The 2017 college lacrosse season concluded just a week ago. While it may seem too soon to look ahead to next year, it's still a fun exercise. Over the next five days, US Lacrosse Magazine will make an early attempt to size up a Division I top 25 for 2018.
No. 10 NORTH CAROLINA
2017 record: 8-8 (1-3 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Getting steamrolled in the first half on a rainy night at Albany, only to surge back and make things interesting before falling in the most entertaining game of this year’s NCAA tournament.
Senior starts lost: 64 of 160 (40 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 77 of 277 points (27.8 percent)
Initial forecast: Can the Tar Heels put it together at both ends of the field at the same time? With a couple noteworthy exceptions (at Denver in early March, for the first half of a victory at Virginia and against Notre Dame in a do-or-die ACC title game), it didn’t happen much this season and it’s the key lever in getting Carolina back into contention for a deep tournament run. If there was a welcome takeaway from 2017, it’s that Joe Breschi has accumulated a lot of capable young midfielders, and if they can collectively take a modest step forward, the offense will be in fine shape with both Chris Cloutier and Andy Matthews also returning. The Tar Heels probably didn’t handle the target of being the defending champs as well as they could have, but that problem’s gone now. They should be a threat to win a game in the postseason next spring.
No. 9 HOFSTRA
2017 record: 11-3 (3-2 Colonial)
Last seen: Falling to Massachusetts in the Colonial semifinals on a shot from near midfield as time expired.
Senior starts lost: 28 of 140 (20 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 69 of 251 points (27.5 percent)
Initial forecast: Hofstra was 11-1 entering the final weekend of conference play. It lost at Towson in boring fashion and then Massachusetts in excruciating fashion and that was that. Hofstra got let down by fades from North Carolina and Princeton, but its schedule strength made landing an at-large bid nearly impossible. The Pride could use a jolt with its schedule, and it also needs to replace third team All-America attackman Josh Byrne (41 goals, 25 assists). There isn’t much else departing at the offensive end, and Ryan Tierney is a quality building block after scoring 31 goals as a freshman. Towson gets wiped out by graduation and the rest of the Colonial looks like it might be at least a year away from a serious run at a 12-2 sort of regular season. The Pride won’t be the heaviest conference favorite next year (that honor goes to Albany), but they should be the class of the CAA thanks to a capable offense and a defense led by second team All-America goalie Jack Concannon.
No. 8 RUTGERS
2017 record: 10-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last seen: As one of the final teams left out of the field on Selection Sunday for the second consecutive year; the last on-field impression was a victory over Ohio. State at the end of April.
Senior starts lost: 43 of 140 (30.7 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 71 of 259 points (27.4 percent)
Initial forecast: If there’s a program a neutral observer can empathize with over the last two years, it’s Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights were on the precipice of ending a postseason drought of more than a decade in both seasons, only for lousy nonconference scheduling (2016) and some early May surprises (2017) to get in the way. Still, this year’s Scarlet Knights just about maxed out, especially after losing attackman Adam Charalambides in the preseason. He’ll be back next year, as will Kieran Mullins (36 goals, 16 assists) and Jules Heningburg (20 goals, 26 assists), and that will make Rutgers a bear to deal with in the Big Ten. Everything sets up for a successful run at a postseason bid, even in a conference with four other credible NCAA tournament contenders. Rutgers still has to prove it can beat decent teams away from home with consistency. Clear that hurdle, and Brian Brecht will finally have a postseason trip to back up his fine work on the banks of the Raritan.
NO. 7 OHIO STATE
2017 record: 16-5 (3-2 Big Ten)
Last seen: Unable to secure possession in the final three quarters of a 9-6 Memorial Day loss to conference rival Maryland.
Senior starts lost: 101 of 210 (48.1 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 171 of 355 points (48.2 percent)
Initial forecast: Two things stand out about Ohio State at first glance. One, that’s a lot of production walking out the door, from specialists (goalie Tom Carey and faceoff man Jake Withers) to attackman Eric Fannell. Two, it’s hard to ignore the Buckeyes’ seemingly annual elevator ride; they made the NCAA quarterfinals in 2013 and 2015 and this year got to the national title game, but went 6-8 in 2014 and 7-8 in 2016. Here’s guessing Ohio State avoids the even-year curse next spring thanks to the depth coach Nick Myers has stockpiled in his growing program. One place the Buckeyes will need it is in the midfield, where four of the six regulars from their interchangeable top two lines were seniors. Ohio State, the second-most complete team in Division I in 2017, will be hard-pressed to duplicate its impressive run next season. But the Buckeyes have as good a foundation as they ever have, and they figure to be every bit as hungry after playing on the final day of the season for the first time.
NO. 6 SYRACUSE
2017 record: 13-3 (4-0 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Done in by early penalties and an inability to solve Towson’s tenacious defensive midfield in the program’s third quarterfinal loss in as many years.
Senior starts lost: 80 of 160 (50 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 158 of 325 points (48.6 percent)
Initial forecast: Syracuse is the first team since 2008-10 Maryland to lose in the quarterfinals for three consecutive years, and only two programs (2002-07 Georgetown and 1986-89 Navy) have four quarterfinal exits in a row to their name. There’s a solid chance the Orange will be just good enough to join that company next spring. Syracuse remains a program where enough offensive talent is collected to withstand most losses, and it is as willing as anyone to plug-in would-be attackmen in the midfield. In other words, a unit led by Nate Solomon and the unheralded Stephen Rehfuss will be fine. The question, as it has been much of this decade, is whether the defense can hold up. It was better this year, an impressive feat considering Nick Mellen’s preseason injury, but once again has to find answers in the cage with Evan Molloy graduating. One other thing --- Syracuse won about three years’ worth of one-goal games this year, and it can’t expect to replicate some of 2017’s fortunate bounces moving forward.