NCAA Bracketology: Flight Factor Will Test Committee's Credibility

It is not a passing flight of fancy to believe the NCAA lacrosse committee’s job got a bit more difficult Thursday night.

It isn’t because both Michigan and Villanova sprung upsets, though having both around for the weekend means the at-large field will not be effectively set until Saturday evening at the earliest.

And it isn’t because Johns Hopkins (Big Ten) and Denver (Big East) won’t have conference tournament titles to pair with their perfect regular season runs. Both teams will hear their names called Sunday night.

It does, however, create a possible headache as the committee balances financial demands from the NCAA and the desire for bracket integrity.

The NCAA’s longtime men’s lacrosse guideline is to have no more than two visiting first-round teams fly to their competition sites. The NCAA pays for flights for teams facing trips of more than 400 miles, while those inside that radius must bus to their first-round foes.

And while the committee only seeds the top eight teams, it does try to make the field as competitively balanced as possible (the No. 8 seed facing the ninth-best team, the No. 2 seed facing the 15th-best team) when it can.

The flight issue isn’t a hard-and-fast rule. Just two years ago, Ohio State (at Cornell), Vermont (at Maryland) and Virginia (at Brown) all faced trips of more than 400 miles.

Getting back to this year, three variables have existed for weeks now. Namely:

• Somebody is going to have to fly to likely top seed Notre Dame, unless Cleveland State wins the Atlantic Sun tournament this weekend and advances from a probable play-in game assignment.
• Somebody is going to have to fly to likely first-round host Denver, unless Air Force wins the Atlantic Sun tournament and gifts the committee with an in-state bus trip up Interstate 25.
• If either Jacksonville or Utah (the two teams that tied Air Force for the Atlantic Sun regular season title) wins the league tournament, they’re going to have to fly somewhere. 

For the last month, it looked like the Atlantic Sun winner was a good bet to be ticketed to go to Denver, especially given the lack of nearby options for the league’s top three teams. And Denver seemed solidly situated as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

It wouldn’t be perfect bracket integrity, pairing roughly the 15th-best team in the field (on paper) with the fourth- or fifth-best, but the grumbling probably wouldn’t have been too loud beyond those who like to complain about everything to begin with.

But can the NCAA get away with pairing the 15th-best team in the field with the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, solely to save on the costs of an extra flight? That trade would not go over well, since at that point more than half the field would be facing tougher matchups just in the service of saving a few bucks.

So it’s Friday morning, there are still 18 games to play and nine automatic berths to award, and the committee already has a pass/fail element to its work for the weekend. Can it get permission to fly three teams for the first round (barring a Cleveland State title run in the ASU) or can’t it?

Here’s guessing, projecting — and, frankly, hoping — it will. 

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Friday, May 3.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

There are going to be some Penn State fans in some Ivy League precincts come Saturday night. The Nittany Lions beating Michigan in the Big Ten final — after thrashing Maryland 19-9 in the semifinals — will likely save a bid for someone in that league. …  Cornell is in better shape than the rest of the Ivies, but the Big Red are not a sure thing to land an at-large, especially with Michigan and Villanova lurking as bid thieves. Cornell would be wise to dispatch Penn in the Ivy semifinals. …

Georgetown might have finagled an at-large bid if Denver had won the Big East, but there just isn’t going to be room for the Hoyas if they lose to Villanova in Saturday’s final. … Army opens its Patriot League title defense Friday against Boston University. The Black Knights would face Lehigh or Navy in Sunday’s final if they win. …

Saint Joseph’s didn’t have the easiest time getting past UMass, but the Hawks nonetheless survived to improve to 11-1 against Atlantic 10 opposition since the conference began sponsoring the sport last year. A meeting with Richmond on Saturday —  a week after Saint Joseph’s squeaked past the Spiders — will sort out the one-bid league. …

Towson cruised past Drexel 18-8 in the CAA semifinals, then watched as Delaware needed late Mike Robinson heroics to stave off Fairfield in overtime. The CAA final is a rematch of the Tigers’ 11-10 victory at Delaware last week. … Utah is two victories from its second NCAA berth in as many years. It meets Cleveland State in Friday’s Atlantic Sun semifinals. …

Sacred Heart has won a school-record 10 in a row after dispatching Siena in the Metro Atlantic semifinals. The Pioneers, seeking their first NCAA berth, face tournament host Manhattan on Saturday in the league final. … Albany throttled Merrimack to get within a victory of its first NCAA berth since 2018. The Great Danes will play host to Vermont in Saturday’s America East final.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

It is not inconceivable that with the right set of results — mainly, Virginia winning at least a game or Penn State losing the Big Ten final — that the ACC will wind up with four of the top five seeds. Notre Dame will be nearly impossible to dislodge from the top spot, and the math favors Duke and Syracuse to land in the top five regardless of how their matchup on Friday goes after losses by Johns Hopkins and Denver on Thursday. …

Johns Hopkins, despite its vanishing offense against Michigan, is still in good shape for a top-four seed. It is, though, the second year in a row the Blue Jays had a quarterfinal bye in the Big Ten tournament and lost on extra rest. … Denver didn’t cost itself an NCAA berth with its loss to Villanova in the Big East semifinals, but its seeding will take a hit. Instead of landing a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, the Pioneers are likely to land in the No. 6-8 range.

Maryland can afford a little chaos after its 19-9 loss to Penn State — its most lopsided setback since 2006 — but not a lot. Teams the Terrapins will be rooting for in the coming days: Cornell, Yale and (especially) Penn State. … Yale can get a two-fer if it beats Princeton. That would give the Bulldogs a decent victory and effectively eliminate the Tigers from tournament contention. …

Penn is one of the trickle-down losers from Thursday night. The Quakers might have plausibly thread the needle and landed the final at-large with a win, a Georgetown loss in the Big East semifinals and a Denver victory in the Big East final. With that route demolished, Penn might need to win two games in three days. … Michigan is back at it, using back-to-back victories over Ohio State to cure what ails it just like it did last year. The Wolverines smothered Johns Hopkins for the final 44 minutes Thursday to earn their way back to the Big Ten final for the second year in a row. …

Princeton’s loss to Brown is going to stand out even if it gets a split this week. The Tigers probably need to win twice in the Ivy League tournament to get in. … Included for illustrative purposes, Villanova waited a little too long to start building a serious postseason resume. But the Wildcats are still in an enviable position, sitting 60 minutes from locking down an NCAA berth on their own field. There are a lot of teams that would trade spots with them in an instant right now.

PROJECTED BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal host Towson would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Maryland vs. IVY/Cornell

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Duke vs. COASTAL/Towson

Towson, Md.

(3) Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph's
(6) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) Denver vs. Yale
(2) Syracuse vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Yale
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: None
Moving out: None
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)