Bracketology: ACC, Big Ten Are This Season's Ivy League

The prevailing lesson from the 2022 college lacrosse season is that non-conference play resonates all the way to Selection Sunday.

It shouldn’t be a surprise given the value opponents’ winning percentage (50 percent) and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (25 percent) have in the RPI formula the NCAA lacrosse committee uses to help select and seed the field. And it’s not as if the formula has changed since last year.

When the Ivy League went 39-9 in regular season non-conference games, it enhanced the value of those teams beating up each other and helped six of those seven teams reach the NCAA tournament. This year, the Ivy’s prospects are dimmer largely because of a 23-15 non-conference record to this point.

So, who will benefit from strong non-conference showings this April? The usual usual suspects. The ACC’s five teams are a combined 31-6 outside of the league, while the Big Ten’s six-team contingent is 32-15.

And there was a fair bit of cross-pollination between the two, with ACC teams winning seven of the 11 games against Big Ten foes. Put another way, ACC and Big Ten teams are a combined 52-10 against the other eight Division I conferences.

Four ACC teams are perched in the top seven of the RPI. The entire Big Ten is inside the top 15. In those leagues, nearly every game the rest of the way will be a chance for a useful victory without the risk of a disqualifying loss. It’s still nearly five weeks until the NCAA tournament bracket is unveiled, but it’s already clear teams in those two leagues are in good shape to claim a significant majority of the eight at-large berths.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Cornell (7-1) Ivy

Johns Hopkins (9-3) Big Ten

Georgetown (5-3) Big East

Army (8-1) Patriot League

UMass (6-3) A-10

Utah (5-4) ASUN

Bryant (7-2) America East

Delaware (7-3) CAA

Manhattan (7-3) MAAC

Cornell can keep on winning — and it very well might! — but it is probably going to need some help to climb up to a No. 1 or even a No. 2 seed. Cornell is the only team in the top seven of the current RPI to not play any games against the rest of that group. Virginia gets seven, Notre Dame six, North Carolina five, Duke four and Maryland and Johns Hopkins three apiece, plus the possibility of a fourth in the Big Ten tournament. …

Johns Hopkins has won five in a row for the first time since 2018 and sits alone atop the Big Ten standings. There is still work to do, but the Blue Jays are well-situated to earn their first NCAA tournament berth in four years. … Georgetown is also on a five-game winning streak and is a credible at-large contender. Not bad for a team that stumbled to an 0-3 start. …

Army is the last team undefeated in Patriot League play, and the conference tournament is the Black Knights’ likely path to the postseason. But don’t forget about an April 15 game against Cornell in West Point. A victory there would enhance Army’s profile considerably. … The inaugural Atlantic 10 campaign looks like it will produce just one NCAA bid. The league’s six teams are a combined 1-14 against the top 20 in the RPI, with UMass’ February 11 defeat of Army accounting for the lone victory. …

Utah sits atop the Atlantic Sun after its defeat of Jacksonville on Friday night. Those teams, along with Air Force, have to be considered the favorites to claim the ASun’s automatic bid next month. … America East newcomer Bryant is settling nicely into its new home. The Bulldogs have won their first three conference games by a combined margin of 53-25. …

Delaware is the only Colonial Athletic Association team in the top 40 of the RPI (Drexel and Stony Brook are 41st and 45th, respectively). It isn’t unthinkable that a Blue Hens team on a long winning streak would have to host a play-in game again this season. … Defending Metro Atlantic champion Manhattan shares the league lead with Mount St. Mary’s just past the midpoint of conference play.

AT-LARGE (17 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (10-1) ACC

Notre Dame (7-1) ACC

Virginia (7-2) ACC

Maryland (6-3) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-3) ACC

Penn (4-4) Ivy

Penn State (6-3) Big Ten

Rutgers (7-3) Big Ten

Loyola (6-3) Patriot League

Ohio State (5-5) Big Ten

Michigan (5-4) Big Ten

Denver (4-4) Big East

Villanova (8-2) Big East

Lehigh (6-3) Patriot League

Jacksonville (8-2) ASUN

Princeton (4-4) Ivy

Syracuse (6-5) ACC

Duke has the most top 10 and top 20 victories on the board. With Notre Dame and Virginia up next, it can add to both totals over the next two Saturdays. … Each of Notre Dame’s remaining games is against a team in the top seven of the RPI. The Irish’s strength of schedule is in no danger of getting worse. …

Home losses to Maryland and Duke haven’t significantly damaged Virginia’s resume. The Cavaliers visit North Carolina on Friday. … Maryland remains in solid shape for an at-large bid if it needs it, but that doesn’t mean the Terrapins can just ride their March victories over Virginia and Penn State into the tournament. Maryland can’t be done building its profile. …

North Carolina probably wouldn’t have guessed a midweek victory at Johns Hopkins on February 14 would be so valuable. But at the moment, it’s arguably the difference between being at home for a first-round game and not even being in the tournament. The Tar Heels would be wise to knock off either Virginia or Notre Dame to solidify their standing. … Death, taxes and Penn owning an elite strength of schedule. …

Penn State owns one of the most striking profiles to this point. The Nittany Lions’ neutral-site defeat against Marquette is the worst loss among any at-large contender, but the only team with more top 10 or top 20 victories is Duke. … Rutgers owns victories over Loyola and UMass, but it has some work to do over the next four or five weekends to get back to the NCAA tournament for the third year in a row. …

Loyola did some heavy lifting early, beating Maryland and Johns Hopkins to open the season. Those victories are going to be the Greyhounds’ argument for an at-large berth should they need it — and are precisely why coach Charley Toomey schedules the way he does. … Ohio State has a useful victory over North Carolina, but it is also 0-4 away from home and has lost those games by an average of 9.25 goals. The Buckeyes are going to need to do something outside of Columbus to get back to the postseason. …

Michigan is on the board thanks to its first-ever victory over Maryland, but it is on the fringe of at-large conversations for now. … Denver isn’t quite done as an at-large contender, but falling to Villanova on Saturday would probably mean the Pioneers would have to win the Big East tournament to get an NCAA invite. …

Villanova picked off Penn and Penn State in non-conference play, but it is also suffering from Navy and Hofstra enduring unexpectedly rough seasons. The Wildcats might have a strength of schedule problem all the way to the end. … With only one top 20 game (Loyola) left in the regular season, Lehigh’s path to the tournament without winning a Patriot League title is narrow — maybe even nonexistent. …

Jacksonville has a victory over Duke and not much else. Also, the Dolphins’ RPI and strength of schedule numbers are about to take a hit with Queens (75th of 75 teams in the RPI), Detroit (72nd) and Lindenwood (65th) up next. … Is there a way Princeton gets in as an at-large? There isn’t much margin for error, and the Tigers would definitely have to beat Cornell later this month for that to be plausible. Otherwise, they’ll need the Ivy’s automatic bid. … Syracuse is included for the sake of thoroughness. The Orange do have the benefit of opportunities, closing with Princeton, North Carolina, Virginia and Duke.

PROJECTED BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so no more than two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal hosts Albany and Navy would be funneled into their home sites if either reached the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/Manhattan
(8) North Carolina vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown

Albany, N.Y.

(5) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) IVY/Cornell vs. ATLANTIC 10/Massachusetts

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. Penn

Annapolis, Md.

(7) Penn State vs. Loyola
(2) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Last three included: North Carolina, Penn, Loyola
First three on the outside: Ohio State, Rutgers, Villanova
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (3), Ivy (2), Patriot (2)