NCAA Bracketology: Will Seeding or Selection be Hardest?

It’s conference tournament week, and that traditionally means chaos.

Yet it wouldn’t take much to snuff it out of the NCAA lacrosse committee’s process of stitching together the at-large field.

In fact, just five steps — with varying degrees of difficulty — are required to make the committee’s toughest task seeding rather than selection.

The first potential bid snatcher to take the field this week is Big East tournament host Villanova. The fourth-seeded Wildcats (8-6, 2-3) will face Denver on Thursday in the conference semifinals on the same field the Pioneers secured a 9-6 victory on March 30. Villanova, with an RPI of 22 and no top-20 victories, doesn’t have a path to an at-large.

Teams living near the edge of the field will also have an eye on the Big Ten semifinals, paying particular attention to fourth-seeded Michigan. The Wolverines (8-6) made a run from this spot last year, and just like in 2023, they dispatched Ohio State in the conference quarterfinals. The only remaining potential bid thief in the Big Ten field, Michigan faces top-seeded Johns Hopkins in Columbus, Ohio. Hopkins won the regular-season meeting 15-11 on March 30.

The Thursday watch list is capped back in the Big East with third-seeded Providence (7-7, 3-2) meeting second-seeded Georgetown. The Hoyas would likely be inside the field heading into the week, but they’re far from a sure thing and will be playing both for their own postseason hopes and to attempt to sweep away an unpredictable element.

And the Friars, who have won three of four and have reached double figures in goals in all but three games, can be dangerous. Georgetown has that in it, too; the Hoyas uncorked nine consecutive goals in a 15-10 victory in Providence in yet another March 30 game.

On Friday, the Ivy League semifinals feature a pair of teams that each need to win at least one more game to scrap their way into the field.

Princeton (9-4, 4-2), the No. 2 seed, gets an immediate rematch with Yale after pummeling the Bulldogs 15-8 on Saturday. And don’t forget the Tigers’ two blowout victories over Yale last year: 23-10 in the regular season and 19-10 in the Ivy title game. With Princeton’s defense playing well, the Tigers are probably the team best-positioned to inject chaos into the selection process.

The Ivy nightcap is also significant, as fourth-seeded Penn (8-5, 4-2) needs to defeat tournament host Cornell to stay in the postseason hunt. The Quakers have already done it once this season, an 11-10 double-overtime triumph on (when else?) March 30. Repeat that effort, and Penn will both make it more difficult for the committee to leave it out and earn the chance to take it out of the committee’s hands entirely.

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Wednesday, May 1.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Johns Hopkins’ three top-10 victories are more than anyone other than Notre Dame (five) and Syracuse (three), and it leads the country in top-10 victories. The Blue Jays have the second-best profile after Duke’s loss to North Carolina. … Beating Marquette didn’t help Denver, but losing that lightning-delayed game might have threatened the Pioneers’ chances of hosting a first-round game. It’s hard to see Denver getting sent on the road for its opener at this point. …

Cornell spent last weekend trying to clinch homefield advantage for the Ivy tournament, which it did when Yale lost to Princeton. The Big Red, which claimed the outright regular-season title with a victory at Dartmouth, can make the case for a home NCAA tournament game with a couple more victories this weekend. … Army will go for back-to-back NCAA berths for the first time since 2003-05. The Black Knights will need to win twice at home in the Patriot League tournament to make that happen. …

Saint Joseph’s takes a 10-game winning streak into the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Hawks are also 10-0 in two A-10 regular seasons, but a loss this weekend in Amherst, Mass., will end their season without the program’s second NCAA berth. … Towson capped its first perfect CAA regular season since 2004 with an 11-10 defeat of Delaware on Friday. The Tigers get Drexel on Thursday in the semifinals. …

Utah, Air Force and Jacksonville shared the Atlantic Sun regular season title, and all three are prime candidates to end up playing Denver in the first round if they win the conference tournament. Air Force could make the drive to face the Pioneers, while Jacksonville and Utah would have to fly to any first-round host anyway. Why not send them to an opponent that would need anyone other than Air Force to fly to them. …

Sacred Heart will meet Siena (RPI: 55) in the Metro Atlantic semifinals after the Saints dispatched Marist in Saturday’s quarterfinals. No. 3 seed Manhattan (37), the tournament host, will face second-seeded LIU (41) in the other semifinal. The MAAC winner is likely headed to the play-in game. … Albany drubbed Binghamton on Saturday to secure an outright America East regular season title. With Vermont (RPI: 39), Merrimack (46) and UMBC (51) also in the field, chances are good the America East will produce a play-in game participant.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

There is plenty to sort out over the next week, but one thing that isn’t going to change is the identity of the No. 1 seed. Bank on Notre Dame taking the top slot and playing host to the play-in game winner, likely in a Sunday afternoon game in the tournament’s opening weekend. … Rather than bicker about whether Duke or Syracuse is better positioned for the No. 3 seed at the moment, just let the teams sort it out on the field Friday in the ACC semifinals. The Orange won the regular-season meeting 10-4. …

Even with its three-game losing streak, Virginia is still well-positioned to land a first-round home game. Still, there is one scenario where the math might put the Cavaliers on the road: A loss to Notre Dame on Friday, and Cornell, Georgetown and the Maryland/Penn State winner claiming their respective conference tournaments. …

A defeat of Penn State means Maryland is going to play a first-round home game for the fourth year in a row. A loss leaves the Terps vulnerable to getting sent on the road, especially if Penn State and Cornell win their leagues. … Penn State did what it needed to in the Big Ten quarterfinals, dispatching Rutgers for the second time in as many weeks. It would take unbridled chaos for the Nittany Lions to get squeezed out of the tournament. A victory over Maryland likely secures a first-round home game. …

Yale’s profile didn’t get damaged too much by its loss to Princeton. Still, the Bulldogs are leaning heavily on their victory at Denver, and the daylight between them and the last at-large spot shrank a bit on Saturday. Their tournament hopes are vulnerable to wackiness this week, especially if they drop a second game to Princeton. … Georgetown could get over the line if it defeats Providence in the Big East semifinals so long as there isn’t chaos elsewhere. That’s a monster-sized caveat. The Hoyas still can have some certainty if they win their sixth league tournament in a row next week. …

Penn (at Cornell) and Princeton (against Yale) need to win their respective Ivy League semifinals to stay in the conversation. Both of them winning on Friday would put incredible pressure on Georgetown if it is playing in the Big East final the next afternoon. … With North Carolina now the No. 20 team in the RPI, Michigan’s only has one top-20 RPI win. It had three, but two came against 6-9 Ohio State, which which is now No. 21 in the RPI. The Wolverines’ path to the tournament is with two more Big Ten tournament victories. …

North Carolina is on the board mainly for illustrative purposes. The Duke victory was stirring, but it didn’t vault the Tar Heels into the ACC tournament. The profile as it stands isn’t enough to come too close to an at-large.

PROJECTED BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal host Towson would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Towson, Md.

(5) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(4) Duke vs. COASTAL/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Princeton, Michigan
Moving in: None.
Moving out: None.
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)