Beyond the Basics: Advanced Metrics That Define Every D-II Women's Top 20 Team

Lacrosse Reference goes beyond the box score. Beyond the basics, if you will.

Lacrosse Reference was created in 2016 with the goal of bringing the analytical methods used in other sports to college lacrosse. The site’s focus has been on finding innovative ways to compare teams and players that are more nuanced than the broad-brush metrics that were common at the time.

Analytics expert and Lacrosse Reference founder Zack Capozzi is back ahead of the Division II women’s season to provide insights on one advanced metric per Top 20 team.

For a glossary of terms, head here.

1. West Chester

The depth of experience within the West Chester roster is a significant asset, with a median rotation player having participated in 40 career games and a strong contingent of upperclassmen providing leadership. The presence of seasoned players, including 11 with at least 30 games under their belt, suggests a team well-versed in the rigors of competitive lacrosse and primed for success. And since they’ve lost Lindsay Monigle and her 36% share of the team’s assists from a year ago, they’ll need to lean on that experience if they are going to reach their potential this year.

2. Florida Southern

Florida Southern is gearing up for a challenging 2024 season, with a non-conference schedule projected to be the 2nd-toughest in the country. That is a significant step up from the previous year’s 12th-toughest non-conference slate. This rigorous lineup is set to test the Mocs early, especially during a demanding stretch from February 25 to March 7 that includes contests against Adelphi, Regis and defending champ Pace. Wingate is the last team during this stretch, and if that game is the oasis in the desert of tough opponents, that tells you something.

3. Tampa

Tampa’s defense was particularly strong in the early stages of an opponent’s possession. The Spartans’ defensive efficiency on possessions lasting between 20-40 seconds outperformed the national average by 6 percentage points. However, their effectiveness waned as possessions dragged on past the 60-second mark, where they were essentially just an average defense. It will be interesting to see if, in 2024, this defense, which finished 15th for opponent-adjusted efficiency, can address the (relative) weakness in longer possessions.

4. Pace

Pace faces a significant challenge heading into the season with only 30% of its offensive production returning from last year’s title run. The departures of key players like Kayla Conway, Aleya Corretjer and Emma Rafferty puts the spotlight on returning and new players to step up. Despite these departures, the Setters’ depth and the presence of Angelina Porcello, who was the highest play share player last year anyway, provide hope that Pace can maintain its competitive edge. If the Setters can fill in the gaps around Porcello, who finished with an individual efficiency rating in the 75th percentile, a title defense is certainly on the table.

5. Regis

Regis enters the season with a transformed roster, particularly on the defensive end, where only 55% of last year’s experience returns. They return keeper Brigit Goetsch, but the losses among field players pose a significant challenge as the team aims to replicate 2023’s 97th-percentile adjusted efficiency performance. The integration of new players and the development of team cohesion will be critical to maintaining their high defensive standards and achieving their championship goals.

6. Grand Valley State

Grand Valley State’s less-challenging schedule could be a double-edged sword, offering a path to a strong record but potentially leaving the team underprepared for postseason intensity. The LaxElo projections think that a 15-1 regular season record is the most likely outcome here. The 2024 schedule has dropped Findlay, Flagler, Regis and Rollins, against whom Grand Valley State has gone 6-3 in the shot clock era. The losses came against Rollins and Regis (twice).

7. UIndy

For UIndy’s defense, shooting percentage stood out as the most critical key to victory. No other metric drove such a stark contrast in outcomes. When the Greyhounds limited opponents to under a 50% shooting percentage, they were 9-0, while a shooting percentage above this mark correlated with a less favorable 1-3 record. Did UIndy win? Tell me how their opponent shot, and I’ll have a pretty good idea.

8. Maryville

Maryville’s Reagan Rukstad made a monumental leap in player efficiency last year, skyrocketing from the 21st to the 90th percentile. Player efficiency counts up how much good and bad you do on the field and adjusts it by how much opportunity you had. Her journey showcases a player’s capacity for growth and the impact it can have on the field, where her enhanced decision-making and ball control have become pivotal. While her shooting efficiency remains in the middle range, her overall progress is a testament to her dedication. If she can do the same magic on her shooting stroke this year, watch out.

9. Seton Hill

Perhaps the question for Seton Hill going into 2024 is in net. As a defense, the Griffins return 97% of their games played, and the unit was in the 88th percentile for opponent-adjusted efficiency. 2023 was a good year for this defense. But they lose Kyleigh Hessian and her 143 saves. Gia Castellano is the most experienced keeper on the roster and she saw ... eight shots last season. Whether Castellano or Allison Hathaway can claim the job will go a long way to answering the Griffins’ big question. 

