NCAA Bracketology: Three B1G Teams Left Out of the Field

This year’s Division I men’s lacrosse tournament has the makings of one that will be without some familiar faces — yet also lacking in new ones.

With less than a month before Selection Sunday, Johns Hopkins (6-5) would be on the outside looking in after suffering three consecutive losses to open Big Ten play. Meanwhile, Virginia (5-6) wouldn’t even be eligible if the tournament began now after falling below .500 with its 18-9 loss to North Carolina.

Hopkins has missed only four of the 53 NCAA tournaments held since the event was established in 1971. Virginia has only 10 absences. And just once — in 2013 — have both bluebloods been shut out of the postseason.

Yet it’s not as if the possible field is brimming with upstarts unfamiliar with playing into at least the middle of May. Half of the programs in this week’s projected USA Lacrosse Magazine 18-team bracket were in last year’s tournament. Another three made it in 2023, and four more have “only” a two-year drought to reckon with.

(“Only” is a relative term, of course, for anyone who invests in the full cycle of a season and is trying to avoid a third consecutive missed tournament.)

That leaves North Carolina, which has sat firmly in feast-or-famine mode since its 2016 title run. The Tar Heels have a semifinal trip in 2021 and just one other tournament trip (2017) in that span, though they’re well-positioned to land a berth this season.

As for a true newcomer? Maybe this will be the year for Jacksonville, which has had some close calls in conference title games and is a combined 46-14 since the start of the 2022 season. The Dolphins haven’t broken through yet, but they may be the most likely team to make an NCAA tournament debut early next month.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 8.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Army closes the regular season with a trip to Navy (RPI: 22) and home games against Bucknell (62) and Loyola (64). The RPI might climb a spot or two with three victories, but the strength of schedule is unlikely to improve before month’s end. … Cornell’s strength of schedule problem should get rectified in the next few weeks. The Big Red face Syracuse (7), Harvard (5) and Dartmouth (18) prior to the Ivy League tournament. …

None of Ohio State’s first five opponents has an RPI better than 45th after the close of play Sunday. That’s what is dragging down the Buckeyes’ metrics. … Richmond meets High Point on Saturday, with the winner taking sole possession of first place in the Atlantic 10. …

Dating back to last year’s conference tournament, Georgetown has won its last four games against Big East opponents by a goal apiece. Another tight one might be on the horizon with Denver visiting the Hilltop on Saturday. … Towson has climbed out of its early hole to even its record entering Tuesday’s game against Loyola. The Tigers can clinch hosting rights in the CAA tournament with victories the next three Saturdays. …

Sacred Heart has won five in a row and has an open date this weekend. The Pioneers close the regular season at home against Mount St. Mary’s and Manhattan. … Arguably the game of the year in the Atlantic Sun regular season is Saturday when Jacksonville visits Utah. Both teams are 2-0 in league play. …

There are four teams with one loss in America East play, and Vermont has the best RPI of the bunch. Also in the mix: UMBC (42), Bryant (50) and Binghamton (54). … Robert Morris is two games clear of the rest of the teams eligible for the Northeast Conference title with three games to go.

AT LARGE  (15 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Princeton takes over the top seed in the projected field after Maryland’s loss to Rutgers, but the order could go either way. The top two seeds in this year’s tournament will face play-in winners. … Penn State tacked on its second top-20 victory when it dispatched Michigan on Sunday. The Nittany Lions also hold the only victory over Cornell. …

North Carolina faces three top-10 teams to close out the regular season, and could see one or two more in the ACC tournament. That strength of schedule figure is about to improve. … Harvard’s thrashing of Dartmouth only further solidifies the Crimson’s position. The closing stretch is Penn, Cornell and Brown plus the Ivy League tournament, and barring chaos elsewhere, two more victories probably is enough for Harvard to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2022. …

Notre Dame, Syracuse and Duke are all teams with some work to do — and the best opportunities will come against North Carolina. Syracuse-Duke in Durham on April 19 will also be a differentiator. … Michigan is probably on the outside at this point, but the Wolverines are a lot closer to being in the field than they were at this point the last two years. …

Saint Joseph’s, Boston U, Dartmouth and Fairfield all have elevated strength of schedule figures that their remaining schedules probably can’t fix enough to land an at-large bid. … Johns Hopkins needs a bit more than a victory over Virginia to make a serious at-large case. The Blue Jays still have opportunities at Penn State and Maryland to close the regular season. … Rutgers is much closer to the edge of the field than it was before it beat Maryland, but it still has to answer for multiple losses outside the top 20.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Princeton vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Vermont winner
(8) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) IVY/Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(4) Penn State vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Annapolis, Md.

(3) North Carolina vs. COASTAL/Towson
(6) Harvard vs. Duke

Annapolis, Md.

(7) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
(2) Maryland vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Jacksonville-NORTHEAST/Robert Morris winner

Last three included: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke
First three on the outside: Michigan, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers
Moving in: Duke, Georgetown, Towson, Vermont
Moving out: Binghamton, Hofstra, Marquette, Michigan
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)