Beyond the Basics: Analytics to Define Every Division I Men's Top 20 Team
1. NOTRE DAME
21.3% opponent-adjusted shooting percentage
The Notre Dame defense was a brick wall in 2024, as the program hoisted its second straight NCAA championship trophy. The Irish defense held opponents to an opponent-adjusted shooting percentage of 21.3%, the best in the nation. Their ability to force low-quality shots and rely on solid goalkeeping made them a nightmare for any offense to face. Whether they can maintain that level of dominance without Liam Entenmann and Chris Conlin is the million-dollar question in 2025.
2. SYRACUSE
64.3% faceoff win rate
Syracuse's possession game saw significant improvement with a 64.3% opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate, catapulting them to third nationally. Mason Kohn's dominant performance saw him finish among the top FOGOs in the faceoff Elo ratings. The Orange flipped the script from last season's struggles, and it made a big difference in controlling the tempo and flow of their games. But after Kohn's graduation, who will take his place?
3. PRINCETON
91% offensive production returning
Princeton's got a lot to look forward to with 91% of its offensive firepower coming back for the 2025 season. With Coulter Mackesy and Nate Kabiri still in the mix, the Tigers are set to keep the scoreboard busy. They did lose Tommy Barnds, but if a new face can step into his role with a more efficient season, this offense might just hit a new gear.
4. CORNELL
95th percentile individual efficiency
Ryan Goldstein's 2024 was sensational; his individual efficiency rating finished in the 95th percentile. He finished with the sixth-highest usage rate on the team, and he was truly a dual-threat, recording a 94th-percentile assist rate and a 92nd-percentile shooting efficiency. And it's not like he's going to have to take on much larger role either with of the top six offensive players back for Cornell.
5. VIRGINIA
56th percentile individual efficiency
McCabe Millon had a freshman campaign that included plenty of highlights, but his individual efficiency was in the 56th percentile, driven largely by an assist-to-turnover ratio that finished the year at just .60 (25 assists and 42 TOs). Ball security will be the stat to watch for him in 2025. And don't get me wrong; a 56th-percentile rating for a freshman playing against the defenses they faced is nothing to scoff at. But if he can take a step forward this year, it will really help the Cavaliers fill some offensive gaps.
6. MARYLAND
31.9% offensive efficiency
The Terrapins' offense didn't quite hit the mark last season, with a 31.9% efficiency that saw them slide to 28th nationally. One of the issues was that they didn't give themselves many chances, finishing 37th with 1.03 shots/possession. The silver lining was they actually shot the ball much better, finishing 10th in overall shooting efficiency (up from 26th in 2023). If they can finish like they did last year and avoid as many empty possessions, look for a much more effective Maryland offense.
7. DUKE
30% offensive production returning
Duke heads into 2025 returning just 30% of its offensive production. Brennan O'Neill was responsible for 24% of Duke's production all by himself, and with Josh Zawada and Dyson Williams gone as well, Duke is replacing its three highest-usage players. Incoming transfers Pearse Glavin and Luke Grayum are ones to watch, along with Andrew McAdorey, as the Danowskis look to turn the page on the O'Neill era.
8. YALE
40th percentile shots allowed per game
Yale's defense had its fair share of struggles in 2024, and the biggest concern was shots they allowed per possession. Yale finished in the 40th percentile (1.05 shots allowed/possession), which means the Bulldogs gave up too many scoring opportunities. Of the top teams in Division I, none had a larger split between their offense and defense. Yale finished with the No. 5 opponent-adjusted offense and the No. 53 opponent-adjusted defense.
9. JOHNS HOPKINS
25.5% turnover rate
The Johns Hopkins offense was sharp in 2024, and ball security was a big part of the story. The Jays improved their turnover rate to 25.5%, ranking No. 7 nationally (up from 16th in 2023). They shot the ball just as well as the year before, so this was not a case of a less aggressive offense. The end result was a six-spot jump up the LaxElo rankings.
10. DENVER
25% shooting percentage
A 25% shooting was the magic mark for Denver in 2024. The Pioneers played 15 games against conference foes and teams with similar rankings. In the games in which they shot 25% or better, they finished with a 10-1 record and a 35% offensive efficiency. They only won once in four chances when they failed to hit this mark.
