Stony Brook’s 3-0 week, which included victories over ranked teams like Johns Hopkins and USC, caused a ripple effect throughout Division I.
Entering last week, the Seawolves were 38th in the RPI and 46th in strength-of-schedule. This meant that Stony Book appeared in our projections only as the America East champion and as a “significant loss” to Colorado. Significant losses are categorized as those to teams ranked 31st or worse in the RPI.
Three wins later, Stony Brook shot up 19 spots to No. 19.
Now, Stony Brook appears as a significant win for Princeton, Florida and Stanford, who benefited the most by grabbing its first significant win. Florida (12th) and Princeton (10th) moved up three and four places, respectively, in the RPI. Stony Brook becomes Stanford's first Top 20 win.
Princeton appears as a top 10 victory for Maryland and Virginia. Princeton’s movement is partially related to Dartmouth’s win over Penn, as the Quakers fell out of the top 10 and deprived Northwestern of its lone top 10 win.
Additionally, Virginia Tech lost to Boston College, but by merely playing the No. 1 ranked team it improved its RPI and SOS. Now Virginia Tech is off the board as a “significant loss” to Denver.
Virginia Tech could become an even bigger factor in the next two weeks. For now, we project the Hokies in because of the win over Denver, but Tech is at the NCAA minimum .500 threshold with a single regular-season game to play. A loss to Virginia this week would necessitate two wins in the ACC tournament to be eligible.
There’s already a team under .500 that is benefiting the bubble with its current record and that team is Penn State. The Nittany Lions, who are without star senior Madison Carter due to an ACL injury, moved to 6-7 on Tuesday with a win over Duquesne.
Penn State has a lot of work to do, but if they were to win the right combination of games, they could bump an unsuspecting team off the bubble and out of the tournament. One of those games is against Stony Brook.
The point is: every game has tremendous rewards and consequences to the entire field.
Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 15), not human polls. Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included. First place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the events of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 1 | 1 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | — |
| Maryland | 2 | 3 | 6-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| USC | 8 | 20 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | — |
| Florida | 12 | 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Loyola | 13 | 17 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Denver | 15 | 34 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | — |
| Dartmouth | 16 | 15 | 0-4 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| James Madison | 18 | 47 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Stony Brook | 19 | 19 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 1- | — |
| Massachusetts | 21 | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Harvard (33) |
| Fairfield | 29 | 50 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Boston U (31) |
| Jacksonville | 35 | 68 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Oregon (82) |
| Mount St. Mary's | 37 | 86 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Army (40), Cal (51) |
| High Point | 38 | 72 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — |
| Mercer | 95 | 106 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 losses to 31+ |
Boston College’s romp through the regular season continues. The Eagles have the inside track on the overall No. 1 seed because of schedule strength ... Maryland’s profile remains similar to BC’s. The Terps won’t be able to card as many high-level victories in the Big Ten, though … USC got tripped up at Stony Brook, which was its last chance at a quality non-conference win and likely takes them out of the running for hosting duties.
Florida holds the American Athletic Conference bid due to its superior RPI over Cincinnati who is also 3-0. These two don’t meet until April 27 … Loyola is on the periphery of hosting in the NCAA tournament and will benefit from the loser of Michigan-Northwestern falling down the S-Curve … Denver can sew up a claim of the Big East regular season title with a win over Marquette this weekend …
Dartmouth is tied atop the Ivy League after its upset win over Penn, which improves its at-large profile should the Big Green fall short in the Ivy tournament … James Madison overcame Hofstra in double overtime to claim the CAA’s top spot, and thus knocking the Pride out the NCAA tournament bracket … Stony Brook has gained the most over the past two weeks in the S-Curve, which ranks the teams included in the NCAA tournament. The Seawolves’ win over USC moved its RPI up 18 spots gives them a strong at-large profile should they need it.
UMass clinched the top seed in the A-10 tournament regardless of its result against GW. The 8-0 Minutewomen have three wins by a single goal … Fairfield is a perfect 6-0 in the MAAC with the final two regular season games against the bottom two teams in the standings (Canisius, Iona) … Jacksonville’s win over Liberty puts the Dolphins the driver's seat for the A-Sun bid.
