Bracketology: Opportunities Running Out for Teams on the Bubble

It’s time to dust off a May maxim: If you’re hovering around the edge of the NCAA tournament field and you don’t have quality victories, you had better have the chance to earn them.

And those opportunities are already running out for teams on the wrong side of things.

Michigan and Rutgers need Big Ten quarterfinal victories on Saturday to keep their seasons alive. Any faint chance of Syracuse playing in May requires a victory at Duke to close out April.

If all three lose, plenty of bracket intrigue will be settled even before conference tournament semifinals arrive.

They’re not the only ones with plenty at stake. Princeton (at Cornell) and Villanova (at Georgetown) can bolster their at-large chances with victories this week. Both are assured places in their respective conference tournaments, but they’ll have much less room for error if they don’t pick off road victories.

The picture won’t be completely sorted out in the next few days. But it’s possible things look unusually clear heading into the final week before Selection Sunday.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Penn State (9-3) Big Ten

Cornell (10-2) Ivy

Georgetown (9-3) Big East

Utah (9-4) ASUN

Army (10-2) Patriot

Vermont (8-4) America East

Delaware (10-3) CAA

Saint Joseph's (9-4) A-10

Manhattan (10-4) MAAC

Penn State is the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament and will have an open date this weekend before facing either Michigan or Ohio State in the conference semifinals. The Nittany Lions have won four in a row since their back-to-back losses to Marquette and Maryland in March. … Cornell can clinch the top seed in the Ivy tournament with a victory over Princeton on Saturday. Winning would also further solidify the Big Red’s chances of playing host to a first-round game in the NCAA tournament. …

Georgetown ripped Loyola and rolled past St. John’s to run its winning streak to nine. The Hoyas can land a Top 20 victory with a defeat of Villanova on Friday to close out the regular season. … Utah has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic Sun tournament. The Utes wrap up league play at Queens on Saturday. …

Army was impressive in its 11-6 defeat of Navy. If the Black Knights win the Patriot League tournament — and they’re guaranteed of at least a bye into the semifinals — they will be a handful for just about any seeded opponent in the NCAA tournament. … Vermont’s wild RPI journey the last two weeks: From 25th to 15th after beating Bryant, then down to 23rd after hammering winless UMass Lowell 21-3. The Catamounts clinched hosting rights to the America East tournament with their latest victory. …

Delaware secured home-field advantage for the CAA tournament with a week to spare in the regular season, downing Drexel 18-13. The Blue Hens visit Towson on Saturday with an unblemished league record at stake. … Saint Joseph’s remains unbeaten in the Atlantic 10 after edging UMass to clinch the top seed in next week’s conference tournament. …

Manhattan beat Wagner hours after Mount St. Mary’s lost to Siena, earning the Jaspers the No. 1 seed and hosting duties for the Metro Atlantic tournament. All six teams in the MAAC tournament have an RPI between 42nd and 61st; whoever wins the event will almost certainly be ticketed to this year’s NCAA play-in game.

AT-LARGE (16 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (11-2) ACC

Notre Dame (9-1) ACC

Virginia (9-3) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-4) Big Ten

Maryland (8-4) Big Ten

Yale (7-4) Ivy

Penn (6-5) Ivy

Denver (8-4) Big East

Villanova (10-3) Big East

Rutgers (8-5) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-6) ACC

Princeton (6-5) Ivy

Bryant (9-3) America East

Boston U (9-3) Patriot

Michigan (6-6) Big Ten

Syracuse (8-6) ACC

Duke is going to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed if it wins out against Syracuse and Merrimack. … Notre Dame’s strength of schedule will get a boost the next two weekends. The number averages the RPI of a team’s 10 best opponents, and the Irish will trade out Marquette (35) and Cleveland State (53) for Virginia (3) and North Carolina (14). Simply subbing Virginia for Cleveland State right now would bump Notre Dame’s strength of schedule to No. 6. …

Would the committee seed Virginia below Notre Dame if the Cavaliers sweep the Irish? The Cavaliers’ chances of landing a top-two seed ride on knocking off Notre Dame for a second time. … Johns Hopkins is going to land a first-round NCAA tournament game. A loss to either Maryland or Rutgers in the Big Ten semifinals won’t do nearly enough damage to knock the Blue Jays out of the top eight. …

Speaking of first-round home games, Maryland could be playing for one when it welcomes Rutgers to College Park for a Big Ten quarterfinal. A loss opens the door for the Terrapins’ profile to get passed by either Penn or Yale (though probably not both) and the eventual Big East champion. … One of the best things going for Yale (besides its excellent metrics) is it doesn’t have a questionable loss. And if it beats Harvard on Saturday, it won’t have such a blemish on its resume come Selection Sunday. …

If Penn beats Albany on Wednesday, it is assured of a winning record on Selection Sunday and avoids a loss to the No. 34 team in the RPI. If the Quakers stumble, they’ll need to win their Ivy semifinal just to be eligible for the NCAA tournament. … Denver keeps doing what it’s supposed to do, winning four in a row and locking up a spot in the Big East tournament. Two more victories — at Marquette and then a Big East semifinal — might be enough to get the Pioneers an at-large berth. …

Which means more? Denver’s superior schedule strength and head-to-head win, or Villanova’s victories over Penn State and Penn? They might get a chance to settle it on the field next week in the Big East tournament. For now, a huge opportunity awaits the Wildcats on Friday at Georgetown. … Rutgers needs something to hang its hat on, because victories over Michigan, Princeton and Utah just aren’t going to be enough. The Scarlet Knights aren’t getting in without at least a victory at Maryland on Saturday. …

It’s a similar story for North Carolina, which has lost three in a row and gets two weeks to get ready for a rematch with Notre Dame. The Tar Heels’ victory over Johns Hopkins just isn’t going to be enough to get the job done. … Princeton might have at-large hopes if it beats Cornell. Might. A loss in Ithaca will mean the Tigers need to win the Ivy League tournament. …

Bryant’s most notable victory according to the RPI came against Albany (34th), though it does face Brown (31st) on Tuesday. Neither of those is going to anchor a profile that earns an at-large berth. … Boston University’s lone Top 20 victory came against Bryant, and this year’s Patriot League isn’t much help on that front. The Terriers need to win an automatic bid again. …

Michigan is back on the board after evening its record with a rout of Ohio State. The Wolverines’ ultra-faint at-large hopes will require a run to the Big Ten final — which means victories over Ohio State and Penn State. … Syracuse faces daunting at-large chances even with a victory at Duke to close out the regular season. The Orange’s hopes probably ended with Saturday’s 19-12 loss at Virginia.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal hosts Albany and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Albany, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) Penn vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Albany, N.Y.

(5) Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(4) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(3) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(6) Maryland vs. Yale

Annapolis, Md.

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. Denver
(2) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware

Last three included: Penn, Yale, Denver
First three on the outside: Villanova, North Carolina, Rutgers
Moving in: Denver, Manhattan
Moving out: Mount St. Mary’s, North Carolina
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (3), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2)