While two teams have clearly separated themselves as the top seeds (Boston College, Maryland) and another three are firmly in the top five (Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina). It’s the final three spots for hosting dues where things get interesting as multiple contenders reside in the Midwest, which would necessitate flights to those sites.
Let’s take a look at six teams with legitimate chances to host first and second round games, how they hash out, who should get to host and who should travel.
A reminder, all rankings used are based on Monday’s Rating Percentage Index (RPI), not human polls, and these projections are done as if the tournament started today.
LOYOLA (9-3, RPI: 11)
The Greyhounds would be the Patriot League’s automatic bid as of today due to beating Navy this past weekend. Loyola has two wins over teams in the RPI top 20 (Florida, Navy), but neither of those victories are against top 10 teams, which will be a common those being compared. Loyola’s strength-of-schedule (SOS) is 17th.
MICHIGAN (13-1, RPI: 8)
The Wolverines have been the surprise of the 2019 season, reeling off the first 13 wins of the season. Michigan has three top 20 wins (Denver, Johns Hopkins, Dartmouth), which offsets a weak schedule (32nd). Michigan is one of five teams to have six wins against the RPI top 30.
NORTHWESTERN (9-3, RPI: 10)
The Wildcats are the only team in this comparison with a win over a top 10 team, Penn, who is also being compared here. Northwestern has backed that up with victories over Hopkins and Dartmouth, too. Barring a collapse, the Wildcats will be hosting postseason games this May.
PENN (9-2, RPI: 7)
The steady Quakers are seemingly around the seed line every year. Penn has missed on two marquee victories against Maryland and Northwestern, which leaves its victory over Hopkins as the only one over a projected tournament team. Chances to strengthen the profile against Princeton and Dartmouth remain.
VIRGINIA (10-5, RPI: 3)
Virginia’s RPI is obscene at No. 3 because it’s the top-rated team in the RPI vs. top 10 opponents category. The Cavaliers play an intense non-conference schedule (9-1 overall) in addition to being in the most competitive conference in the country. So why do the Cavs slip into this realm? They’re 0-5 against the top 10, but they’re 10-0 against everyone else including wins over Loyola, Princeton, Navy and JMU.
USC (13-2, RPI: 6)
The Trojans have been resurgent in 2019. Until a loss last week to Colorado, USC’s only blemish was a close loss at No. 1 Boston College. That loss to Colorado may loom large because when compared to the other teams fighting for a bid to host, the Trojans are the only ones to have a loss to a sub-top-20 team.
Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 8), not human polls. Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included. First place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the events of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 1 | 1 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Maryland | 2 | 3 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| USC | 6 | 16 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-1 | — |
| Penn | 7 | 9 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Loyola | 11 | 17 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Denver | 12 | 29 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | Virginia Tech (31) |
| Florida | 15 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Hofstra | 18 | 25 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | — |
| Massachusetts | 25 | 49 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Harvard (32) |
| Liberty | 26 | 52 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | — |
| Fairfield | 34 | 55 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Boston U (33) |
| Wagner | 35 | 70 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — |
| Stony Brook | 37 | 50 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 1-0 | — |
| High Point | 40 | 68 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0-0 | — |
| Furman | 57 | 51 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | High Point (40), Jacksonville (42), Davidson (66) |
Boston College is the top seed because it holds the highest overall SOS and RPI ... Maryland’s profile is nearly identical to BC’s. Both teams have wins over Virginia, Syracuse and North Carolina. As of now, BC has one more top 10 win than the Terps … USC is 9-1 in the Pac-12 and can clinch a share of the league title with another Colorado loss or a win on April 20 vs. Arizona State. First up is a trip to upset-minded Stony Brook on Sunday.
Penn is in the pole position in the Ivy League. The Quakers have beaten everyone they’re supposed to and haven’t dropped any surprises … Loyola finally beat Navy at home and has control of the Patriot League … Denver has the early lead in the slimmed-down Big East after a potentially title-deciding win at Georgetown.
Florida once again has control of a league, this time it’s the American Athletic Conference. The Gators are 0-6 against top 20 competition and may need to rely on the auto bid to reach this year’s tournament … We find out this week if Hofstra can maintain its first-place hold in the CAA against the defending champion, James Madison … UMass is the lone undefeated team in the A-10 after Richmond’s early-season slip at George Mason. Sunday’s game against the Richmond could determine the top seed … Liberty could gain a two-game lead in the Atlantic Sun with a win at Jacksonville on Sunday.
