The top of our S-Curve, which determines the order the 29 teams will be placed into, is pretty well sorted out already. North Carolina, Boston College, Northwestern and Syracuse occupy the top four spots, in that order, with easy sorting. UNC beat the following three teams, BC’s only loss is to the Tar Heels and Northwestern beat the Orange.
Where the questions come into place are the next four seeds. Two teams seem to be locks for these as of now — Stony Brook and Maryland. One could make a case that the Terps should be ahead of the Seawolves, but a superior RPI and SOS are keeping SBU ahead for now.
The Nos. 7 and 8 seeds are where many discussions take place, and this year’s RPI has one of the top candidates pretty low — Loyola. The Greyhounds check in at No. 14 in this week’s RPI despite just one loss and top 10 wins over Princeton and Florida. A weak SOS of 27 has Loyola as No. 9 in our S-Curve this week. Nevertheless, should one of the teams ahead of Loyola falter — like Rutgers did the past two weeks — we could see Loyola get back into that discussion.
This week we have Denver (RPI No. 6, SOS No. 23) in the No. 7 slot and James Madison (RPI No. 9, SOS No. 7) holding in the No. 8 seed for the second straight week. The Pioneers grabbed a crucial overtime win over Big East rival UConn this week and improved its record against top 40 teams to 6-1.
Rutgers crashed out of the seed lines after back-to-back losses, while Princeton and Florida are very much in the discussion for seeding, too. The Tigers (SOS No. 18) own an impressive RPI of 7 but lack a win over a team in the RPI Top 15, while Florida (RPI No. 10, SOS No. 20) has that sparkling win over Syracuse in the swamp, but little else of major significance.
Ultimately, the group of six teams vying for those bottom two seeds will be fun theater. And that group could grow to seven should Duke find its way past Boston College or North Carolina.
Notes: Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (41st or higher) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 11), not human polls. Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included. First place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the events of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T1-20 |
T21-40 |
Last 6 |
40+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
North Carolina (ACC) |
1 |
5 |
6-0 |
4-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Northwestern (Big Ten) |
4 |
3 |
5-2 |
3-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Denver (Big East) |
6 |
23 |
2-1 |
4-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Princeton (Ivy) |
7 |
18 |
2-2 |
3-0 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Florida (AAC) |
10 |
20 |
1-4 |
1-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Loyola (Patriot) |
14 |
27 |
4-1 |
2-0 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Jacksonville (ASUN) |
15 |
42 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Stanford (Pac-12) |
22 |
11 |
0-2 |
4-4 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
UMass (A-10) |
24 |
57 |
0-2 |
2-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Towson (CAA) |
40 |
25 |
0-4 |
1-2 |
3-3 |
Mount St. Mary's (50) |
|
Albany (America East) |
41 |
38 |
0-2 |
1-2 |
4-2 |
Drexel (53) |
|
Mercer (Big South) |
47 |
90 |
0-2 |
0-1 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Niagara (MAAC) |
48 |
73 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
3-3 |
Iona (77), Old Dominion (98) |
|
Bryant (NEC) |
62 |
110 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
5-1 |
New Hampshire (75) |
|
Robert Morris (MAC) |
81 |
98 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
4-2 |
4 losses of 41+ |
North Carolina is marching steadily to an unblemished regular season with just Virginia and Duke remaining … Northwestern is solidly No. 3 thanks to its win over Syracuse. That win places them third in this week’s bracket … Princeton is currently the only Ivy League team in this week’s bracketology. Top wins over USC and Temple guide the Tigers within hosting duties.
Denver is once again the Big East’s representative. The nation’s top-ranked defense could run the table the rest of the way and into a seed … Florida can hang its hat on a win over Syracuse. The Gators are the favorite in the American … Loyola is running through the Patriot League without issues. Wins over Princeton and Florida have the Greyhounds thinking of hosting once again.
USC’s win over Michigan was impressive. The Trojans are up to 13th in the RPI … Jacksonville has a win over Virginia Tech in its back pocket in case it trips up in ASUN play … UMass has the superior RPI in the Atlantic 10, just one spot ahead of Richmond, which it beat on Sunday.
Niagara has early claim in the MAAC, which features three teams in the top 50 of the RPI … Drexel gets the early CAA bid with a 2-0 record, which matches JMU … Albany is the beneficiary of Stony Brook’s postseason ban, and the Great Danes might hold on to its undefeated conference record until the season finale against the Seawolves.
Mercer has had no problem shifting its winning ways from the SoCon to the Big South … Bryant is looking to take the NEC crown in its final year before bolting for the America East … Robert Morris is perfect in MAC play.
