Bracket Analysis: The Division I Selection Committee Got It ... Right?

Dare we say the Division I women’s selection committee largely got it right?

There were few — if any — real surprises Sunday night during the first-ever women’s-only Selection Show on ESPNU. Jeremy Fallis, our expert women’s bracketologist, correctly predicted all 29 teams in the field in his final projection, and although undefeated Denver might have a reasonable complaint as the No. 5 seed, the committee stuck to precedent.

But more on that later.

Continue on to read a few takeaways from the bracket reveal, and check back tomorrow morning for more from Fallis. His annual “Grading the Committee” piece will provide even more analysis.

THE FULL @NCAALAX DIVISION I WOMEN’S TOURNAMENT BRACKET. pic.twitter.com/5gOVg5vvpb

— USA Lacrosse Magazine (@USALacrosseMag) May 8, 2023

DENVER’S SEED IS CONSISTENT

Denver is the only undefeated team in Division I women’s lacrosse. At 19-0, the Pios have dominated every single opponent from a defensive standpoint. But, like the Stony Brook teams of the past several years, their schedule simply didn’t stack up to the four teams seeded above them.

Yes, Denver beat ACC champion Boston College head-to-head. But in terms of body of work, teams in the ACC will almost always have a better strength of schedule with at least a similar RPI. As long as RPI remains a pivotal factor in selection committee decisions, teams like Denver will continue to get this treatment. Whether it’s right or wrong for the field to be determined that way is a different — and maybe worthy — conversation.

Denver’s pod isn’t easy. The Pios get USC in the first round, and the next game would be against the Virginia-Albany winner.

THE LOYOLA POD

The committee only seeds eight teams, but based on Loyola’s pod, we can assume Stony Brook would have been seeded ninth. The Seawolves, fresh off a drubbing of Towson in the CAA title game, will hit the road for Baltimore for the second weekend in a row. They draw Penn State in the first round, while Loyola plays Fairfield.

Joe Spallina said Saturday that his squad won’t be your typical unseeded team. He thinks they’re peaking at a good time. Loyola-SBU, if it happens, could be one of the better games of the tournament.

FIRST THINGS FIRST

Well, in this case, third in our breakdown. Marquette and Army both earned their first NCAA tournament berths. Both also had somewhat similar narratives as the year progressed. Both relative afterthoughts in the preseason, their resumes steadily improved. Marquette plays Richmond in the first round, while Army plays seventh-seeded James Madison.

SECOND-SEEDED SYRACUSE?

Should Syracuse have been the second seed? Fallis predicted it on Sunday, though it is worth a discussion. Boston College won the ACC tournament championship game, and Syracuse — the top-ranked team for much of the 2023 — was bounced in the semifinals by North Carolina (which got the No. 4 seed).

Ordering those three teams was always going to be interesting, no matter the order. Syracuse getting the No. 2 seed means the committee valued the overall body of work and somewhat overlooked the poor last two weeks.

THE MOST COMPETITIVE POD

As interesting as the potential Loyola-Stony Brook matchup is, the deepest pod is in Harrisonburg, Va. James Madison will play Army in round one while also hosting Maryland and Drexel.

JMU-Maryland has become must-watch TV the past few seasons, so if that matchups were to present itself again, the atmosphere should be electric.