NCAA Bracketology: All Eyes on Michigan ... Again

There was an easy way to sort out the postseason picture this week. College lacrosse chose the hard way.

Coming into Thursday’s conference tournaments, the path to a stress-free weekend involved Cornell, Denver, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins and Yale all winning their respective league semifinals. They proceeded to compile a combined 1-4 record over the last two days, and Georgetown required overtime to survive Providence and account for the lone victory.

The simplified upshot of all that has unfolded? All eyes will be on Michigan in the Big Ten title game. Again.

A year ago, the Wolverines muscled past Ohio State and Penn State to advance to the league final, then plowed through Maryland to earn their first NCAA tournament appearance and snatch a bid from the at-large field (one that notably might have gone to Denver in Bill Tierney’s college coaching swan song).

Michigan can finish replicating that surprise Big Ten title run Saturday. This time, the party likely to be squeezed is an Ivy League team, especially after both Cornell and Yale lost on Friday. (With a different set of results, Maryland might have looked like the most vulnerable option among the projected at-larges.)

There are five other conference championships throughout the day — the Metro Atlantic (11 a.m.), the Atlantic 10 (1 p.m.), the America East (3), the CAA (3:30) and the Big East (5). But no game will clear up more about the at-large picture than the Big Ten final at 8 p.m.

The rundown through Friday’s games …

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Saturday, May 4.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Penn State’s seeding ceiling is probably the No. 5 spot, and its floor is probably the No. 7 seed. The two teams in the same range — Virginia and Denver — don’t play this weekend, while the Nittany Lions face Michigan in the Big Ten final. … Georgetown goes for its sixth consecutive Big East tournament title Saturday against Villanova. …

Princeton turned back Yale for the second time in seven days, and now the Tigers are the highest-seeded team left in the Ivy tournament. They need to beat Penn in Sunday’s final; there isn’t much reason to think Princeton would get in over a Cornell team that not only holds a head-to-head win, but also doesn’t have a noteworthy loss like the Tigers’ stumble at Brown. …

Saint Joseph’s plays for its second NCAA berth in three years when it faces Richmond (RPI: 23) in the Atlantic 10 final. … Towson will try to end a five-year NCAA drought when it plays host to Delaware (RPI: 29) in the CAA title game. …

Lehigh had played seven consecutive games decided by two goals or less before bouncing Navy 12-8 in the Patriot League semifinals. The Mountain Hawks are the top remaining seed and will meet Boston University on Sunday. … Utah has scored an average of 18.75 goals during its eight-game winning streak. The Utes’ 21-5 thrashing of Cleveland State moved them into an Atlantic Sun title game matchup with Jacksonville. …

Sacred Heart plays for its first NCAA tournament appearance in Saturday’s Metro Atlantic title game at Manhattan (RPI: 33). … Albany aims for its 11th NCAA trip since 2003 — but first since 2019 — when it meets Vermont (RPI: 37) in the America East final.

AT LARGE  (14 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Nothing to see here, just Notre Dame arguably stitching together its best game of the season. The Fighting Irish won’t get dislodged from the No. 1 seed even if it loses to Duke in Sunday’s ACC final. … On the subject of Duke, the Blue Devils’ pounding of Syracuse should effectively sew up the No. 2 seed. They won’t see Notre Dame again after Sunday any earlier than Memorial Day. …

The net effect of Johns Hopkins’ Big Ten quarterfinal loss is probably going to be to drop a seed or two. The committee has an interesting decision with the Blue Jays and Syracuse: Prioritize head-to-head and/or high-end victories, or reward Hopkins for breadth of accomplishments and (slightly) better metrics. The Blue Jays and Orange are on track to be the No. 3 and 4 seeds, in some order. …

Yes, Virginia has lost four in a row and doesn’t have much meat to its profile besides a victory at Maryland. On the other, are there even seven teams that have earned a better seed than the Cavaliers? Short answer: No. It's hard to see how Virginia falls any lower than a No. 7 seed. … Denver is looking at a No. 5, 6 or 7 seed. And if Michigan wins the Big Ten, bank on the Wolverines getting a ticket to the Mile High City. …

Maryland was really helped by Cornell’s loss to Penn. The Terrapins were a bit vulnerable to chaos going into Friday, but it would be a surprise at this point if they don’t extend their NCAA tournament streak to 21. … Could Penn survive a loss in the Ivy title game? Those two victories over Cornell would probably make a big difference in sorting out that lost spot, assuming Penn State isn’t bumped to the at-large pool. …

Two things Cornell needs: Victories by Penn State on Saturday and Penn on Sunday. The Big Red would probably get the better of Princeton and/or Yale for the last spot in the field in that scenario. … Between its own loss, Penn beating Cornell and Denver losing to diminish its best victory, not a whole lot went well for Yale this week. The math isn’t looking good for the Bulldogs. …

Michigan is going to be quite unpopular in a few Ivy League precincts on Saturday. The Wolverines won’t land an at-large bid if they lose to Penn State, but they’ve found their mojo during a three-game winning streak. … The four significant losses are why Boston University’s only path to the tournament is to beat Lehigh on Sunday. …

The chart tells the tale for Patriot League regular season champ Army: There just isn’t enough there. The Black Knights’ season ended with Friday’s overtime loss to Boston U. … Villanova needs to win its first Big East tournament to extend its season beyond Saturday.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal host Towson would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Maryland vs. Penn

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Denver vs. IVY/Princeton
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn
First three on the outside: Cornell, Yale, Michigan
Moving in: Lehigh, Penn, Princeton
Moving out: Army, Cornell, Yale
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)