AT-LARGE (22 TEAMS/14 SLOTS)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T1-20 |
T21-40 |
Last 6 |
40+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Syracuse |
2 |
1 |
4-3 |
5-0 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Boston College |
3 |
9 |
3-1 |
7-0 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Stony Brook |
5 |
14 |
3-2 |
3-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Maryland |
8 |
21 |
4-1 |
2-0 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
James Madison |
9 |
7 |
3-3 |
4-1 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Rutgers |
11 |
15 |
3-2 |
2-1 |
3-3 |
--- |
|
UConn |
12 |
39 |
0-2 |
2-0 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Duke |
13 |
29 |
0-1 |
6-0 |
6-0 |
--- |
|
Temple |
16 |
30 |
0-3 |
3-0 |
4-2 |
Delaware (68) |
|
Ohio State |
17 |
23 |
1-3 |
2-1 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Yale |
19 |
54 |
0-1 |
2-1 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Johns Hopkins |
20 |
22 |
0-4 |
1-1 |
4-2 |
Navy (44) |
|
USC |
21 |
32 |
1-1 |
3-2 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Virginia |
25 |
4 |
0-6 |
4-1 |
3-3 |
--- |
|
Michigan |
26 |
12 |
1-4 |
3-1 |
2-4 |
--- |
|
Vanderbilt |
28 |
26 |
0-2 |
3-3 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Colorado |
29 |
34 |
1-0 |
3-3 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Richmond |
30 |
58 |
0-1 |
2-2 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Arizona State |
31 |
10 |
1-3 |
2-3 |
3-3 |
--- |
|
Virginia Tech |
32 |
6 |
1-5 |
2-1 |
2-4 |
Liberty (52) |
|
Saint Joseph's |
38 |
35 |
0-3 |
1-2 |
5-1 |
Towson (40) |
|
Pitt |
39 |
16 |
0-4 |
1-3 |
3-3 |
--- |
Syracuse came so close to cracking into the top three, but its upset bid of UNC came up just short … Boston College remains the easy choice for the No. 2 seed … Stony Brook is strolling through its final America East schedule with ease.
Maryland can build a case to jump into the top four or five teams down the stretch, which starts with road tilts at Princeton and Ohio State … James Madison is riding a six-game winning streak, which further bolsters its campaign for a top eight seed … Rutgers has dropped three of five to possibly fall out of seeded contention.
UConn’s at-large profile is weak on high quality wins, but high in RPI (12). The Huskies missed a great chance to solidify its profile against Denver … Duke got by the Hokies leading into two big games against BC and North Carolina … Temple can’t afford to look past East Carolina as a major game as Florida lays in wait.
Ohio State has won six of its last seven games with a pivotal stretch upcoming against Maryland, Hopkins and Rutgers … Yale saw its RPI jump up to 19 following four consecutive victories. The Elis have a big week upcoming by facing Cornell and UConn … Johns Hopkins is in danger of falling out of the at-large discussion altogether without a win soon.
USC’s home loss to Stanford dropped it back into at-large status … Welcome back to the field, Virginia (7-7). Unless the Cavs shock UNC, they’ll fall out again, but a Commonwealth clash with the Hokies is just nine days away … Michigan, once comfortably in the field, has dropped four straight and is the final team in the field this week. A Saturday game at Penn State is a de facto bubble buster.
Vanderbilt can make noise when it hosts Florida this week. A win would leapfrog the Commodores past several teams … Colorado boasts wins over Ohio State and Stanford to bolster its at-large profile … Richmond likely needs to win the Atlantic 10 tournament after this weekend’s loss to UMass.
Arizona State is above .500 and now in the field, albeit one of the final teams listed … Virginia Tech is left out of the field this week after a narrow loss to Duke and a pair of wins by UVA and ASU … Saint Joseph’s has a tough weekend with a home game followed by a road trip to UMass … An impressive inaugural season has Pitt on the fringes of the at-large discussion. The Panthers beat Louisville for their first ACC victory and have two nice chances to pad the resume — on the road against Penn State and Notre Dame.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia vs. Arizona State
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Harrisonburg, Va.
Jacksonville (ASUN) at (8) James Madison
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Towson (CAA)
Syracuse, N.Y.
Robert Morris (MAC) at (4) Syracuse
Rutgers vs. Niagara (MAAC)
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Bryant (NEC) at (5) Stony Brook
Princeton (IVY) vs. UMass (A-10)
Newton, Mass.
UConn vs. USC
Winner plays at (2) Boston College
Denver, Colo.
Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Denver (BIG EAST)
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Colorado
College Park, Md.
Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (6) Maryland
Duke vs. Ohio State
Evanston, Ill.
Stanford vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Last Four In: Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Michigan
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Richmond, Temple, Yale
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Johns Hopkins, Pitt, Saint Joseph’s
Moving In: Arizona State, Towson, Virginia
Moving Out: Drexel, Penn State, Virginia Tech
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)