Bracketology: The Final Men's Bracket Projection

The NCAA lacrosse committee will unveil its 17-team bracket Sunday night, after another four early afternoon games produce three more automatic qualifiers and the final touches on the possible No. 1 seed’s profile.

Not many questions are left. But there are a few worth touching on before getting to the last full-field rundown.

What is the most incredible scenario in play?

Has Princeton ended Bill Tierney’s career with its Ivy League tournament win earlier this afternoon? Tierney built the Tigers into a juggernaut, winning six national titles in a 10-year span. He headed west to Denver for a second chapter as a Division I head coach and led the Pioneers to the 2015 national title.

He’s retiring at the end of the season, whenever that is. It’s hard to see room for Denver — which did not impress in a 14-5 loss to Georgetown in the Big East title game Saturday — after the Princeton win. If Yale had knocked off the Tigers, there might have been an at-large spot for someone to claim. Denver and Penn easily have the best arguments to be that someone.

What else is at stake on Sunday?

The Patriot League and Atlantic Sun are both one-bid leagues, but any both champions — Army and Utah, respectively — could cause problems as a first-round opponent.

Who is the No. 1 seed?

It will be an ACC team.

Count on that being a question committee chair Brandon Macneill (Denver’s deputy athletic director) faces whether Duke, Notre Dame or Virginia winds up in the top slot. The guess here remains Duke, assuming it defeats Merrimack on Sunday.

Will there be a curveball during the selection show?

Not to the extent of last year, when long tournament appearance streaks owned by Duke and Notre Dame ended abruptly and the Ivy League sent a six-pack of teams into the postseason.

There could be some bickering over the top seed, but it’s clear who the top three are. The last of the seeded teams could provoke some scrutiny. But here’s guessing the biggest conversation revolves around the last spot in the field. The Princeton victory is likely to prevent either Denver or Penn from slipping back into the field on the final day of the season.

On to the full rundown through Sunday’s games. All data courtesy of Lacrosse Reference.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Georgetown (12-3) Big East

Michigan (9-6) Big Ten

Princeton (8-6) Ivy

Utah (12-4) ASUN

Army (12-3) Patriot League

Bryant (12-4) America East

Richmond (11-4) Atlantic 10

Delaware (12-4) CAA

Marist (10-7) MAAC

It’s going to be difficult to deny Georgetown a home game after it tore through the weekend for its fifth consecutive Big East tournament title. The Hoyas have won 12 in a row and have clinched their 16th all-time NCAA tournament berth. Plausible first-round opponents on the Hilltop: Cornell, Penn, Yale (if it loses in the Ivy final) and Michigan. …

Speaking of Michigan, the Wolverines are off to the NCAA tournament for the first time after drubbing Maryland 14-5 in the Big Ten final. Michigan was under .500 a little more than two weeks ago and now looks like it will be headed to Georgetown or an Ivy League site for the first round. … Princeton will make its second consecutive NCAA tournament appearance after torching Yale 19-10 in the Ivy final. The Tigers could end up visiting Georgetown or a Big Ten school in the first round; a trip to Penn State makes a lot of sense. …

Utah defeated Air Force 11-9 in the Atlantic Sun final to earn its first NCAA berth. The Utes are going to have to fly somewhere, and somebody is going to have to fly to Notre Dame. It’s a pairing that makes sense. … Army earned its first Patriot League title since 2019 with its 10-8 defeat of Loyola. The Black Knights could be sent a lot of places for the first round, and Maryland would make particular sense. …

Bryant is back in the tournament after a one-year hiatus. The Bulldogs, making their sixth NCAA trip, are within a 400-mile drive of Johns Hopkins but not Maryland (at least according to Google Maps). That might be a convenient matchup for the committee. … Richmond is back in the tournament for the second year in a row and fifth time ever. If the committee really cares about avoiding regular-season rematches, it could send the Spiders to Penn State. But for the sake of convenience and bracket integrity, a trip west on Interstate 64 to Virginia would be an easy pairing. …

Looks like Delaware will host a play-in game for the second year in a row. The Blue Hens will make their eighth all-time NCAA tournament appearance after dispatching Stony Brook in the CAA final. … Marist earned the MAAC’s automatic berth and will be part of Wednesday’s play-in game. The Red Foxes are making their fourth NCAA trip and first since 2019.

AT-LARGE (13 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (13-2) ACC

Notre Dame (10-2) ACC

Virginia (11-3) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-5) Big Ten

Maryland (10-5) Big Ten

Penn State (9-4) Big Ten

Cornell (11-3) Ivy League

Yale (9-5) Ivy League

Denver (10-5) Big Ten

Penn (7-6) Ivy League

Rutgers (8-6) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-7) ACC

Villanova (10-5) Big East

The committee has a mixed recent history of funneling the No. 1 overall seed to the quarterfinal site nearest to its campus. Maryland went to Delaware (2017) and Navy (2018) rather than Hofstra, but Penn State was sent to East Hartford rather than Hofstra in 2019. Last year, Maryland was shipped to Columbus instead of Hofstra. Which is to say Duke might land a No. 1 seed and go to Albany, anyway. …

Notre Dame closed out the regular season by thumping North Carolina for the second time in three weekends. The Irish are on their way to a top-three seed. … Virginia fell a spot in the RPI to third during its open date, but the gap between it and Notre Dame is not significant. It certainly isn’t enough to disqualify the Cavaliers from being seeded ahead of a team it swept during the regular season. …

The likely seeding range for Johns Hopkins: between No. 4 and No. 6. … The same goes for Maryland despite its poor showing in the Big Ten title game. It’s tempting to think about a Blue Jays-Terrapins Round III in a quarterfinal in Annapolis, but if Maryland plays like it did against Michigan on Saturday, it won’t make it out of the first round. …

Penn State moved up two spots in the RPI on Sunday without playing, passing Yale (which lost) and nosing just ahead of Cornell. The Nittany Lions have head-to-head wins over both of those teams and are probably looking at the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. … Cornell might have cycled its way back into a home game thanks to Yale’s loss to Princeton. The Big Red have a winning record against the top 20, unlike the other contenders for the last two at-large spots. …

It was a rough Sunday for Yale with its 19-10 loss to Princeton, but one of the best things it has going for it didn’t change. The Bulldogs have no losses to teams outside the top 13. Denver and Penn have setbacks outside the top 20. That’s a big difference. … Denver owns exactly one victory over the NCAA tournament field (Utah). That’s going to help the Pioneers about as much as the weekend bid-snatching done by Michigan and Princeton. …

There simply isn’t room for Penn after the surprises in the Big Ten and Ivy League. But the Quakers had their chances; if they had beaten Princeton on Friday, they would probably be on their way to another postseason appearance. … 

Rutgers must rue not winning one of its combined four games against Hopkins, Maryland and Penn State. It could have been a five-team Big Ten contingent, especially with the Scarlet Knights’ defeat of Michigan growing in value. …

North Carolina lost its last four and didn’t win a game after March 25. That speaks to both the Tar Heels’ struggles and the challenges the ACC has in scheduling with an odd number of teams. … Villanova dropped four of its last seven, including a pair to Denver by a combined 13 goals. That was enough to sink the Wildcats’ at-large hopes.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering:

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

• This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely unflexible rule.

• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Albany, N.Y.

(1) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/Marist
(8) Cornell vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Annapolis, Md.

(7) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Yale
(2) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Last three included: Penn State, Cornell, Yale
First three on the outside: Penn, Denver, Rutgers
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Denver
Conference call: Big Ten (4), Atlantic Coast (3), Ivy (3)