In the absence of the Ivy League’s presence and the addition of another at-large bid, the conference that may benefit the most from this unique tournament selection is the American Athletic Conference.
In 2019, the AAC was a one-bid league fronted by Florida defeating second-place Cincinnati in the league’s inaugural title game. Fast-forward two years, and two things are obvious: Florida is still the best team, and this league is likely a multi-bid conference.
Vanderbilt and Temple squared off for the No. 2 seed this past weekend and split the doubleheader weekend. Temple captured the first game to further boost its at-large chances, while Vanderbilt desperately needed the second game to prove it could beat an NCAA tournament-worthy squad, which it did.
The AAC, projected with the three aforementioned squads, joins the likes of the ACC (6), Big Ten (5) and the CAA (4) as multi-bid leagues heading into the first week of conference tournaments.
How do those projections rate compared to years past? In comparing the past five tournaments (since the Big Ten joined lacrosse in 2015), a relatively clear picture can be formulated of what typically takes place.
|
|
Bids |
Seeds |
'21 Bids |
'21 Seeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | 5.8 | 3.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Big Ten * | 4.0 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Ivy League | 2.6 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Pac-12 ^ | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| CAA | 1.8 | 0.4 | 4 | 1 |
| Big East | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 |
| America East | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Patriot League | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| American # | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
* Big Ten stats include Johns Hopkins’ appearances as an independent
^ Appearances as MPSF members included
# Only 2019 tournament included
There is clearly a vacuum this season in light of the Ivy’s absence and an additional at-large bid being granted, which approximates to nearly four bids this season. The ACC is on its usual pace, the Big Ten might be just above it (and might need a compassionate committee) and the CAA is set to double its normal output.
Changes to the Seed Lines
A pair of ACC teams, Duke (9-6) and Virginia (8-7), dropped out of our projected seeds this week, in favor of Loyola (9-2) and Stony Brook (10-2). Drexel’s hot play makes Loyola’s early season win over the Dragons more and more impressive, putting the Greyhounds in the No. 6 slot, while Stony Brook returns to No. 8 with its win over Albany. Both of their RPIs rose this week, while Virginia’s nose-dived to 18th. Duke (RPI No. 12) is the first unseeded squad.
Bubble Fluctuations
We touched on Vanderbilt’s resume-building victory over Temple, which gets the Commodores into this week’s field in the final at-large spot. Joining Vanderbilt is Hofstra (5-5), whose RPI of No. 9 includes victories over Towson and James Madison. The Pride’s spot is tenuous, as a rematch with Towson is likely a must-win to keep the at-large hopes alive. A positive in their favor is that four of their five losses are to tourney-bound teams, while the fifth came against Albany, which has a top 30 RPI profile and won’t be viewed as a significant loss.
Sliding off the bubble for the time being is Elon (8-2) and Louisville (5-10). Elon’s RPI of 22 is good, but losing the past two games to Virginia Tech (RPI No. 38) and fellow bubble team James Madison put the Phoenix in this position. Louisville went 1-8 in ACC play and lost to North Carolina in an ACC quarterfinal Wednesday.
Could 11-Loss Virginia Tech Make the Tourney?
Maybe. The Hokies (5-10) are 2-2 in their past four games, beating Elon on April 14 and surprising Virginia on Saturday 20-15. An RPI of 38 is ugly, but wins over teams who are 18th and 22nd in the RPI are better than some other bubble dwellers. A win over Syracuse in the ACC quarterfinals is likely to get the Hokies in, even if they fall short of raising the trophy.
The Curious Case of Colorado
The Buffaloes (7-5) have seemingly been on the bubble since day one because of their head-to-head results (losses to Louisville and Vanderbilt), despite a victory over Denver back in February. At No. 28 in the RPI, Thursday’s game at Denver is the final chance to impress the committee before the Pac-12 Tournament.
Where is the Tournament Being Played?
The NCAA posted a revised document to its website pertaining to the Division I Women’s Lacrosse Championship, which outlined the bid process for this year’s tournament. In sum, predetermined sites will be used for the first- and second-rounds, rather than traditional non-predetermined sites (read: seeded teams host games). According to this accompanying document, the following locations are the 12 approved sites being considered for the eight pods:
Boston College
Duke
Florida
Loyola
Maryland
North Carolina
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Southern California
Stony Brook
Syracuse
Towson
For this week, Drexel is the only seeded team not listed, therefore we have the Dragons slotted in a pod at Towson with three other teams. Moreover, we positioned Towson to be in that pod as well. (We are assuming if the school bid to host and makes the tournament, it would stay home.)
Following the bracketing principles, teams are still grouped geographically. This set of 29 teams requires five flights (previous brackets this season have required four).
The eight pod locations will be revealed on Selection Sunday. Quarterfinal sites will be decided after the opening weekend. Championship Weekend will be held at Johnny Unitas Stadium in Towson, as previously scheduled.
First Bids Doled Out This Week
At least four automatic bids are on the line as conference tournaments commence beginning Wednesday. The ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten and Big South will award their conference champions an automatic bid on Sunday. Robert Morris could also clinch the MAC this weekend pending their result against Youngstown State on Saturday and Central Michigan’s games.
