T-25. PENN
2018 record: 7-8 (3-3 Ivy)
Last seen: Obliterated by Yale in the Ivy League semifinals, completing a shaky finish that also included a loss to Saint Joseph’s and an overtime escape against Ivy doormat Dartmouth.
Senior starts lost: 51 of 150 (34.0 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 71 of 218 points (32.6 percent)
Initial forecast: It’s total guesswork with the Quakers, maybe more than any other team. After all, how does a team that beats Duke and demolishes Navy and Princeton end up taking four losses by at least six goals? Penn can trot out some impressive knowns that go beyond its clever nonconference scheduling philosophy, which invariably keeps it in the postseason picture even with a record hovering around .500. The Quakers will bring back three of their four 20-goal scorers, including Simon Mathias (28 goals, 20 assists), Adam Goldner (28 goals) and Tyler Dunn (25 goals), but no one else on the roster cracked the 10-goal plateau. A little more balance might help, but the defense might be a greater source of concern given how 2018 unfolded. Penn let just two of its first eight opponents get to 10 goals; five of its final seven did so (and both Cornell and Yale dropped 20 on the Quakers). Penn will invariably knock off one of the many brand-name opponents it faces prior to Ivy play, and that earns it a nod for this exercise, but there’s work to do at both ends to make them a serious contender in the Ancient Eight.
T-25. MARQUETTE
2018 record: 6-8 (3-2 Big East)
Last seen: Having its two-year run as Big East tournament champions halted with a conference semifinal loss to Denver.
Senior starts lost: 14 of 140 (10 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 7 of 166 points (4.6 percent)
Initial forecast: The good news is the Golden Eagles lose virtually none of their offense, with their top seven point-getters in 2018 eligible to return. The bad news is Marquette didn’t have much offense to lose, ranking 65th out of 69 teams in scoring offense (7.86 goals per game). It wasn’t a huge surprise for a team that lost more than 60 percent of its scoring from 2017, but it is an issue in need of resolution. Despite those problems, Joe Amplo’s bunch still beat Georgetown and Ohio State and gave Notre Dame a strong run in a midweek game in April. In addition to trying to summon some offense, Marquette heads into 2019 with vacancies at goalie (though Inside Lacrosse reported last month Bellarmine’s Johnny Hulsman is headed for Milwaukee) and the faceoff dot (Zachary Melillo). However, the rest of the anchors on a stout defense return, and there’s every reason to believe the Golden Eagles will be a fairly stingy bunch as long as they don’t end up with a severe possession deficit. Marquette’s identity is clear enough; it played in five games in which neither team reached 10 goals in regulation in both 2017 and 2018. Expect more of the same, with an offense led by John Wagner (30 goals, nine assists) almost certain to improve at least a bit.