Fairfield is 4-0 with a pair of one-goal wins in MAAC play. This conference could yield another exciting title race … Wagner and Mount St. Mary’s have early 2-0 starts in NEC play, with the Seahawks gaining the edge on superior RPI … Stony Brook leads the America East with Albany, and unlike past seasons, the Seawolves’ path to the tournament is through their conference … High Point has an interesting profile – 40th in the RPI and a win over No. 13 Johns Hopkins. The Panthers should rely on the Big South auto bid and not chance things in the at-large pool … The SoCon winner will surely be in one of the two play-in games once again. As of now, that’s Furman.
At-Large Bids (17 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 3 | 2 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 4 | 8 | 3-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | — |
| North Carolina | 5 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 0-0 | — |
| Michigan | 8 | 32 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 9 | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 10 | 13 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 13 | 11 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | High Point (40) |
| Princeton | 14 | 23 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | Brown (48) |
| Navy | 16 | 35 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Dartmouth | 17 | 20 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Stanford | 19 | 27 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — |
| James Madison | 20 | 48 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Colorado | 21 | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Stony Brook (37) |
| Georgetown | 23 | 19 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 0-0 | — |
| Duke | 24 | 31 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Villanova | 27 | 24 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Saint Joseph's (45) |
| Richmond | 30 | 81 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | George Mason (44) |
| Virginia Tech | 31 | 26 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 0-2 | — |
Virginia needed to score the final four goals at Penn State to avoid a third-straight loss. The Cavs are feasting on its strength-of-schedule numbers despite going 0-5 against the top 10 … Syracuse will have no bubble trouble this year. The Orange have five wins over top 20 teams including three in the top 10 ... North Carolina has a chance to jump into the top three if it beats Syracuse on Saturday.
Michigan will be dancing for the first time this May, whether the Wolverines can secure a hosting bid will be the question down the stretch … Notre Dame has solidified itself in the top five on the strength of wins over North Carolina and Virginia … Northwestern has a tremendously high ceiling with games against Maryland, Michigan and Notre Dame in the next 10 days and could catapult up the seed line.
Johns Hopkins has three top 30 wins this season, but a sub-30 loss to High Point (Note: last night’s loss to Stony Brook was not included. This will likely put the Blue Jays on the bubble in next week’s projection) … Princeton is just above the bubble fray, but any more slip-ups like one experienced against Brown could be pratfall for the Tigers. A Wednesday win over Loyola would help solidify an at-large bid … Navy’s victory over Florida is the shine to the Mids’ resume. Wednesday at Georgetown might be a must win to avoid relying on an automatic bid …Dartmouth’s win over Hofstra is the linchpin to its at-large candidacy. The Big Green are at Penn on Saturday.
Stanford is our second team out of the field because the Cardinal don’t have a win over an RPI top 30 team … James Madison has no bad losses and wins over Penn State and Virginia Tech. The Dukes will be the favorites to win the CAA if they get by Hofstra this week … Colorado’s wins over USC and Stanford have the Buffaloes firmly in. The lone “bad” blemish is to Stony Brook … Georgetown is missing notable wins, but has opportunities against Navy (Wednesday) and Maryland (April 17).
Duke is the first team out because it has just one resume-building win, Virginia Tech … Villanova is on the periphery of the bubble discussion because of its No. 27 RPI rankings … Richmond has wins over Liberty and Villanova, but a bad loss at George Mason (RPI No. 44) has the Spiders as the third team out … There seems to be an ACC team with an RPI over 30 that makes a case for the NCAA tournament. This year it’s Virginia Tech. The Hokies’ win over Denver will likely get them in.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-in Games
Furman (SOUTHERN) at Liberty (ATLANTIC SUN)
Fairfield (MAAC) at Wagner (NORTHEAST)
Newton, Mass.
Dartmouth vs. Stony Brook
Winner plays at (1) Boston College (ACC)
Ann Arbor, Mich.
Fairfield (MAAC)/Wagner (NEC) at (8) Michigan
USC vs. Hofstra
Notre Dame, Ind.
Colorado vs. Florida (AMERICAN)
Winner plays at (4) Notre Dame
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. High Point (BIG SOUTH)
Winner plays at (5) North Carolina
College Park, Md.
Princeton vs. Navy
Winner plays at (2) Maryland
Charlottesville, Va.
Furman (SOUTHERN)/Liberty (A-SUN) at (7) Virginia
Penn (IVY) vs. Virginia Tech
Syracuse, N.Y.
Johns Hopkins vs. Massachusetts (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner play at (3) Syracuse
Evanston, Ill.
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. James Madison
Winner plays at (6) Northwestern
Last Four In: Navy, Virginia Tech, Dartmouth, James Madison
Last Four Out: Duke, Stanford, Richmond, Georgetown
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (3), CAA (2), Pac-12 (2), Patriot (2)