10. East Stroudsburg

Emily Mitarotonda’s ball security and usage rate were pivotal in bolstering East Stroudsburg’s offense in 2023, with her ball security soaring to the 93rd percentile. Despite a dip in her assist rate compared to 2022, Mitarotonda’s consistent shooting efficiency, ranked in the 68th percentile, illustrates her ability to contribute to the team’s scoring efforts. That said, she’s proven herself as a shooter, but I wonder if the best version of her game would include an assist rate closer to what she managed in 2022. We’ll see what the 2024 season holds for her and her offense.

11. Flagler

Flagler’s offensive lineup looks strong, retaining a notable 88% of scoring from 2023. This retention includes standouts like Lexie Morton, whose elite efficiency is in the 89th percentile, and Carley Tepel, who took 15% of the team’s shots while also putting up an 89th-percentile efficiency rating. It was a unit that finished in the 92nd percentile for opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, and there’s every reason to believe that is the floor, not the ceiling.

12. Wingate

This season will see Wingate go up against a moderately tough schedule, which includes the projected 11th-toughest non-conference lineup, up from 21st last year. The Bulldogs’ overall strength-of-schedule is projected to come in at 47th. This scheduling approach acknowledges the weakness of their in-conference opponents and aims to prepare the team for postseason success by introducing some tougher teams, like Rollins, to give them that battle-tested edge.

13. Adelphi

Adelphi’s offense is poised for a transformation, integrating new talent like Marielle Colalillo from the transfer portal, while aiming to fill the void left by the departure of 66% of its offensive production. Colalillo’s role at New Haven, where she took 16% of shots and recorded 10% of assists, suggests that she could be an asset for an offense that was ranked in the 76th percentile last season. Returning players like Kerrin Heuser, Danielle Marino and Kelly-Ann McGrath must step up and synergize with incoming talent to ensure the offense continues to thrive without its former leading contributors like Izzy Grant.

14. Rollins

Rollins is facing a defensive conundrum, having returned just 50% of its defensive contributions as measured by games played among field players. On top of that, with the departure of Claire Barber, they Tars return just 22% of their saves from a year ago. Last year’s team finished in the 86th percentile for opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, but that strength is up in the air given what they’ve lost.

15. Kutztown

The upcoming season looks bright for Kutztown, with 98% of its draw control experience and 97% of its offensive production returning. This continuity suggests a strong potential for dominance in possession and offensive output, which was already ranked in the 67th percentile. The Golden Bears again have Emma Meakim and Lailah ElBouazzaoui spearheading the attack. Their median rotation player has played in a whopping 40 career games, so Kutztown’s depth and experience position the team well to build upon the success of 2023.

16. Embry-Riddle

Alexa Zeruto finished 2023 ranked in the 97th percentile for shooting efficiency, which is a variation on shooting percentage that takes into account whether non-goals were saved or missed off-cage. If she can pick up the ball security numbers, it will be an all-world statistical profile. And how cool is it that she’s back for another year with Kenley Zeruto, who really came on last season, increasing her share of the team’s shots from 3.7% in 2022 to 16.4% in 2023. That’s a pair to keep an eye on in 2024.

17. Saint Anselm

Saint Anselm faces a significant challenge with the departure of Lexi Palmisano, who played a crucial role on draw controls. The team retains only 38% of last year’s draw experience, so there are big shoes to fill. While the roster’s size offers depth and options, the team will need players like Erin Doyle and Alison Ferullo to maintain the draw control standards that were instrumental in last year’s success.

18. Mercy

Leena Moussa’s significant increase in offensive impact, from a 3.2% share of team shots in 2022 to 19.7% last year, is a testament to her growing role in Mercy’s attack. Despite this expanded role coming with a drop in her individual efficiency rating from 95 to 78, Moussa’s ball security improved. Given the larger role, some decline in efficiency is probably to be expected given the extra attention from opposing defenses. If she can boost that efficiency back toward the heights of her freshman year, we could have a star on our hands.

19. New Haven

The success of New Haven’s 2023 season was closely tied to its ability to avoid empty possessions. The team’s record was an impressive 9-1 when it managed to take more than 0.74 shots per possession. In contrast, a lower shot volume correlated with a less favorable 1-6 record. When New Haven got second chances and avoided turnovers, this offense was the engine that propelled it to victory. When the offense didn’t, it was an anchor that dragged the Chargers down into the depths of mediocrity.

20. Lynn

With the loss of Isabella Clark, Lynn’s offense is turning to transfers Elizabeth Tamasitis and Olivia Fox to help fill the void. Tamasitis, landing in the 53rd percentile for efficiency, and Fox, contributing a solid 6% of her former team’s total ground balls, are expected to bolster an offense that finished 2023 in the 74th percentile for opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency. They join Kristyn Johnson, Elizabeth Clagett and Mallory Jarka, who collectively combined for 38% of last season’s offensive production.