NCAA Bracketology: 3 ACC Teams on Edge of the Field

One of this season’s virtues is the absence of a clear-cut favorite to win the national title. The NCAA tournament is probably going to feel relatively wide open compared to recent years when Selection Sunday arrives in 19 days.

But the next two and a half weeks probably aren’t going to be overly tumultuous for sorting out who actually gets in.

Sure, there could be some wild conference tournament results, but at least six leagues, probably a seventh (the Atlantic 10) and quite possibly an eighth (the Patriot League) will be one-bid territory. As things stand now, there’s plenty of distance between the projected team just outside the field (Michigan) to the next closest team.

It means chaos agents are few and far between, and it’s worth sizing them up now since their ranks could be thinned considerably even before May arrives.

* Yale. The Bulldogs (4-5, 3-2 Ivy League) wouldn’t be eligible for an at-large berth at the moment since they’re below .500. But they’ve won three in a row, can still score in bunches, and are assured of the non-Cornell/Princeton/Harvard spot in the Ivy tournament. Yale gets Hofstra and UAlbany this week and visits Princeton to close out the regular season and might even be able to construct an at-large argument if it gets to 8-6 with a loss in the Ivy final.

* Big Ten teams at .500 or worse. Those would be Johns Hopkins (6-6, 0-4) and Rutgers (6-7, 2-2). The Blue Jays are already assured the No. 6 seed in the Big Ten tournament, and they don’t have much margin for error the rest of the way. But they have opportunities to make a case, starting with Friday’s game at Maryland.

Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights have proven to be a headache for everyone they’ve played in the Big Ten. Can they manufacture enough goals to win two or three more games? It’s a fair question, but their defense and sensible pace means they’re not likely to need a total in the teens to win very often.

* Non-Army Patriot League teams. Army is up to sixth in the RPI, and its victory over North Carolina last month looks like it will retain value right through Selection Sunday. But the Black Knights close the regular season against Bucknell (56th in the RPI) and Loyola (62nd), so there's likely to be some metric slippage just by taking the field. Still, Army would have some at-large hopes if it won the next two and lost in the Patriot tournament. That means everyone else in the event could be a source of angst for a borderline NCAA tourney team elsewhere.

* Virginia. The Cavaliers (5-7) don’t seem like a great candidate to salvage something from what’s been a lost season, especially after second-half fades against North Carolina and Notre Dame the last two weeks. But if they beat Lafayette on Saturday, end two decades of regular-season misery against Duke the following week and then pick off one or two teams in the ACC tournament? It doesn’t appear likely, but at least the opportunity is there.

The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, April 14.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (10)

Cornell’s victory over Syracuse on Saturday was enough to finally vault the Big Red into the top five of the RPI. The Big Red’s placement as a top-five seed in recent weeks was a stretch based on the far-from-complete data. It’s much more justifiable based on the numbers now. … Could Army yet get a home game in the first round? At the moment, it’s the Black Knights, Notre Dame and Ohio State for the last seeded spot. …

Speaking of Ohio State, it would make the committee’s task of limiting first-round flights immensely easier if there was a seeded team in the Midwest. Could easily envision an Ohio State-Notre Dame first-round game at either site. … Richmond gets UMass and Saint Joseph’s the next two weeks, and it’s not unthinkable the Spiders could creep into the top 10 of the RPI by winning out. And if they get there, they’ll at least be in the seeding conversation. …

Nine of the last 10 NCAA tournaments have featured a play-in game (the Ivy-less 2021 season is the exception), and all nine have included the Metro Atlantic winner. Sacred Heart might be able to escape that fate by winning out and getting the right results elsewhere. … UMBC needs a victory over NJIT and a Bryant loss to either Binghamton or UMass Lowell to earn the top seed in the America East. If Bryant wins out, it will earn conference tournament hosting rights. …

Winners of four in a row, Villanova sits alone atop the Big East. The Wildcats close the regular season at home against Marquette and at Georgetown. … Towson defeated both Loyola and Hampton (combined record: 2-25) last week and dropped from 26th to 34th in the RPI. The Tigers play host to Fairfield on Saturday. …

The top seed in the Northeast tournament will be decided next week when Robert Morris visits Le Moyne. Both teams are 5-0 and two up on third place with two games to go. … Utah took over sole possession of first place in the Atlantic Sun with its 17-14 victory over Jacksonville.

AT LARGE  (13 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Maryland and Princeton have the best overall profiles — for now, at least. It’s difficult to envision either getting sent on the road for the first round; there just aren’t that many chances left to stumble. … Penn State similarly has positioned itself to be in decent shape for a first-round NCAA home game. A victory over Rutgers on Friday would probably all but seal a seeded slot for the Nittany Lions. …

North Carolina faces Syracuse, Notre Dame and at least one ACC team over the next three weeks. The Tar Heels’ strength of schedule should shoot into the top 10 soon enough. … Saturday’s visit from Cornell is a huge opportunity for Harvard to bolster its claim for an NCAA home game. The Crimson’s position for an at-large berth is sound — but it isn’t impervious to chaos, either. …

Syracuse visits Duke and Notre Dame heads to North Carolina on Saturday. Both teams can create some separation from the edge of the field with victories. … Duke is the only team in the top 11 of the RPI without a top-10 win, and the Blue Devils’ regular-season finale at Virginia won’t provide an opportunity to fix that. That is a suboptimal differentiating factor at the moment. …

The conversation about the final spot in the field is a lot different if Michigan had won at Duke. That head-to-head result is hard to ignore, especially since the teams’ resumes are fairly comparable. … The gap from Michigan to Johns Hopkins is considerable, and the Blue Jays won’t be part of this exercise next week unless they win at Maryland. Yet if they do and follow up with victories over the No. 3 and No. 2 seeds in the Big Ten tournament, maybe there will be a path to an at-large berth. …

It's hard to see how Fairfield, Saint Joseph’s and Boston U can nudge their way to an at-large. All three, though, are perfectly viable candidates to win their respective league tournaments.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will be assigned to play-in games on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-18 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Maryland vs. AMERICA EAST/UMBC-NORTHEAST/Robert Morris winner
(8) BIG TEN/Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) North Carolina vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond
(4) IVY/Cornell vs. BIG EAST/Villanova

Annapolis, Md.

(3) Penn State vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(6) Harvard vs. Duke

Hempstead, N.Y.

(7) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(2) Princeton vs. COASTAL/Towson-ATLANTIC SUN/Utah winner

Last three included: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Duke
First three on the outside: Michigan, Johns Hopkins, Saint Joseph’s
Moving in: UMBC, Utah, Villanova
Moving out: Georgetown, Jacksonville, Vermont
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3)