NCAA Bracketology: Ivy Hopefuls Likely Squeezed from the Field

It’s finally here. Selection Sunday has come, and just four games remain between the men’s lacrosse selection committee’s verdict. But enough has snapped into place over the last few days to ensure there won’t be too many surprises during the Selection Show broadcast at 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2.

Michigan has already made its second consecutive Big Ten tournament title push as a No. 4 seed, serving as the biggest spoiler of the weekend. The Wolverines have once again established their bid-snatching bona fides, and with the way they dispensed of Johns Hopkins and Penn State, they do not look like a team anyone will wish to deal with next weekend.

The Big East might have been one-bid territory had Denver claimed its first conference tournament since 2015, but the Pioneers were bounced in the semifinals by Villanova. Georgetown needed overtime to knock off both Providence and Villanova, but the Hoyas will make their sixth consecutive NCAA trip.

Those two developments — Michigan winning the Big Ten, a non-Denver team claiming the Big East — has squeezed the field, much to the chagrin of the Ivy League. That group looked on track to land multiple bids all season barring chaos. But chaos came, and Sunday’s Penn-Princeton winner is likely the only Ivy team to move on past this weekend.

As for Saturday’s most unexpected trickle-down effect? Penn State taking a three-spot tumble and perhaps imperiling its chances of landing a home game. By the numbers, the Nittany Lions have a worse RPI and strength of schedule than Maryland, the Terrapins have a top-five victory that Penn State doesn’t, and the Nittany Lions have a loss outside the top 20.

Even with a 19-9 demolition of Maryland on Thursday (which offsets an earlier home loss to the Terps), Penn State could very well end up with a lower seed.

Look for an update in the mid-afternoon after the day’s four games — league finals in the ACC, Atlantic Sun, Ivy League and Patriot League — conclude. Here’s the state of play entering those contests …

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Sunday, May 5.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Georgetown matched 1989-94 North Carolina as the only Division I men’s lacrosse teams to win six consecutive conference tournament titles. The Hoyas have won every Big East tournament since 2018 (with no tournament in 2020) and will make their 17th NCAA tournament appearance after winning two overtime games in three days. … Princeton is in must-win territory on Sunday against Penn to extend its season. …

Michigan pulverized Penn State 16-4 in the Big Ten final to earn its second consecutive automatic bid. The Wolverines have to fly somewhere, and somebody has to fly to Denver. It’s hard to envision the committee passing on that pairing. … Saint Joseph’s pulled away from Richmond to win the Atlantic 10 final. The Hawks will make their second NCAA trip; their first was in 2022 when they lost to Yale. …

Towson is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019 after throttling Delaware 15-6 in the CAA. The Tigers will make their 16th all-time NCAA appearance and sixth under coach Shawn Nadelen. … Looks like Lehigh would be a good fit (both geographically and for competitive balance) to visit the No. 3 seed, which could be either Johns Hopkins or Syracuse, if it wins the Patriot League final. The Mountain Hawks are seeking their fourth NCAA trip and first since 2021. …

Utah meets Jacksonville (RPI: 26) in the Atlantic Sun final on Sunday. Both of those teams have to fly somewhere, and bracket integrity suggests Duke is the likely first-round destination for the winner. … Sacred Heart will make its NCAA tournament debut after rolling past Manhattan in the Metro Atlantic final. The Pioneers are looking at a Wednesday date in the play-in game. …

Albany fended off Vermont in the America East final to earn its 11th NCAA berth and first since 2018. The Great Danes are likely headed to the play-in game.

AT LARGE  (13 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame will be the No. 1 seed and Duke will be the No. 2 seed, and Sunday’s ACC title game isn’t going to change anything on that front. … Whatever the order, Johns Hopkins and Syracuse will be the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds despite conference semifinal losses. Bank on Hopkins getting funneled into a quarterfinal at Towson, while the Orange is ticketed to a quarterfinal at Hofstra if it wins its NCAA opener. …

Virginia will not end up with the No. 1 strength of schedule (Duke and Notre Dame should pass the Cavaliers on Sunday), but the gap in that category should be an asset in the conversation for the No. 5 seed. Virginia went 0-5 against the top four teams in the RPI and 10-0 against everyone else. … Denver has missed back-to-back NCAA tournaments and three of the last four, but the Pioneers are certain to hear their name called Sunday night. …

Can the committee seed Maryland ahead of a Penn State team it just lost to by 10 on a neutral field? Remember, the Terrapins’ victory on the road against the Nittany Lions still counts, too. … There isn’t an overwhelming resume argument to include Penn over Maryland or Penn State right now, and a loss to Princeton in the Ivy final wouldn’t help. The Quakers need to win to get in. …

Cornell lost to Michigan in last year’s NCAA tournament and might be the team just on the outside looking in this year thanks to the Wolverines’ Big Ten tournament title. … Looks like Yale will be shut out of the postseason (Ivy League tournament included) in a year the Bulldogs took the field for the first time since 2014. …

If Boston University beats Lehigh in the Patriot final, its most logical destination would be Syracuse. But ever-trusty Google Maps says it’s 400 miles on the button from Nickerson Field to Homewood Field, so perhaps a trip to Hopkins would be in play. … Army remains included for comparative purposes, but the Black Knights aren’t going to land an at-large bid.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal host and CAA champion Towson will be funneled into its home site.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. IVY/Princeton
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)