NCAA Bracketology: Patriot League, Rutgers, Yale Hold the Keys to Chaos

Whatever pressure that will be applied on the Division I men’s lacrosse at-large candidates is going to come from the potential of surprise teams winning conference tournaments.

It certainly isn’t going to be generated by programs trying to squeeze into the field without an automatic berth.

That possibility vanished when Michigan fell 11-8 at home to Rutgers in Saturday’s Big Ten quarterfinal. The Wolverines (7-7) lost their last two games and sit 14th in the RPI, three spots behind a Syracuse team that will face Notre Dame in Friday’s ACC semifinals.

That might not seem like an astronomical gap, especially since the Orange (9-5) have a relatively comparable profile on the surface.

Michigan has a road victory against a top-five team (Maryland) and two other top-20 victories against opponents that are below .500 (Johns Hopkins and Rutgers). Syracuse beat a top-10 team at home (Notre Dame) and picked off two top-20 teams that finished with losing records (Hopkins and Virginia).

But a deeper dig into the RPI — the actual number spit out by a formula that adds 25 percent of a team’s winning percentage, 50 percent of the opponents’ winning percentage and 25 percent of the opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage — suggests a divide far greater than three spots in the rankings. Syracuse sits at .61972, while Michigan is at .57202.

The difference of .0477 is slightly larger than the gap of .04755 between Syracuse and Cornell, which is third in the RPI at .66727. And since Michigan can’t do anything more to help itself, it’s still going to be well behind Syracuse in the RPI formula even if the Orange lose on Friday.

As for Harvard, another team on the right side of the edge of the at-large field, remember that it has victories over both Syracuse and Michigan to help its argument, along with two other top-20 victories (Boston U and Yale). With an RPI of 10 and a strength of schedule (15th) sure to improve just by taking the field against Princeton on Friday, the Crimson will also do well in a comparison with Michigan.

That leaves the intrigue for the week coming from three places.

* Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights (7-8) can’t finish at .500 or better unless they beat both Ohio State and the Maryland-Penn State winner in the Big Ten tournament. A Rutgers title run as a No. 5 seed would squeeze a current at-large team from the field. That’s not a concern with any of the other three remaining teams.

* Yale. The Bulldogs (5-7) occupy a similar position after dropping back-to-back games to close the regular season. They need to beat Cornell and the Princeton-Harvard winner in the Ivy League tournament to get in. If Yale loses, there won’t be an Ivy League bid thief.

* Patriot League. Army (12-1) could make a case for an at-large berth if it loses in the conference tournament, especially if Rutgers and Yale don’t emerge as bid snatchers. But no other Patriot League team will have an at-large case, so the likes of Duke, Harvard and Syracuse will be pulling for the Black Knights — especially if those programs lose the first game of their respective conference tournaments.

The full rundown as May draws ever closer …

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 28.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

If Cornell wins the Ivy League tournament, it’s going to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. And even if it loses this weekend, it isn’t going to fall far. The absolute worst-case scenario is probably the No. 4 seed. … Is there a set of potential outcomes that leaves Ohio State nervous come Sunday? Yes. Is there a set of potential outcomes that includes the Buckeyes beating Rutgers on Thursday that leaves them sweating? That’s a bit harder to see. …

A 12-4 Richmond with victories over Virginia and Saint Joseph’s anchoring its resume isn’t going to have enough oomph to land an at-large. (Not to mention, it probably won’t have a top-10 RPI anymore, either.) The Spiders need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament. … Army has the most interesting profile this season. The Black Knights can render the intrigue moot by winning two games in the Patriot League tournament this weekend. …

No team has ever won seven consecutive conference tournaments. Georgetown can break a tie with 1989-94 North Carolina by taking two games in the Mile High City to claim the Big East’s automatic berth. … Towson closed the regular season with victories over Fairfield and Hofstra. The Tigers get Hofstra on Thursday and would face Fairfield for the CAA title if the seeds hold in the semifinals. …

The Metro Atlantic is one-bid territory, but Sacred Heart still might be able to escape play-in territory if there’s a surprise winner in the Big East, CAA and possibly even the Atlantic 10 or Patriot. … Robert Morris won’t host the Northeast tournament after losing in overtime to Le Moyne. But since the Dolphins are ineligible for the NCAA tournament as part of their transition to Division I, the Colonials remain the projected automatic qualifier. …

Bryant handled UMass Lowell on Saturday to clinch the top seed in the America East. UMBC, which rested many of its starters in a non-conference loss to Holy Cross on Thursday, will be the No. 2 seed. … Utah was denied an outright Atlantic Sun regular-season title with its loss at Air Force, but it still secured the top seed for this week’s tournament in Jacksonville, Fla.

AT LARGE  (10 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Maryland moved up to No. 1 in the RPI without even playing. If the Terrapins beat Penn State on Thursday, they’re going to be all but assured a top-two seed no matter what happens elsewhere. … Princeton’s range of possible seeds entering this week is probably between No. 1 overall and No. 5. Whatever it is, the Tigers won’t be going on the road for the third year in a row to open the tournament. …

Penn State is comfortably in the field and almost certain to be at home for the first round. There really isn’t much separating the Nittany Lions from the top two teams in the ACC, so their seeding is in serious flux entering the week. … The math for both North Carolina and Notre Dame suggests that winning an ACC tournament game will assure them of a first-round NCAA home game. But that doesn’t mean a victory Friday is required to secure a seeded slot. …

Duke is vulnerable only to a massively chaotic week coupled with losing its ACC semifinal to North Carolina. And by the time that Friday evening game begins, it’s possible most of the potential chaos (Rutgers on Thursday, Yale earlier Friday) will have been eliminated. … The best thing Harvard has going for it is a victory over Syracuse, if only because the Orange are a team the Crimson will be compared to if things get tight at the edge of the field. …

On the subject of Syracuse, it could really use a second victory over Notre Dame as insurance against surprises elsewhere. … Michigan won’t be thieving a bid again this year. In fact, look for the Wolverines’ strength of schedule to gradually slip a handful of spots over the next week. …

Boston U is included for the sake of comparison, but the strength of schedule difference, the lone top-20 victory (Army) and the multiple significant losses mean the Terriers’ path to the postseason is the Patriot League’s automatic berth.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner
(8) Duke vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Notre Dame vs. Harvard
(4) Penn State vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(6) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Syracuse
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Bryant winner

Last three included: Duke, Harvard, Syracuse
First three on the outside: Michigan, Boston University, Fairfield

Moving in: Bryant, Georgetown
Moving out: UMBC, Villanova

Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner
(8) Duke vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Notre Dame vs. Harvard
(4) Penn State vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(6) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Syracuse
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Bryant winner

Last three included: Duke, Harvard, Syracuse
First three on the outside: Michigan, Boston U, Fairfield
Moving in: Bryant, Georgetown
Moving out: UMBC, Villanova
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)