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Stony Brook. Stony Brook. Stony Brook.

It’s becoming a theme, everyone.

For a second straight year, the Seawolves feel maligned by the operation of the NCAA Selection Committee. Stony Brook is the No. 5 seed despite being a unanimous No. 1 in all human polls because objective analysis of the selection criteria dictates it so. Even committee chair Janna Blais agrees.

“[The Seawolves] are truly an outstanding team,” Blais said. “I expect them to go very far in the tournament. We couldn’t get them higher when we looked at the criteria.”

Stony Brook was always destined to be seeded below its human poll ranking because of the team’s conference schedule, non-conference schedule and the parameters in which the committee are given. Stony Brook’s RPI was just sixth, low for a 19-0 team, and its strength of schedule was in the mid-30s, nearly 20 spots worse than everyone else being considered for a top four team.

To the point on schedule:

What all the top four seeds — Maryland, North Carolina, James Madison and Boston College — have in common is that they played at least two games against each other and had victories in those matchups.

“The committee feels very comfortable that [Stony Brook] landed in the fifth spot,” Blais explained.  “We had head-to-head matchups in the top four. We did not have that in Stony Brook. They did not play any of those top four seeded teams and that [made it] very difficult to compare them. And then when you look at those four teams, you had more significant wins than Stony Brook did.”

Consider Stony Brook’s seeding a by-product of a system that doesn’t allow for any eye tests or flexibility in its analysis.

“That’s a really difficult piece of our process — we can’t take into consideration the eye test,” Blais continued. “It’s not part of the criteria. We don’t look at when a win occurred in the season. We don’t take into consideration injuries at a particular game or when they lost to or another team. We end up splitting hairs over significant wins and what is considered a significant loss.”

The main takeaway is this: Play the best.

North Carolina has three losses and is the No. 2 seed because it not only gets to play (and beat) the best in the ACC, they also do the same in non-conference play. The Tar Heels beat Maryland and lost to James Madison and Florida in non-conference play. They weren’t docked by losing.

Waiting Until the End

Typically, a selection committee has seeds, a bracket and a few contingencies to play with entering the final day of the season. When all the games end, it’s all about minor adjustments and making sure the prior work was correct.

This year’s slate of conference championship games on Sunday flipped the script.

Blais noted how results in the Patriot League and CAA affected seeding and re-ordering of the teams on the S-Curve. Namely, JMU’s win over Towson required an entire re-examination of their previous No. 4 seed and helped bump them into the No. 3 seed over Boston College.

“We could not seed the top eight teams until all the games were over this year,” said Blais. “That’s really never happened before this year. It shows the extensive parity in our sport at this time and how exciting it is to be part of women’s lacrosse.”

Had JMU lost, Boston College would have been the No. 3 seed. Because of the Dukes' win, Blais said they took five additional looks at the comparison between the two teams and were surprised by the overall body of work. Knowing the full work that goes into the decision, Blais gave a sense of relief from the process.

“I was worried going into [Sunday] that we hadn’t finalized the top eight seeds, and where it ended I am thrilled. Our committee feels great that those eight teams absolutely deserve it and it’s easy to defend every decision.”

For a greater explanation from Blais on the entire committee’s decisions, celebrated reporter Andy Katz did an interview with the committee chair that was released moments after the bracket announcement.

The Favorite

Maryland has to be the favorite. Ever since the early one-goal loss to North Carolina, the Terrapins have steamrolled their opposition. The Terps’ path to the semifinals is relatively mild compared to some other seeded teams in the field — and it should be because they’re the No. 1 seed. Maryland seemingly has the most talent across the field and it would be great for the sport to see a Maryland-Stony Brook semifinal in front of a packed house at LaValle Stadium.

Last Teams In

According to Blais, the final two teams in the field were Johns Hopkins and Penn State. Judging by the placement in the field and their head-to-head result, the Blue Jays were the final team in the field. Hopkins avoided a bad win, which propelled them into the field, while Penn State’s win over Northwestern Friday night was the catalyst for its entry.

First Team Out

Southern California didn’t hear its name called Sunday night for a number of reasons. The Trojans’ RPI dropped ominously after its loss to Stanford in the Pac-12 semifinals. Moreover, USC was haunted by its significant loss to Oregon. While other teams around them also had poor losses, USC didn’t have enough to back it up in terms of important wins.

