Bracketology: How Many 'What Ifs' Are There in the Men's Field?

Even with a full week of conference tournaments still to come, there aren’t a lot of “what ifs” remaining to sort out the NCAA tournament’s at-large field.

Six conferences — the America East, Atlantic Sun, Atlantic 10, Colonial, Metro Atlantic and Patriot — are on track to send only their champions to the 17-team postseason. That could mean some riveting and exciting games in the coming days, but it won’t impact who gets the eight at-large berths.

Only three tournaments feature potential bid thieves, teams that would squeeze an at-large possibility from the field. And only one team left in each of those leagues isn’t either in the field now or extremely close to the edge.

Big Ten: Three of the four semifinalists — Penn State, Johns Hopkins and Maryland — are in fine shape to not only earn at-large berths if needed, but to play at home in the first round of the NCAA tournament. That leaves Michigan (7-6), which likely needs to win the Big Ten tournament in Baltimore to secure its first NCAA bid. The Wolverines meet Penn State in Thursday’s semifinals.

Big East: Regular-season champion Georgetown would be an interesting at-large case, but it can do a favor to the rest of the field by dispatching fourth-seeded Providence (6-8) in Thursday’s semifinals in Milwaukee. The second game — Denver against Villanova — could serve as a de facto NCAA play-in contest. At minimum, one of those two will emerge with both a better at-large case and a chance to win an automatic bid.

Ivy: With Cornell solidly in and both Penn and Yale in decent shape entering the final week, Princeton is the only wild card for bid-snatching purposes for this weekend’s tournament in New York. The Tigers probably need to win the Ivy tournament to make a second NCAA trip in a row.

There is one other variable to keep in mind on the weekend. North Carolina’s at-large case would be much stronger with a victory over Notre Dame on Saturday. But if the Tar Heels lose their regular-season finale, their postseason hopes will be dashed.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Penn State (9-3) Big Ten

Cornell (11-2) Ivy

Georgetown (10-3) Big East

Boston U (10-3) Patriot

Vermont (9-4) America East

Utah (10-4) ASUN

Saint Joseph's (10-4) A-10

Delaware (10-4) CAA

Manhattan (10-4) MAAC

No change for Penn State, which enjoyed a well-earned open date during the Big Ten’s quarterfinal weekend. The Nittany Lions lead the country in top-10 wins (four). … Cornell wrapped up the Ivy League regular-season title with an overtime defeat of Princeton. One of this week’s questions is whether the Big Red can leap over one of the top three Big Ten teams for a No. 6 seed (or even a No. 5). …

Georgetown enters the Big East tournament on a 10-game winning streak, and it has won 20 in a row against conference competition. The Hoyas probably aren’t an at-large lock just yet, but avoiding a loss to Providence on Thursday would go a long way to solving that problem. Or, they could just win their fifth consecutive Big East tournament. … Boston U enters the projected field after claiming the Patriot League’s top seed. …

Vermont has won 19 in a row against America East foes — its last two regular-season games and the two league tournament contests in 2021, eight total in 2022 and seven this season. The Catamounts play host to the conference tourney for the second year in a row. … Utah won’t open play in the Atlantic Sun tournament until Friday. The Utes get the winner of Tuesday’s Bellarmine-Mercer quarterfinal. …

Saint Joseph’s gets an immediate rematch with High Point in Thursday’s Atlantic 10 semifinals in Richmond. The Hawks wrapped up a perfect run through the league’s regular season with a 17-11 victory over the Panthers on Saturday. … Delaware’s loss to Towson to close the regular season dramatically increases the chances the CAA ultimately winds up playing host to the NCAA play-in game. Delaware (RPI 32), Drexel (36), Towson (43) and Stony Brook (45) make up the CAA tournament field. …

The Metro Atlantic will almost certainly yield a play-in participant. Manhattan (RPI 41), Marist (46), Mount St. Mary’s (50) and Siena (56) remain in that league tournament.

AT-LARGE (15 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (12-2) ACC

Virginia (11-3) ACC

Notre Dame (9-2) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-4) Big Ten

Maryland (9-4) Big Ten

Yale (8-4) Ivy

Penn (7-5) Ivy

Denver (9-4) Big East

Villanova (10-4) Big East

North Carolina (7-6) ACC

Rutgers (8-6) Big Ten

Princeton (6-6) Ivy

Army (10-3) Patriot

Syracuse (8-7) ACC

Michigan (7-6) Big Ten

Duke owns the top RPI and a sweep of the No. 2 team. The Blue Devils could be playing for a No. 1 seed when they face Merrimack on Sunday. … Virginia is in the clubhouse for the regular season, and its three top-five victories (two over Notre Dame and one over Johns Hopkins) give it a fine case for a top-two seed. …

A consequence of Notre Dame’s loss to Virginia is that it could be easier for the NCAA lacrosse committee to limit flights in the first round. A play-in winner would have to fly to South Bend; that’s not necessarily true of a trip to Duke or Virginia. Don’t be stunned if the Atlantic Sun winner winds up in South Bend; the top three seeds in that league (Utah, Air Force and Jacksonville) would all have to fly somewhere if they made the tournament. …

No change for Johns Hopkins, which earned a bye into the Big Ten semifinals and enters the week with a realistic ceiling of a No. 3 seed and a floor of a No. 6 seed. … Maryland’s victory over Rutgers in the Big Ten quarterfinals effectively locks up a first-round NCAA home game for the Terrapins. …

Yale becomes an intriguing candidate to land a top-eight seed if it beats Cornell in the Ivy semifinals. At the very least, the Bulldogs should feel comfortable about their postseason chances with one victory this week in New York. … Penn’s head-to-head defeats of Georgetown and Yale continue to provide a solid case for the Quakers to land the No. 8 seed. The committee’s final regular-season top-10 (revealed Saturday afternoon) doesn’t seem to agree at the moment. That accounts for the change in the bracket below, but the Quakers can help themselves out in the Ivy tournament this week. …

If Denver beats Villanova in Thursday’s Big East semifinals, it will have a pair of victories over the Wildcats and wind up with a superior RPI and strength of schedule. And if Villanova wins, it will have a split and the benefit of better high-end victories (Penn State and Penn) and probably end up ahead in the RPI and strength of schedule as well. Thursday won’t guarantee either team an NCAA berth, but it looks like it will eliminate one of them. …

Not to sound like a broken record, but North Carolina isn’t getting in solely on the strength of its Feb. 14 victory at Johns Hopkins. The Tar Heels are playing to extend their season when they welcome Notre Dame to Chapel Hill on Saturday. … Rutgers had its chances, but dropped five of its last six after a 7-1 start. Four of those losses came against teams in the top six of the RPI. …

First things first for Princeton: The Tigers need to beat Penn in the Ivy semifinals just to be eligible for the postseason. … Army was going to have to win the Patriot League tournament even before its loss to Boston U. Now, the numbers are perfectly clear on the matter. …

Syracuse ended up with some useful victories (North Carolina, Princeton and Vermont) and made progress, but the Orange’s season is over after losing at Duke on Saturday. … A victory over Penn State alone probably isn’t going to be enough to vault Michigan from the fringes of the tournament conversation into an at-large berth.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal hosts Albany and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Yale

Albany, N.Y.

(5) Johns Hopkins vs. Denver
(4) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Maryland vs. Penn

Annapolis, Md.

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Boston University
(2) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s

Last three included: Yale, Penn, Denver
First three on the outside: Villanova, North Carolina, Rutgers
Moving in: Boston U
Moving out: Army
Conference call: ACC (3), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2)