11. TOWSON
+6.1 possession margin
Towson made a splash in 2024 with a solid possession game, boasting a plus-6.1 per-game possession advantage. The Tigers' impressive ride rate (they produced a failed clear on 11.5% of opponent attempts) pushed them up to No. 3 nationally (from 11th in 2023). This improvement from the previous year's plus-4.3 possession edge was a significant factor in their overall climb from 18th in the LaxElo rankings to 14th by season's end.
12. PENN
No. 1 strength of schedule
Penn's 2025 schedule is currently projected to be the toughest in the country. The Quakers are marrying the Ivy League gauntlet with games against Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Villanova and Saint Joseph's. Last year's fifth-toughest schedule looks like a veritable cake walk compared to what they've laid out for themselves. This is your classic, "get to .500 and let RPI do the rest" type of schedule.
13. PENN STATE
No. 8 strength of schedule
Penn State's 2025 schedule is No. 8 in overall difficulty, giving the Nittany Lions a chance to sharpen their edge heading into what they hope will be a long postseason run. With 10 familiar opponents and a couple newer challenges, like Princeton, this slate has a lot to be excited about. Simulations show an average of 7.6 wins, so fans should probably not be surprised by a few losses. That's the price you pay for having so many top matchups.
14. GEORGETOWN
4 games in 19 days
Georgetown faces a grueling stretch from Feb 15 to March 5 with four games in just 19 days, including matchups against Penn, Notre Dame, Brown and UAlbany. This period will test their depth and determine what sort of tournament profile the Hoyas bring to Selection Sunday. LaxElo projects a 3-1 record over those four games, so one loss in that stretch should be your baseline expectation.
15. ARMY
5-plus midfield goals
In 2024, when Army midfielders managed five or more goals, the Black Knights were unstoppable, going 9-0. This midfield scoring surge was like a secret sauce for Army's success, fueling the offense to a 35% efficiency rate. When these guys were on, it was game over for the opposition.
16. MICHIGAN
82nd percentile shot-on-goal rate
Michigan's defense was the master of keeping shots off target, landing the Wolverines in the 82nd percentile for opponent-adjusted shot-on-goal rate at 58.8%. This knack for disrupting opponents' shooting rhythm was a key factor in their defensive playbook. When they kept foes uncomfortable, it translated into success on the field — as shown by their best stretch of games when they allowed 22% overall defensive efficiency.
17. NORTH CAROLINA
74th percentile individual efficiency
Owen Duffy shined in 2024 with a 74th-percentile individual efficiency mark. His ability to dish out assists at a 77th-percentile rate set him apart, hinting at a bright future. If he can boost his shooting efficiency, he might just be the key to lifting the team's offensive game. The good news is that when we look at players who had a similar debut season, improved shooting has been a hallmark of their subsequent careers.
18. HARVARD
93rd percentile turnover rate
Harvard's defense was a turnover machine, ranking in the 93rd percentile nationally. They forced opponents into a turnover on a whopping 36.9% of their offensive possessions. Their shooting percentage allowed saw a larger year-over-year improvement (they finished 65th in 2023 and 29th last season), but that ability to create chaos in the opposing offense was such a huge part of their identity.
19. OHIO STATE
1 or more goals
Ben Mayer wasn't one of the top options for Ohio State, but in one sense, he was the most important player on the team. In the Buckeyes' nine games against conference peers and similarly ranked teams, the Buckeyes boasted a 5-1 record and a solid 30% scoring efficiency when Mayer scored and an 0-3 record with a 27% efficiency when he didn't score. There was no other player whose fortunes were so closely intertwined with the team's outcomes.
20. LEHIGH
No. 3 non-conference strength of schedule
Patriot League teams don't get a lot of wiggle room in the non-conference with all those league games. And Lehigh is not wasting any of those slots with a schedule that projects to have the third-toughest non-conference slate in the country. They play Rutgers, Fairfield, Cornell, Richmond, Villanova and Princeton — a big jump from last year's schedule. It's notoriously tough to build an at-large-worthy resume coming out of the Patriot League, but if Lehigh can somehow get 5-6 wins out of its non-conference, it's possible.
