuse

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Florida
Notre Dame vs. USC (PAC-12)

Denver, Colo.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (4) Denver (BIG EAST)
UMass (A-10) vs. Drexel

Newton, Mass.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (5) Boston College (ACC)
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Army

Evanston, Ill.

Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (2) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Maryland
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Johns Hopkins vs. Richmond
Winner plays at (3) North Carolina

Harrisonburg, Va.

Liberty (ASUN) at (6) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Virginia vs. Penn State

Last Four In: Michigan, Penn State, Army, Richmond
First Six Out: Villanova, Yale, Navy, Stanford, Clemson, Jacksonville
Moving In: Johns Hopkins, Richmond
Moving Out: Villanova, Yale
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Big East (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), CAA (2), Patriot League (2)