Toughest Draw

Without a doubt, it’s Loyola’s pod. Yes, the ‘Hounds will get an easy first-round game, but whoever awaits them in round two already has a blueprint on how to beat them. Johns Hopkins won by three and Navy just crushed Loyola in the Patriot League final.

Upset Alert, Part I

With so much parity across the country, this could be the year of the upset. Prime seeded candidates to fall before quarterfinal weekend are No. 7 Towson and No. 8 Loyola. The Greyhounds, assuming they get by Fairfield, will face a local rival (Johns Hopkins) or a conference rival (Navy), both of whom have beaten them this year. Towson’s road is also difficult as a possible second-round matchup with a talented Northwestern squad or a surging Richmond team in the wings.

Revenge Fuel

If the fifth-seeded Stony Brook can get to the semifinal weekend, it’s nothing but home games for the Seawolves. They’ve been living off the one-goal loss to Maryland in last year’s quarterfinals and a rematch on May 25 could be the game of the year.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Boston College gets to the semifinals. The Eagles might be one of the most overlooked one-loss teams the tournament’s had. While all the attention has been put on Stony Brook and it’s perceived “underseeding,” Boston College will be in line to host the Seawolves for a quarterfinal matchup. This is significant as BC is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, which includes a six-goal win over No. 2 UNC, a six-goal win over Navy, as well as victories over Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The Seawolves haven’t played a team as talented as Boston College all season (except maybe themselves in practice).

Players to Watch

Kylie Ohlmiller, Stony Brook

The senior out of Islip, N.Y., has been terrorizing opposing defenses all year. Ohlmiller has 145 points this season on 81 goals and 64 assists. Included in that are five games with at least 10 points.

Sam Apuzzo, Boston College

The ACC Player of the Year, Apuzzo has notched 112 points this season (79 goals, 33 assists). Beyond scoring, Apuzzo has been a force on the draw (127 for the year), as evidenced by scooping a program-record 17 in the ACC quarterfinals against Syracuse.

Marie McCool, North Carolina

North Carolina’s do-everything player, Marie McCool is a three-time All-ACC First Team honoree and a two-time ACC Midfielder of the Year. McCool has 67 points (53 goals, 14 assists) and leads the surging Tar Heels in ground balls (34), caused turnovers (20) and draw controls (131).

You’ll Hear a Lot About…

Everything: North Carolina and James Madison being overseeded, Boston College and Stony Brook being underseeded. The top half of the bracket is stacked and whoever emerges will be the national contender.

Predictions

Maryland should roll into the semifinals to await Stony Brook in the top half. North Carolina eases into the semifinals, too, avoiding last year’s upset trend. James Madison fends off Florida at home to return to the national semifinals for the first time in 18 years.

In the semifinals, the Seawolves edge Maryland to set up a final showdown with North Carolina. The battle tested Tar Heels ride their momentum to their third national title.

Grading the Committee

B+

The committee’s job is thankless. When was the last time you heard someone say they did well? (Answer: Last year, we did).

The committee absolutely got the top two seeds correct with Maryland and North Carolina. After that, it’s a blurry picture.

It was always going to be hard to slot Stony Brook because of its lack of comparable schedule with the other teams and its conference schedule is so poor. Nevertheless, the Seawolves did nothing wrong. This probably speaks more to the procedure than this committee, but it seems like the criteria might need some tweaking to allow for the Stony Brooks of the world to exist and succeed. (For example, introduce a winning percentage component for the significant win criteria.)

Other quibbles include putting Navy in Loyola’s pod. With Towson down the road, why are the Mids going to Loyola for a potential third matchup of the season, which would be the second in a three-game span? It would have been minor to flip the Navy-Johns Hopkins matchup with the Northwestern-Richmond matchup to set up some variety in the second round.

Bracketology Breakdown

For the second straight season, we correctly predicted the 13 at-large bids. While we fell short of getting all eight seeded teams (we had Northwestern instead of Towson), we had four of the exact numbers correct: No. 1 Maryland, No. 2 North Carolina, No. 4 Boston College and No. 6 Florida. We had also been warning folks that Stony Brook was going to be seeded lower than expected, and this turned out to be true.