The pandemic has changed everything, and with less than five weeks to go, the NCAA Selection Committee faces a unique experience. The committee will still use its objective measures, but some guesswork has to take place.
So what should we expect? Lots has changed since the 2019 tournament, including conference formations and eligibility requirements. Let’s go over what will be different about selecting this field. (Much of which can be found in the NCAA Pre-Championship Manual).
Automatic qualifiers: 15 (not including the Ivy League)
The number of teams: 29, up from 26 (after the play-in games). The top three teams will receive a bye into the second round with the other 26 teams facing off.
Eligibility: Teams do not have to be .500 or better.
Some things will remain the same, such as the site format (top eight seeds hosting 3- or 4-team pods, leading into quarterfinal weekend and eventually a championship weekend at Towson’s Johnny Unitas Stadium). Now, this could be subject to change.
Another thing that will remain the same (kind of) in guiding the committee’s work are the objective criteria the committee will use to place teams in the field, including RPI evaluation, head-to-head competition, results versus common opponents, significant wins and losses and evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on a schedule. With the lack of non-conference play, some of these will be moot. For example, evaluating the RPI of a Big Ten team against anyone else is pointless, as the Big Ten isn’t playing anyone out of conference.
This is where the guesswork will come in. Head-to-head and records against same opponents will be primary ranking systems within conferences, with RPI being used if two teams have played comparable schedules. Brackets in other sports can be a guiding force on how this may play out (see: See men’s and women’s hockey, and women’s volleyball. Both soccer tournaments will be fielded later this month and could shed some more light on how they use data in similar circumstances).
Unlike the NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament, which is expected to be held in one geographic region like basketball, soccer and volleyball, the women’s lacrosse tournament is expected to be hosted at campus sites until the semifinals.
This will certainly be a year of apples and oranges.
Notes: First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI (for this week, head-to-head or other factors were used. Official RPI is released next week). There are a total of 15 automatic qualifiers and 14 at-large teams to comprise a 29-team field. All records are through April 6.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
W-L
|
League
|
Road
|
Notable Wins
|
Notable Losses
|
North Carolina |
11-0 |
5-0 |
2-0 |
Syracuse, Boston College, Stony Brook, Duke, Florida, Louisville |
--- |
Northwestern |
9-0 |
9-0 |
4-0 |
Maryland, Maryland, Penn State, Penn State |
--- |
Stony Brook |
9-2 |
5-0 |
4-2 |
Towson |
--- |
Jacksonville |
6-0 |
1-0 |
4-0 |
Florida |
--- |
Florida |
9-2 |
6-0 |
5-2 |
Louisville |
--- |
Loyola |
7-2 |
4-0 |
3-1 |
Drexel, Navy |
--- |
Richmond |
6-1 |
2-0 |
3-0 |
--- |
--- |
Drexel |
8-1 |
1-0 |
4-1 |
Temple |
--- |
Stanford |
6-0 |
4-0 |
3-0 |
Colorado |
--- |
Denver |
6-1 |
4-0 |
0-1 |
--- |
--- |
Fairfield |
6-0 |
6-0 |
2-0 |
--- |
--- |
Robert Morris |
8-2 |
4-0 |
3-2 |
--- |
--- |
Mount St. Mary's |
7-2 |
6-0 |
4-1 |
--- |
--- |
Furman |
6-3 |
2-0 |
2-3 |
--- |
East Carolina, Davidson |
Campbell |
4-5 |
2-0 |
2-2 |
--- |
East Carolina, Davidson |
North Carolina’s walloping of Syracuse cemented the Tar Heels’ top spot … Northwestern is the best team in the Big Ten, where seemingly every other team has beaten each other … Stony Brook had two chances at big wins against UNC and Syracuse, but came up empty handed …
Jacksonville surprised Florida a few weeks back. The Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 with three one-goal victories … Florida gets the nod over Vanderbilt for now. The two tangle twice in Gainesville next weekend … Loyola already clinched the Patriot League’s South Division title with three games to play …
Richmond has just one loss on its resume, a six-goal setback to Virginia in February, and leads its division in the Atlantic 10 … Drexel has been a pleasant surprise out of the CAA and has taken out four fellow Philadelphia foes in non-conference play … Stanford and Colorado were set to duke it out again in Palo Alto, but that game has been canceled. The Cardinal took an OT thriller on March 20 …
Denver and UConn are set to square off in Storrs this weekend to determine who might grab the top spot in the Big East … Fairfield is the decisive leader in the MAAC. The game to circle is April 24 against Marist … Mount St. Mary’s is perfect in NEC play with an 11.3 goals per game scoring margin …
Furman has played just one SoCon game but has the best overall record (6-3) … If the postseason started today, Campbell would be the only one in it with a losing record. Wednesday’s contest against High Point could ultimately decide who is the Big South’s top seed in the conference tournament.