Bracketology: Significant Bubble Shakeups Following Initial Bracket Forecast

Just a week after our initial bracketology forecast, the women’s Division I field saw multiple results shake things up significantly. Teams around the bubble, as well as those fighting for a seed and hosting rights, were jostled around.

Because additional data points continue to be included in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), teams are still able to jump or fall, sometimes dozens of spots at a time, depending on their results and the results of their opponents.

For example, Yale was rated 23rd in the RPI before beating Army in the middle of the week and losing to Penn on the weekend. The Bulldogs saw their strength of schedule (SOS) rise 10 spots to 31st, and their RPI move to 15th. More drastically, Penn’s solid week moved it from the 40s up to 23rd. Not only are the Quakers in line for the Ivy League’s automatic bid, but they could also stick around as an at-large team if they don’t win their conference tournament.

ACC action results in a seeding swap, at-large team falling out.

The ever-competitive ACC had a thrilling game between Boston College and Notre Dame that resulted in the Eagles taking a crucial 12-11 win over the Irish. That victory propelled BC back into the top 10 in the RPI and dropped Notre Dame out of a seeding slot.

Additionally, Duke is reeling. Virginia Tech sprung an upset of the Blue Devils on April 1, and Saturday’s loss to Virginia left them 1-6 in conference play. Worse, they’re 6-7 overall, which means they would be ineligible for NCAA tournament due to being under .500. A pick-me-up game against High Point awaits Tuesday night, as does a must-win game at Louisville on Saturday because North Carolina looms on April 20.

Duke’s recent failures are someone else’s gains. This week, it’s the likes of Drexel, Army and Richmond. Those three are the final teams in our field, while Navy also dropped out after its upset loss to Boston U. Another bubble squad, Princeton, suffered a setback, this time to Saint Joseph’s. That loss saw the Tigers tumble 14 spots to 34th in the RPI.

Boston College, Florida enter top eight picture.

The Eagles’ win over Notre Dame gets them back into the seeding picture, but we also have another new team joining them in Florida.

The Gators were essentially the first team out of seeding last week, but their numbers continue to be impressive (9th RPI, 15th SOS), and a valuable win over Loyola earlier this season helps, too. That leaves Stony Brook as the first unseeded squad despite a No. 7 RPI.

Stony Brook’s best wins are against Yale, Drexel and Michigan. Florida also beat Michigan. It’s possible that numbers shift, and the Seawolves’ resume looks better to get them in the top eight again.

Notre Dame’s heartbreaking loss to BC was tough to stomach. A victory over the Eagles would have solidified a spot and maybe even snuck it above Maryland in the No. 6 spot.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LaxReference.com, as of Monday, April 10), not human polls. First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For 2023, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

Syracuse ACC

Northwestern Big Ten

Denver Big East

James Madison AAC

Stony Brook CAA

Loyola Patriot

UMass A-10

Penn Ivy

Liberty ASUN

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

Mercer Big South

USC Pac-12

Central Michigan MAC

Wagner NEC

Syracuse has two of its toughest games of the year left in the regular season — a road game at North Carolina on Saturday and a Thursday night tussle against Boston College next week … Northwestern held steady in its East Coast trip in wins at Rutgers and Albany … Denver has a tricky schedule this weekend, as it hosts Stanford on Friday before flying out to Cincinnati for a Sunday morning game at Xavier.

James Madison boasts four top 15 victories during its 13-game winning streak … Stony Brook has won four in a row before a road game at Rutgers, which looked to be a more competitive game on paper in preseason …  Loyola has a competitive week ahead with a road game at Princeton before hosting upstart Army on Saturday.

UMass is rolling through the Atlantic 10 with ease and should have no problem with VCU on the road … Penn takes the top spot in the Ivy after its dominant win over Yale. The Quakers seem to be peaking at the right time with Cornell coming to Franklin Field on Saturday … Liberty hosts a fun non-conference matchup against Florida on Wednesday before returning to ASUN play …

Albany meets Binghamton in Vestal for the top spot in the America East … Fairfield has a sparkling No. 30 RPI as of this posting with three narrow losses to projected NCAA teams, making the Stags a possible upset favorite this May … Mercer will be favored to win all its games the rest of the way in the Big South.

