NCAA Bracketology: Is Cornell a Lock for the No. 1 Seed?

The NCAA men’s lacrosse committee released a late-season top 10 on Saturday, updated through Friday’s three games. Let’s just say it was inconsistent with the final brackets produced in recent memory.

At the top was Cornell, a team just about anyone would agree has done fine work on the field. It has the Tewaaraton favorite in CJ Kirst, and no one would blink if the Big Red ended up the No. 1 seed in two weeks.

But given how explicitly numbers-driven the selection process is, it’s hard to imagine how Cornell would have been the top seed entering Saturday. The Big Red had an RPI of 4 (and since moved up to No. 3) and a strength of schedule of 10 (which has since fallen to 13th).

The NCAA’s RPI archive (which you can dig into here for seasons through 2020 and here for seasons since 2021) goes back to 2009. Through all those years, the committee hasn’t reached down to assign the No. 4 team in the RPI a No. 1 seed. It hasn’t even reached down to the No. 2 team in the RPI since 2015.

NO. 1 SEEDS (SINCE 2009)

Another team that stood out was Army, slotted at No. 7. Like Cornell, anyone who has seen the Black Knights wouldn’t quibble with that placement. But once again, the numbers — No. 7 in the RPI and No. 23 in strength of schedule through Friday — aren’t as favorable.

In Army’s defense, there was a team outside the top five in the RPI and with a strength of schedule of 20th or below to land a home game just last year. But 2024 Georgetown was the first team to get seeded while checking both of those criteria since 2018 Loyola.

In other words, that was an unusual but defensible choice in the context of the last 15 NCAA tournaments.

SEEDED TEAMS W/ RPI OF 6+, SOS of 20+ (SINCE 2009)

There was still the bulk of one weekend and the entirety of two more still to play after that rankings release, so perhaps it isn’t worth making too much of any of this. For example, Army plummeted to 11th in the RPI and 27th in the strength of schedule even as it blasted 5-8 Bucknell on Saturday.

That puts the Black Knights in dicey territory in case they need an at-large. That wasn’t something the committee’s top 10 was concerned with over the weekend, but it’s worth illustrating that Army is far from a sure thing for an at-large berth if it falls in next weekend’s Patriot League tournament.

AT-LARGE TEAMS W/ RPI of 10+, SOS of 20+ (Since 2009)

That 2021 Rutgers team was a COVID-era anomaly that was part of the Big Ten’s closed-circuit season. And more than half of those are more than a dozen years in the past.

Could Army go against those trends? No doubt, the Black Knights would most prefer to beat Loyola, win twice in the Patriot League tournament, get to 14-1 and take the matter of selection away from the committee’s whims.

Speaking of which, the top 10 announced Saturday either represents a considerable break with how the committee makes decisions, or there wasn’t the same sort of rigorous data dive that accompanies the actual selection process each May. Here’s guessing it was the latter, and that this top 10 is largely forgotten by the time the actual bracket is unveiled in two Sundays.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 21.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

This isn’t like last year; Cornell isn’t going to get bumped out of the field if it loses in the Ivy League tournament. The Big Red’s defeat of Harvard further fortifies its profile. … Ohio State heads into the Big Ten tournament as winners of 12 of 13 and now owns a head-to-head victory over the best at-large candidate outside of the field (Michigan). …

Army dropped from sixth in the RPI heading into Friday to seventh after Friday (thanks to losses by earlier opponents Navy and Rutgers) to 11th after Saturday (thanks mainly to simply taking the field against No. 53 Bucknell). Playing No. 56 Loyola on Friday isn’t going to help, either. … Richmond blasted UMass on the way to clinching the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament. …

Towson jumps out of play-in territory after upending 12-2 Fairfield to lock up the outright CAA regular-season title. The Tigers can get to both the Research Triangle and Central New York (not to mention places like Penn State and Princeton) within a 400-mile drive, so they could provide the committee with some useful geographic flexibility if they win their league tournament. …

Villanova’s late surge against Marquette clinched it a share of the Big East regular-season title. The Wildcats can lock up the top seed with a victory at Georgetown on Friday. … Sacred Heart took an RPI tumble when it beat Mount St. Mary’s on Saturday, but the Pioneers can now clinch MAAC tournament hosting rights with a victory over Manhattan on Wednesday. Canisius’ loss to Siena opened the door to that. …

UMBC holds the RPI advantage over Bryant, but a head-to-head loss means the Retrievers need help to end up as the America East’s No. 1 seed. Bryant can lock up hosting duties with a defeat of UMass Lowell on Saturday. … Robert Morris (Northeast) and Utah (Atlantic Sun) both remained undefeated in conference play with lopsided victories on Saturday. The major prize for both with be next month’s league tournaments; neither has a shot at an at-large.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Princeton is pretty much out of games it can lose that could cost it an NCAA tournament first round home game. The Tigers close the regular season Saturday against Yale. … Maryland also might as well start selling tickets for a home game on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament. In fact, it’s hard to envision a way for the Terrapins to end up any lower than the No. 4 seed if they lose their first Big Ten tourney game, and even that seems a bit unlikely. …

Penn State is probably getting a first-round home game as well, no matter what it does in the Big Ten tournament. Sure, there are a bunch of ACC teams right behind them set to get RPI-boosting games in their league tournament, but no more than one of them is making it through the next two weeks without a loss. … Notre Dame got exactly what it needed with Saturday’s victory at North Carolina. The Irish close the regular season against Penn, then will be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in ACC tournament. …

Even with the loss to Notre Dame, North Carolina is still in solid shape. Its matchup at Syracuse on Saturday does figure to carry some seeding implications. … Duke secured some much-needed space between itself and the edge of the field with its victory over Syracuse. The Blue Devils are a triumph at Virginia away from being vulnerable to only an ultra-chaotic conference tournament week. …

Notre Dame and Duke were the ACC teams that had more to gain (tournament-wise, at least) last week and they won. This week, that distinction goes to Syracuse, which finds itself right on the line of earning a first-round home game. A victory over North Carolina would help on that front. … Harvard’s task this week is to do itself no harm. The Crimson won’t gain anything by beating 3-9 Brown, but it certainly would be damaging if it lost. …

It's the same old song for Michigan, which has work to do in the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines won the event the last two years, and they’re going to need to reach at least the title game to make a third consecutive NCAA appearance. … While Saint Joseph’s, Fairfield and Boston U are all having fine seasons, their strength of schedules, lack of high-end victories and significant losses mean they need to win their respective conference tournaments to earn an NCAA invite.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Robert Morris-AMERICA EAST/UMBC winner
(8) Duke vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Notre Dame vs. Harvard
(4) Penn State vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Princeton vs. BIG EAST/Villanova
(6) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Syracuse
(2) IVY/Cornell vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner

Last three included: Duke, Harvard, Syracuse
First three on the outside: Michigan, Boston U, Saint Joseph’s
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)