NCAA Bracketology: Razor-Thin Margin Between Duke, Notre Dame

How close are Duke and Notre Dame in the RPI?

Put it this way: The two swapped spots after Tuesday’s two Division I games, and neither the Blue Devils nor the Fighting Irish took the field. When Syracuse (which just fell to Notre Dame over the weekend) lost to Cornell, it dented the Irish’s strength of schedule metrics just enough for Duke to nose ahead.

Fortunately, any bickering about the No. 1 seed can get (temporarily) sorted out when the two teams play Sunday. And after they take turns facing Virginia later this month. And when the revived ACC tournament unfolds in early May in Charlotte, N.C.

Those three are a combined 25-4 and already occupy the top three spots in the RPI. Given just how often they are likely to face each other over the next four and a half weeks, one of them will almost certainly wind up the top seed when the NCAA lacrosse committee releases its 17-team bracket on May 5.

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Wednesday, April 3.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Johns Hopkins sits alone atop the Big Ten after two weeks of conference play. Owning one of the best victories on the board (at Virginia) will help the Blue Jays’ seeding prospects. Being one of two top-10 teams with a loss outside the Top 20 will not. … Denver plays three of its next four at home after opening its Big East schedule with a 9-6 smothering of Villanova. The Pioneers’ opening victory against Hopkins comes into play when sorting out seeding this week.

With Yale (10th in the RPI), Princeton (14th) and Harvard (17th) still to come, Penn’s strength of schedule is going to improve by the end of the month. … Army takes over the projected top spot in the Patriot League. Its RPI is better than Boston U (19th), Colgate (23rd) and Navy (24th), all of which also have one conference loss. …

Conversely, three of the final four regular season opponents for Saint Joseph’s rank 48th or worse in the RPI. But forget the metrics; the Hawks’ path to the NCAA tournament revolves around winning two games in the Atlantic 10 tournament. … There’s a similar problem looming for Towson, which gets Monmouth (45th), Hofstra (54th) and Hampton (76th). The Tigers’ reality is the same, too: They need to win their conference tournament to get in. …

An early May hypothetical comes into focus a month early: If Air Force wins the Atlantic Sun and isn’t in the play-in game, and if Denver is a top four or five seed, pairing the two in the first-round will be an easy flight-saving measure for the committee. … Sacred Heart has won five in a row, including a 17-6 thumping of LIU on Saturday. The Pioneers welcome Wagner for their regular-season home finale this weekend before closing with three road games in a row. …

Albany is the only team without a conference loss left in the America East. The Great Danes welcome Bryant on Saturday in a game that could go a long way to determining the conference’s tournament hosting duties.

AT LARGE  (17 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

A safe assumption: The No. 1 seed in this exercise next week will be whoever wins Sunday’s game between Notre Dame and Duke in Durham, N.C. … Virginia’s strength of schedule is a bit weaker than the rest of the top-tier teams at the moment, but April games against Duke, Syracuse and Notre Dame (plus potentially next month’s ACC tournament) should solve that problem. …

Maryland’s postseason prospects flipped in less than an hour on Sunday night when it rallied past Penn State. The Terrapins went from having a severely reduced margin for error to simply make the tournament to being in position to play at home in the first round. … Cornell had a similar experience Tuesday with its comeback victory over Syracuse. The Big Red would be clinging to a spot in the field had it lost. Instead, it has a second top-10 triumph to go with its defeat of Yale.

Having Syracuse back in the hunt for a home tournament game means an old tradition could return: The Orange playing host to the Sunday night game to cap the first weekend. … Penn State is helped right now by their victories over Cornell and Yale. But that opening loss to Colgate makes it one of two teams in the top 10 of the RPI with a loss to a team outside the top 20. …

With Penn paying a visit to New Haven, this would be a good weekend for Yale to shore up its postseason prospects. … The best thing Georgetown can do? Keep stacking victories. Next week’s trip to Denver is a major opportunity, but the Hoyas must contend with struggling Marquette first. …

Given its combination of talent and inexperience, Princeton’s 7-3 record looks pretty good right now, and the Tigers (whose losses came against Cornell, Duke and Maryland) have done nothing to disqualify themselves from at-large consideration. But to keep those chances alive, they’re going to have to beat at least one of Penn or Yale later this month. …

The bad news for Michigan is it was too sloppy to exploit an early faceoff advantage at Johns Hopkins. The good news for the Wolverines is their victory over Maryland got a bit more valuable. … Everyone else on the board either lacks multiple high-end victories or has a couple eyebrow-raising losses. Two teams that can solve the first problem are Harvard and Ohio State. The Crimson still has trips to Penn and Cornell this month, while the Buckeyes face Maryland and Johns Hopkins the next two weekends.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Towson would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Syracuse vs. Yale

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Air Force
(6) Maryland vs. IVY/Penn

Towson, Md.

(7) Cornell vs. Penn State
(2) Duke vs. ACC/Towson

Last three included: Syracuse, Penn State, Yale
First three on the outside: Georgetown, Princeton, Michigan
Moving in: Albany, Penn, Sacred Heart
Moving out: Colgate, Quinnipiac, UMBC
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)