Notes: First place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. There are a total of 15 automatic qualifiers and 14 at-large teams to comprise a 29-team field. Significant wins include all teams in the RPI Top 30 and projected NCAA teams, significant losses are those RPI 31 or higher. For the Big Ten and MAAC, we used significant wins as those over teams in the field and significant losses as those out of the field. All records are through April 25.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
RPI 1-20 |
RPI 21-40 |
Sig. Wins |
Sig. Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 1 | 4 | 10-0 | 3-0 | Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Stony Brook, Florida, Duke, Virginia, Virginia, James Madison, Louisville, High Point | --- |
| Drexel | 4 | 11 | 5-1 | 4-0 | Hofstra, Towson, Towson, Temple, Navy, Albany | --- |
| Stony Brook | 6 | 33 | 2-2 | 3-0 | Towson, Albany, Albany | --- |
| Loyola | 7 | 33 | 1-2 | 3-0 | Drexel, Navy, Furman | --- |
| Northwestern | 8 | 79 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Maryland, Maryland, Johns Hopkins, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, Rutgers, Penn State, Penn State | --- |
| Florida | 10 | 20 | 4-2 | 1-0 | Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt, Temple, Temple, Louisville | --- |
| Stanford | 11 | 86 | 0-0 | 4-0 | Colorado | --- |
| UMass | 13 | 39 | 0-1 | 3-1 | --- | --- |
| Jacksonville | 14 | 52 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Florida, High Point | Coastal Carolina (42) |
| Denver | 15 | 49 | 0-0 | 3-1 | --- | --- |
| Mount St. Mary's | 26 | 68 | 0-2 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
| Fairfield | 34 | 87 | 1-0 | 1-1 | --- | Siena (45) |
| Furman | 39 | 46 | 0-1 | 0-2 | --- | East Carolina (55) |
| High Point | 43 | 24 | 0-4 | 0-2 | --- | --- |
| Robert Morris | 44 | 103 | 0-1 | 0-0 | --- | --- |
North Carolina has probably locked up the No. 1 seed … Drexel’s seven-game winning streak has the Dragons inside the seed line. They now wait two weeks until the CAA semifinals … Stony Brook completed its sweep of Albany and has a solid chance to earn a seed if it wins out …
Loyola is in a similar boat to Stony Brook, where it needs to win out to maintain its place as a seed … Northwestern looks to cap an impressive undefeated run through the Big Ten at this week’s tournament … Florida remains undefeated in The AAC once again …
Stanford (9-0) hosts the Pac-12 championship having won four games by two goals or less … UMass won its Atlantic 10 division and will host the conference tournament it must win to make the NCAA tournament … Jacksonville’s shock loss to Coastal Carolina puts a dent in its at-large profile should the Dolphins lose in the ASUN tournament …
Big East leader Denver rolled through league play and can solidify its at-large profile with a win over Colorado this week, should the Pioneers need it … Mount St. Mary’s didn’t play this past week and is set to host the NEC tournament … Fairfield can lock up the MAAC’s No. 1 seed with a win over Monmouth this week or a loss by Siena …
Furman (11-4) remains perfect in Southern play and just dropped an 11-goal game at Loyola … High Point opens Big South tournament play Friday against fourth-seeded Winthrop … Undefeated in league play, Robert Morris is closing in on the MAC title.
At-Large (22 teams/14 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
RPI 1-20 |
RPI 21-40 |
Sig. Wins |
Sig. Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 2 | 2 | 7-2 | 4-0 | Boston College, Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Stony Brook, Loyola, Duke, Virginia, Albany, Louisville, Louisville | --- |
| Boston College | 3 | 3 | 7-2 | 5-0 | Syracuse, Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Hofstra, Duke, UMass, Virginia, Albany, Louisville | --- |
| Notre Dame | 5 | 6 | 3-5 | 3-0 | Hofstra, Duke, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Louisville, Robert Morris | --- |
| Duke | 12 | 8 | 1-6 | 4-0 | Virginia, Davidson, Louisville, High Point | --- |
| Virginia | 18 | 7 | 1-6 | 3-1 | Duke, James Madison, Louisville | --- |
| Temple | 19 | 18 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Vanderbilt, Towson | --- |
| Towson | 17 | 10 | 1-5 | 2-1 | Loyola, Mount St. Mary's | --- |
| Maryland | 45 | 56 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Johns Hopkins, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 45 | 56 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Rutgers, Penn State, Penn State | --- |
| James Madison | 21 | 27 | 1-3 | 1-1 | Towson, Elon, High Point | --- |
| Rutgers | 59 | 49 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Maryland, Johns Hopkins, Penn State | Michigan, Michigan |
| Hofstra | 9 | 12 | 1-4 | 3-1 | Towson, James Madison | --- |
| Penn State | 71 | 43 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Maryland, Maryland, Rutgers | Ohio State, Ohio State, Michigan |
| Vanderbilt | 16 | 15 | 1-5 | 1-0 | Temple, Colorado, High Point | --- |
| Virginia Tech | 38 | 5 | 1-8 | 1-2 | Virginia, Elon | --- |
| Elon | 22 | 71 | 0-0 | 2-2 | James Madison, Furman | Virginia Tech |
| Louisville | 29 | 1 | 0-10 | 2-0 | Colorado | --- |
| Colorado | 28 | 30 | 1-2 | 2-3 | Denver | Arizona State, USC |
| Ohio State | 70 | 44 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Penn State, Penn State | --- |
| UConn | 35 | 25 | 1-4 | 1-0 | UMass, Albany | Villanova |
| Albany | 27 | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | Hofstra | UConn |
| Richmond | 41 | 90 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Davidson | --- |
| Davidson | 23 | 44 | 0-1 | 2-0 | --- | Richmond, Coastal Carolina |
| Lehigh | 30 | 58 | 0-2 | 1-1 | Navy | Saint Joseph's |
| Navy | 25 | 60 | 0-2 | 1-1 | Mount St. Mary's | --- |
Syracuse and Boston College split their series in New York, which means the Orange remain No. 2 and Boston College at No. 3 … Notre Dame faces Duke in the ACC quarterfinals on Wednesday. A win for Notre Dame would solidify a top five seed, while Duke could get back into the seeded picture with a victory ...
