Bracketology: Ohio State, Penn Have Very Little Wiggle Room

The pressure of May has come a bit early for a couple of teams in the top 20 of the RPI.

The NCAA requires teams to finish at .500 or better to be eligible for an at-large selection to the men’s lacrosse tournament. That’s why Penn (4-5 and No. 13 in the RPI) and Ohio State (5-6 and No. 15 in the RPI) aren’t included in this week’s bracketing exercise.

The Quakers own victories over two of this week’s projected NCAA tournament teams (Georgetown and Saint Joseph’s), plus another firmly in the mix (Yale). They also own the No. 3 strength of schedule.

Ohio State ranks first in strength of schedule and has knocked off North Carolina and Rutgers, two potentially valuable victories for the Buckeyes if they wind up getting compared to those teams for the last spot or two in the field. But they must get to .500 to do that.

With only games at Johns Hopkins and Michigan remaining in the regular season, Ohio State either needs to sweep those games or split them and make it to the Big Ten tournament final to even be eligible to get back to the postseason. There, of course, is another more appealing option for the Buckeyes: Win the conference tournament and let others worry about at-large berths.

Penn has a little more wiggle room heading into its final three regular-season games. The Quakers can lose to one of Harvard, Dartmouth and Albany and still finish at .500, though a stumble against either of the remaining Ivy League opponents would imperil their hopes of reaching the conference tournament and access to the chance to pick up another quality victory or two.

In short, both Ohio State and Penn have a little less wiggle room than either would probably like at this point. But neither team is anything close to done as a contender to reach the NCAA tournament entering the season’s final four weeks.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Johns Hopkins (9-4) Big Ten

Cornell (7-2) Ivy

Georgetown (6-3) Big East

Utah (6-4) ASUN

Army (9-1) Patriot

Bryant (8-2) America East

Delaware (8-3) CAA

Saint Joseph's (7-4) A-10

Manhattan (8-3) MAAC

Johns Hopkins is no worse off — at least for bracketing purposes — after its overtime loss to Penn State. The Blue Jays actually moved up a spot in the RPI since last week. … Cornell is one of three Ivy League teams with one conference loss, joining Harvard and Princeton. The Big Red have the best RPI of the bunch, which is why they’re listed as the automatic qualifier in this exercise. …

Georgetown has won six in a row, the second-longest winning streak in Division I behind Army’s nine in a row. … Utah probably isn’t going to jump much higher this month, even if it runs the table in the Atlantic Sun. The Utes’ four remaining regular-season foes are a combined 12-27. …

More fun with both the RPI and small sample sizes: Army beat 1-7 Colgate and fell from 12th in the NCAA’s sorting tool to 19th. It’s another reminder that who you play means a great deal. … First place in the America East will be at stake when Bryant visits Vermont on Saturday. The winner gets the inside track to conference tournament hosting rights as well. …

All eight of Delaware’s victories have come by at least six goals. The Blue Hens face the toughest portion of CAA play the next two weeks when they visit Stony Brook and then play host to Drexel. … Saint Joseph’s sits alone atop the Atlantic 10 after two league games. The Hawks get Hobart and UMass at home the next two Saturdays. …

Manhattan has a path to the NCAA tournament that won’t require leaving the five boroughs of New York City. The Jaspers can clinch home-field advantage in the Metro Atlantic tournament by winning home games against LIU and Siena and a trip to Wagner on Staten Island to close out the regular season.

AT-LARGE (17 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Notre Dame (8-1) ACC

Duke (10-2) ACC

Virginia (8-2) ACC

Maryland (7-3) Big Ten

Penn State (7-3) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-4) ACC

Denver (5-4) Big East

Yale (5-4) Ivy

Rutgers (8-3) Big Ten

Michigan (5-5) Big Ten

Villanova (8-3) Big East

UMass (6-4) A-10

Loyola (6-4) Patriot

Lehigh (7-3) Patriot

Harvard (5-4) Ivy

Jacksonville (9-2) ASUN

Syracuse (7-5) ACC

Notre Dame takes over the top spot in the RPI and the projected bracket with its victory over Duke. … On the subject of the Blue Devils, their profile is plenty similar to Virginia’s. Duke gets the edge for now based on a head-to-head victory over the Cavaliers — a trump card that might not exist if Virginia can win in Durham on Saturday. …

Two things that work in Maryland’s favor: Victories over Virginia and Penn State last month. Both are teams that defeated Johns Hopkins, which is a spot better in the RPI and has a superior strength of schedule compared to the Terrapins. … Penn State isn’t quite assured of sailing into the field as an at-large if it needs to, but the Nittany Lions are getting closer. The victory over Johns Hopkins is an immense asset. …

North Carolina has only three games left: Saturday’s neutral-site game against Syracuse and a home-and-home with Notre Dame. The Tar Heels’ numbers look good for now, but they’re probably not going to hold up if they lose out, even if the early victory at Johns Hopkins retains its current value. A victory over Syracuse would help; beating Notre Dame even once would help more. …

Denver’s numbers look good — for now. The Pioneers face Towson (RPI 50), St. John’s (59), Providence (39) and Marquette (35) to close out the regular season. That won’t help the strength of schedule, and it won’t add high-end wins to Denver’s profile. … A pair of victories last week got Yale on the right side of .500 and onto the board. The Bulldogs host Brown on Saturday. …

Now would be a good time for Rutgers to earn its first victory over Maryland since the Big Ten began sponsoring lacrosse. A top-10 victory is the one thing missing from the Scarlet Knights’ profile. … Michigan almost earned a second consecutive road victory, falling in overtime at Rutgers on Friday. Instead, the Wolverines are back to .500 with two regular-season games left. …

Villanova’s at-large hopes took a major hit with a loss at Denver. The Wildcats have one more opportunity for a high-end victory (April 28 at Georgetown) prior to the Big East tournament. … UMass and Lehigh are included for the sake of thoroughness, but it’s hard to imagine a path to an at-large berth for either at this stage. …

Loyola dropped from 13th in the RPI to 20th. The Greyhounds still have early victories over Maryland and Johns Hopkins, but their margin for error for an at-large has eroded considerably. … The 10-8 victory over Cornell gets Harvard on the board, but the Crimson have a lot of work left. It will also be rooting for Boston U and Dartmouth to finish strong and perhaps play their way off the notable losses list. …

Another “who you play matters” observation: Jacksonville beat Queens 25-5 in its only game last week and fell from 19th to 24th in the RPI. … Even with a victory at Princeton, Syracuse doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of. It finishes with a neutral-site game against North Carolina and trips to Virginia and Duke. The Orange needs to win at least one and probably two of those games to maintain any sort of at-large hopes.

PROJECTED BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so no more than two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal hosts Albany and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reached the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Albany, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. North Carolina

Albany, N.Y.

(5) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant
(4) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army

Annapolis, Md.

(3) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Penn State vs. Denver

Annapolis, Md.

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. Rutgers
(2) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware

Last three included: North Carolina, Denver, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Yale, Loyola, Michigan
Moving in: Denver, Rutgers, Saint Joseph’s
Moving out: Loyola, UMass, Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)