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What if? This is our attempt at projecting what a bracket might have looked like come May.
North Carolina was the unanimous No. 1 for everyone and the odds-on favorite to capture a title. Strong contenders to crash Championship Weekend would have been ACC contender Notre Dame and Patriot League favorite Loyola, while Syracuse and Stony Brook were poised to knock on that door as well.
It’s quite unlikely that seven ACC teams would make the NCAA tournament. Normally, those teams beat each other up and someone gets left out. Nevertheless, with the limited evidence we have, seven ACC teams make it with perennial bubble team Duke the second-to-last team in after being the first team out last year.
Given the lack of games (60 percent of regular-season matchups were canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic), some RPI numbers are askew. For example, North Carolina’s RPI is No. 5 and Notre Dame’s is No. 8. Everyone recognizes those teams as two of the top three in the country, with Loyola in that conversation, too.
It’s a fun exercise, one that will create some discussion and leave us wondering ‘what if?’
Note: RPI rankings based on 40 percent of the season being completed. There are 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the final 26-team field. The four lowest rated teams will be paired in the play-in games, slotted to travel to the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
Team | RPI | SOS |
Loyola | 1 | 1 |
USC | 3 | 16 |
Dartmouth | 3 | 17 |
UNC | 5 | 20 |
James Madison | 7 | 5 |
Stony Brook | 9 | 12 |
Florida | 10 | 7 |
UMass | 11 | 15 |
Northwestern | 15 | 13 |
Denver | 30 | 62 |
High Point | 36 | 8 |
Monmouth | 37 | 64 |
Jacksonville | 51 | 88 |
Mount St. Mary's | 55 | 107 |
Mercer | 75 | 111 |
Loyola has the top rated RPI and strength of schedule with four of its five wins against top-20 opponents in the RPI … USC would have been in line for a hosting bid on its current pace … Dartmouth would have had a great opportunity in the Ivy League to surge into the top five.
North Carolina is fifth in the RPI and surely would have screamed to the top with its firepower, so in spite of its “low” RPI, the Tar Heels are still the top overall seed … JMU was unable to overcome UNC in its early season showdown but looms as one of the squads fighting for a hosting bid … Stony Brook has again made a case for a top-five seed. The Seawolves get the four spot due to its season opening win over Syracuse.
Florida was able to grab an early win at Maryland, but fell to Loyola and Dartmouth, which means the Gators are on the road to open the tournament … UMass got that early season win over a reorganizing Boston College side. Would the Minutewomen avenge the past two A-10 finals against the Spiders? We project yes, but we’ll never know … Northwestern garners the Big Ten auto bid despite its lower-than-anticipated RPI based on Maryland’s early season stumbles and Michigan’s weak opening non-conference schedule.
The Big East would have been an interesting race this season, as Denver was the highest RPI team at No. 30 nearly halfway through the regular season, thus earning the auto bid over Georgetown (No. 38) … Yes, High Point is 1-4, but they’re still the strongest team in the Big South, which would have shown out in the duration of the season … Monmouth is the MAAC’s representative and slated to host a play-in game.
Jacksonville has a low RPI at 51, but the Dolphins are the class of the Atlantic Sun and had chances for big time wins later in the season against the likes of Princeton, Dartmouth, Florida and USC … Mount St. Mary’s finally gets its NEC crown, and its poor strength of schedule puts the Mountaineers on the road to former NEC foe Monmouth … Mercer is again the SoCon champ and again on the road for the play-in game.
AT-LARGE BIDS
19 Teams, 13 Spots
Team | RPI | SOS |
Michigan | 2 | 2 |
Penn | 6 | 4 |
Notre Dame | 8 | 23 |
Penn State | 12 | 10 |
Boston College | 13 | 3 |
Syracuse | 14 | 26 |
Johns Hopkins | 16 | 14 |
Maryland | 17 | 6 |
Virginia | 18 | 22 |
Stanford | 22 | 19 |
Albany | 23 | 9 |
Colorado | 21 | 11 |
Virginia Tech | 22 | 24 |
Richmond | 24 | 25 |
Army | 26 | 27 |
Hofstra | 28 | 33 |
Duke | 40 | 83 |
Princeton | 42 | 85 |
Navy | 48 | 29 |
Michigan took care of business when expected and would have competed for one of the final hosting positions, but a loss at USC keeps it from doing so for a second straight year.
Penn had no shame in losing to Loyola after grabbing a couple wins over Big Ten teams Johns Hopkins and Rutgers … Notre Dame proved early on it would have been a title contender. A win at Northwestern and a 2-0 start in ACC play set the stage for what would have been a tremendous road tilt against UNC.
Penn State seemed ready to return to the dance, and had plenty of games against fellow potential bubble teams coming up on the schedule … Boston College never got the chance to fully put the pieces together, but the signs were there. It would have been difficult to bet against Charlotte North and the Eagles … Syracuse was really good. Only stumble was to Stony Brook in February.
Johns Hopkins wasn’t able to get a scalp early on in the year and would have relied on doing so during Big Ten play … Maryland wasn’t the same as in past years, but still would have gotten in the field and would have been in the rare role of playing spoiler … Virginia, at exactly 400 miles from Stony Brook, gets sent on the road to face a tough Penn team.
Stanford had a losing record at the suspension of the season but surely would have climbed above that benchmark and contended for a Pac-12 title. The Cardinal seemed destined to at least split with USC, maybe even take a rubber match in the conference tournament … Albany had some interesting games remaining that could have kept the Great Danes in the conversation … Colorado was blitzed by Michigan and would have needed a strong showing in Pac-12 play to creep into the field.
Virginia Tech (7-3) showed promise in a one goal loss to JMU, but the most recent loss to Brown would have put the Hokies in peril the rest of the way. Either they or Duke would have been the likely ACC team to fall out if the season continued … Richmond didn’t get to complete the three-peat in the Atlantic 10. An early season win over Virginia showed that this Spider team was quite talented … Army may have been the No. 2 team in the Patriot League to supplant Navy, which played as Loyola’s foil for so many years.
Hofstra was destined as the No. 2 team the CAA … Duke forever living on the bubble. This was the year they’d get in, we swear! … Princeton’s RPI is low, but the Tigers were a contender in the Ivy League, which firmly gets them in.
The Matchups
Play-in Games
Mount St. Mary’s at Monmouth
Mercer at High Point
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Richmond vs. Duke
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina
Hanover, N.H.
Mount St. Mary’s/Monmouth at (8) Dartmouth
UMass vs. Boston College
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Penn vs. Virginia
Winner plays at (4) Stony Brook
Syracuse, N.Y.
Princeton vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (5) Syracuse
Baltimore, Md.
James Madison vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (2) Loyola
Los Angeles, Calif.
Mercer/High Point at (7) USC
Florida vs. Stanford
South Bend, Ind.
Maryland vs. Denver
Winner plays at (3) Notre Dame
Evanston, Ill.
Michigan vs. Jacksonville
Winner plays at (6) Northwestern
Last Four In: Penn State, Stanford, Duke, Virginia Tech
Last Four Out: Colorado, Army, Hofstra, Johns Hopkins