The Ivy League is back, ACC teams are beating up on each other, two programs banned from their conference auto bids are vying for seeds and several would-be at-large teams might not make the tournament due to record restrictions. This year’s NCAA bracket selection is shaping up to be almost as unique as last year’s pandemic-induced event.

Let’s get some basics out of the way — the NCAA Division I women’s tournament will be a 29-team field featuring 15 automatic bids, as the Ivy League is playing games once again, while the Southern Conference folded in the offseason. Thus, 14 at-large teams will be selected in May.

This week we focus on the bubble because several factors will make this year’s field different from most. First off, Stony Brook and James Madison will act as bid thieves because their respective conferences prohibited them from their postseason tournaments. The America East rarely receives multiple bids, while the CAA is weaker than in past years. This week’s projection has two teams from each league.

Those losses on the bubble are offset by several teams who, as of today’s post, aren’t eligible for the tournament due to sub-.500 records. Notre Dame (4-7) and Virginia (6-7) are almost done with their regular seasons and will have to make runs to become tournament eligible. They’re both top 25 teams in the RPI and any wins they capture the rest of the way are resume builders.

Another potential bubble buster is Arizona State (5-6), who just handed Rutgers (10-2) its second loss of the season last weekend. The Sun Devils have an RPI of 32, and with five regular season games remaining, they have solid opportunities for quality wins and to get above the .500 threshold. Nevertheless, the exclusion of these three allows others to slide in.

The beneficiaries are annual bubble dwellers Virginia Tech and Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the sixth team in this week’s field and are in danger of falling below .500 as well

The likelihood of six Big Ten teams making this year’s tournament is extremely low, but we must project as if the tournament started today. As such, pairings in the projected bracket became a difficult task to avoid conference matchups in the first round. As always, this should sort itself out in the coming weeks.

Notes: Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 4), not human polls. Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included. First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the events of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

North Carolina is 4-0 against the RPI top 10, having beaten the two teams directly behind them, Boston College and Northwestern. The Wildcats’ win over Syracuse places them third in this week’s bracket … Princeton is currently the only Ivy League team in this week’s bracketology. Top wins over USC and Temple guide the Tigers within hosting duties.

Denver is once again the Big East’s representative. The nation’s top-ranked defense could run the table the rest of the way and into a seed … Florida can hang its hat on a win over Syracuse. The Gators are the favorite in the American … Loyola is running through the Patriot League without issue. Wins over Princeton and Florida has the Greyhounds thinking of hosting once again.

USC’s win over Michigan was impressive this weekend. The Trojans are up to 13th in the RPI … Jacksonville has a win over Virginia Tech in its back pocket in case it trips up in ASUN play … UMass has the superior RPI in the Atlantic 10, just one spot ahead of Richmond. The two meet on Sunday.

Niagara has early claim in the MAAC, which features three teams in the top 50 of the RPI … Drexel gets the early CAA bid with a 2-0 record, which matches JMU … Albany is the beneficiary of Stony Brook’s postseason ban, and they Great Danes might hold on to its undefeated conference record until the season finale against the Seawolves.

Mercer has had no problem shifting its winning ways from the SoCon to the Big South … Bryant is looking to take the NEC crown in its final year before bolting for the America East … Robert Morris is perfect in MAC play.

AT-LARGE (20 TEAMS/14 SLOTS)

Syracuse has a lock on the No. 4 seed as of now but could upend things if it could upset UNC or … Boston College. The Eagles are the clear No. 2 as of now after falling to Carolina and beating Northwestern … Stony Brook has wins over Princeton, Florida and Johns Hopkins to enhance the Seawolves’ No. 5 RPI rank.

James Madison looked to be in bubble trouble after a 3-4 start, but five straight wins including triumphs at Virginia and Maryland have the Dukes in position to potentially host … Rutgers’ hot start has been tempered by a 10-goal loss at Maryland and a surprise loss to Arizona State this weekend. The Terrapins have bevy of resume-building games the rest of the way.

UConn boasts a nine-game winning streak and an RPI of 12, however, the Huskies lack quality wins. Saturday’s clash at Denver could cement its at-large profile … Duke is another team on a long winning streak (7). The nation’s highest scoring team lacks a signature win that could propel it into hosting consideration with BC and UNC remaining … Temple took its first step toward expunging an ugly loss to Delaware by beating Vanderbilt. The Owls have an RPI of 16 and are winless against RPI top 20 teams.

Johns Hopkins is here this week, but the Blue Jays don’t have an NCAA-worthy win despite a top 20 RPI … Ohio State has put back-to-back wins together to get into the at-large discussion … Penn State is once again on the bubble. The Nittany Lions beat JMU, but has a loss at Drexel and one-goal losses to Princeton and Ohio State.

Michigan’s profile was not a problem until a three-game skid since March 26. A crucial stretch against OSU and PSU in the next two weeks could solidify or weaken the Wolverines’ standing …

Stanford is right in the Pac-12 title chase with a good chance to lock up an at-large spot … Vanderbilt stumbled at Temple this past week in what would have been a valuable victory.

Colorado split its Bay Area series with a pivotal stretch all within the Rocky Mountain State upcoming … Army is on a 10-game winning streak entering this week’s midweek matchup against Yale, which will try to place itself as the second-best team in the Ivy.

Richmond avenged last year’s season-ending loss by thumping Saint Joseph’s by 14 ahead of an important game at UMass … Hofstra’s four-game losing streak puts its at-large chances in peril … Virginia Tech has run the gamut — beating JMU and Notre Dame couples with a loss to Liberty.

Davidson will likely look to the A-10 tournament at this point after a loss to St. Joe’s, which needs an upset of UMass to have an at-large chance, too … Cornell missed a resume-building win in a narrow loss to Jacksonville, but chances against Penn, Syracuse and Yale remain to bolster a resume … Navy needs to run the table, but included are games against Army and Loyola.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Stanford vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Harrisonburg, Va.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) James Madison
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (4) Syracuse
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Niagara (MAAC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Bryant (NEC) at (5) Stony Brook
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Penn State

Newton, Mass.

UConn vs. Colorado
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Piscataway, N.J.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (7) Rutgers
Princeton (IVY) vs. UMass (A-10)

College Park, Md.

Drexel (CAA) at (6) Maryland
Duke vs. Ohio State

Evanston, Ill.

USC (PAC-12) vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (6) Northwestern

Last Four In: Colorado, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Penn State
Last Four Out: Richmond, Temple, Vanderbilt, Army West Point

Moving In: n/a
Moving Out: n/a

Multi-bid Conferences: Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Pac-12 (3), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)