Virginia’s slide continued with a 20-15 loss against Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have dropped five straight and face BC in the ACC quarterfinals … Temple was unable to complete the sweep of Vanderbilt and is now the No. 3 seed in this week’s AAC tournament. First up? Vanderbilt.
Towson has lost four straight and faces a rematch with Hofstra, against whom the Tigers lost by a goal this past Sunday. Hofstra is back in the at-large picture and looking to validate last week’s win by finishing off the season sweep on Saturday …
Maryland is the No. 2 seed in this week’s Big Ten tournament and has dropped two of its past three games … Johns Hopkins is the No. 3 seed and faces a tricky matchup against sixth-seeded Penn State. The Nittany Lions are in desperation mode as one of the final teams in the projected field … Rutgers is the No. 4 seed and would like to polish off a third-straight win over Ohio State, who is clinging on to the very edge of the bubble at this point …
James Madison has won its past four games to strengthen its profile, including Sunday’s 15-9 win over fellow bubble resident Elon. The Phoenix have dropped two straight since starting 8-0 and could use some confidence by winning Sunday’s game against William & Mary … Virginia Tech is on the bubble once again after its surprise win over Virginia. Another upset is likely needed …
Louisville will have to pull the mother of all stunners on Wednesday against UNC, and if the Cardinals do, they’re in … We covered Colorado earlier. A win over Denver is needed for at-large chances, otherwise it will rely on the Pac-12 Tournament
Connecticut has nice victories over UMass and Albany, but its loss to Villanova is a stain it can’t remove. The Big East tournament is the only viable path … Albany missed its last at-large chance in a loss to Stony Brook … Richmond took care of Davidson for its best win of the year, yet still dropped a spot in the RPI to No. 41 (likely because of Virginia’s recent tailspin, the Spiders’ only loss) ...
Davidson moved up a spot in the RPI, but now has two “significant losses” on its resume (Richmond and Coastal Carolina). A matchup with UMass in the A-10 semifinals will be an interesting one, as the two haven’t met this season … Lehigh (RPI No. 30) has a victory over Navy (RPI No. 25), but not much else. The Mids are in the same boat with decent ratings, poor strength-of-schedule and little in the way of major victories. A Patriot League title run is the path to the NCAA tournament.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams. Predetermined sites are being used to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
The top three seeded teams will receive a bye into the second round and host one first-round game between two other teams. The remaining five seeded teams will be bracketed with three unseeded teams.
-
Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
This year there are 29 slots with 15 automatic qualifiers, unless the Ivy League declares a champion before Selection Sunday, which would make it 16. As it stands now, 14 at-large teams will be selected. There are no play-in games this season.
UPPER BRACKET
Chapel Hill, N.C.
James Madison vs. Furman (SOUTHERN)
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Virginia vs. Rutgers
Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (8) Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST)
Evanston Ill.
Stanford (PAC-12) vs. Vanderbilt
Denver (BIG EAST) at (4) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Notre Dame, Ind.
Florida (AAC) vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)
Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Notre Dame
LOWER BRACKET
Syracuse, N.Y.
Maryland vs. Hofstra
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse
Towson, Md.
Towson vs. Penn State
Fairfield (MAAC) vs. (7) Drexel (CAA)
Newton, Mass.
Temple vs. Massachusetts (A-10)
Winner plays at (3) Boston College
Baltimore, Md.
Duke vs. Johns Hopkins
High Point (BIG SOUTH) vs. Loyola (PATRIOT)
Last Four In: Rutgers, Penn State, Hofstra, Vanderbilt
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Elon, Louisville, Colorado
Moving In: Hofstra, Vanderbilt
Moving Out: Elon, Louisville
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (5), CAA (4), American (3)