USC is back atop the Pac-12 by defeating Stanford in the return engagement. The Women of Troy can all but sew up the regular season title with a victory at Colorado on Friday … Central Michigan remains in line for the top seed in the MAC … Wagner returns to action against Sacred Heart on Wednesday after an 11-day layoff.

AT-LARGE (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

North Carolina ACC

Maryland Big Ten

Boston College ACC

Florida AAC

Notre Dame ACC

Virginia ACC

UConn Big East

Michigan Big Ten

Yale Ivy

Drexel CAA

Army Patriot

Marquette Big East

Villanova Big East

Penn State Big Ten

Navy Patriot

Richmond A-10

Clemson ACC

East Carolina AAC

Towson CAA

Stanford Pac-12

Princeton Ivy

Virginia Tech ACC

North Carolina has a golden opportunity to get back into the top three with a road game at East Carolina and a home game against No. 1 Syracuse … Maryland has another chance on Thursday to pick up a quality win against Penn State in Happy Valley … Boston College is No. 7 in this week’s field thanks to its exciting win over Notre Dame.

Florida sneaks in at No. 8 in this week’s field with a top 15 SOS and a No. 9 RPI. The Gators can add a fourth top 25 RPI win when it plays Liberty this week and hosts ECU … Notre Dame’s win over UNC couldn’t be backed up with another top victory against BC … Virginia has also nipped Notre Dame this season.

UConn gets a quality test at Marquette on Saturday … Michigan finally got a win over an NCAA tournament team by beating Penn State … Yale had a mixed week in beating Army but falling to Penn and losing a grip on the Ivy’s first-place position.

Drexel sneaks in the field this week as Duke dips below .500. The Dragons can’t afford to stumble between now and the CAA championship game … Army lost to Yale before a two-week stretch against Loyola and Navy. A split might be enough to get the Black Knights into the NCAA tournament for the first time … Marquette gets its first Big East test when it hosts UConn, and a win would do wonders for the Eagles’ at-large and conference championship prospects.

Villanova is our first team left out of the field. Its most significant win was over Navy, and the Mids lost to Boston U. Chances exist for both teams to earn significant victories before their conference tournaments … Penn State fell back to the bubble after a narrow loss to Michigan. A split of Maryland and Johns Hopkins might be required to stay in the field.

Richmond’s RPI continues to slip, now down to 28th. The Spiders hold on to that victory over Virginia as its most prized asset … Clemson’s win over Duke loses its shine more each day. There remains the potential to go 4-5 in ACC play before the conference tournament with games against Virginia Tech and Pitt remaining … East Carolina has three nice opportunities to scoop program-defining wins in the next three weeks: vs. UNC (Tuesday), at Florida (Saturday) and against JMU (April 29).

Towson is climbing the RPI and looming as a potential at-large team. The RPI is now 31st; a win over Drexel is quite helpful. The Tigers are the fourth team left out in this week’s field … Stanford is back in the at-large bucket, needing the Pac-12 conference title as entry to the NCAA tournament … Princeton is likely looking to the AQ in the Ivy League tournament at this point … Virginia Tech is a sleeper at-large team if it can win its final four regular season games against Clemson, Old Dominion, Furman and Virginia.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Syracuse, N.Y.

Yale vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (1) Syracuse (ACC)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Florida
Notre Dame vs. USC (Pac-12)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (4) North Carolina
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Richmond

Harrisonburg, Va.

Wagner (NEC) at (5) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Virginia vs. Drexel

Evanston, Ill.

Michigan vs. Marquette
Winner plays at (2) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Newton, Mass.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Boston College
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Denver, Colo.

UMass (A-10) vs. Penn (IVY)
Winner plays at (3) Denver (BIG EAST)

College Park, Md.

Liberty (ASUN) at (6) Maryland
UConn vs. Army West Point

Last Four In: Penn State, Drexel, Army, Richmond
Last Four Out: Villanova, Navy, Clemson, Towson
Moving In: Drexel, Penn, USC
Moving Out: Duke, Stanford, Navy
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Big East (3), Patriot League (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), CAA