Mount St. Mary’s moved into first place in the NEC with a tight win over Wagner … High Point's relatively high RPI (38th) belies its ability as evidenced by a win over Johns Hopkins earlier this year. The Panthers could avoid the play-in games should they nab the Big South bid … Mercer is atop the SoCon with Detroit Mercer and gets the nod due to a better RPI and head-to-head win over the Titans.
At-Large Bids (18 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3 | 6 | 3-3 | 2-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Virginia | 4 | 2 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 5 | 7 | 3-3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Michigan | 6 | 31 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 7 | 8 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 9 | 27 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Princeton | 10 | 21 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Brown (50) |
| Penn | 11 | 12 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Navy | 14 | 25 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 17 | 16 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2-0 | High Point (38) |
| Stanford | 20 | 20 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Colorado | 22 | 11 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 1-0 | — |
| Hofstra | 23 | 23 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | — |
| Georgetown | 25 | 25 | 0-1 | 0-5 | 0-0 | — |
| Liberty | 26 | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Jacksonville (35) |
| Duke | 27 | 26 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-0 | — |
| Virginia Tech | 28 | 14 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 0-2 | — |
| Richmond | 30 | 69 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | George Mason (42) |
| Boston University | 32 | 49 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Harvard (33) |
North Carolina’s win over Syracuse was a big gain for the Tar Heels, who earn the overall 3rd seed in our latest projection, while the Orange hold steady at No. 4 … Virginia has one top 10 win (Princeton) and a bevy of other quality victories.
Michigan moved up a couple spots in the RPI and has a big test against Northwestern on Thursday that may determine who ultimately gets to host games this postseason. As of now, both are in line to gain hosting duties … Notre Dame slips a couple spots because its RPI fell despite a win over Duke. The Irish will face Northwestern before the ACC tournament.
Princeton creeps into the RPI top 10 and now has four top 20 wins to offset the one bad lass (Brown) … Penn’s loss to Dartmouth drops the team down the S-Curve. The Quakers have just one win over an RPI top 20 team … Navy has a solid profile: no bad losses and a win over Florida that will get the Mids into the tournament barring a bad loss down the stretch.
Johns Hopkins’ win over Loyola is what currently gets the Blue Jays in in another year on the bubble … Stanford gained by Hofstra’s loss to JMU, which opened up an at-large spot. Also, Stony Brook’s rise gives the Cardinal a top 20 win that it didn’t have before … Colorado has three wins over teams currently in the NCAA tournament (USC, Stanford, Virginia Tech).
Hofstra’s loss to JMU currently looms large as it temporarily extinguishes the Pride’s hope for an at-large because the only RPI top 30 win is over Fairfield (29) … Another team who is lacking quality wins is Georgetown. Today’s game vs. Maryland is its last chance before the Big East tournament … Liberty’s loss to Jacksonville knocked the Flames into the at-large pool.
Duke’s rivalry game against UNC takes on extra urgency this week as a win over the Tar Heels would cement an at-large spot. Despite a win over Virginia Tech, the Blue Devil’s resume is not strong … Virginia Tech get the nod over Duke because of its win over Denver. The Hokies are in trouble, however, because of its 8-8 record. Saturday’s game at Virginia is huge because a loss forces Virginia Tech to win at least two in the ACC tournament just to be NCAA eligible.
Richmond’s path to the NCAA tournament is through the Atlantic 10 as spoiler again this year … Boston University has quietly moved up the RPI rankings. The Terriers still have Navy on its schedule to build its résumé.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-in Games
Mercer (SOUTHERN) at Jacksonville (ATLANTIC SUN)
Mount St. Mary’s (NORTHEAST) at Fairfield (MAAC)
First Round
Newton, Mass.
Dartmouth (IVY) vs. Massachusetts (ATLANTIC 10)
Winner plays at (1) Boston College (ACC)
Ann Arbor, Mich.
Mount St. Mary’s (NEC)/Fairfield (MAAC) at (8) Michigan
USC (PAC-12) vs. Florida (AMERICAN)
Syracuse, N.Y.
Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST) vs. Navy
Winner plays at (4) Syracuse
Notre Dame, Ind.
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Colorado
Winner plays at (5) Notre Dame
College Park, Md.
Penn vs. James Madison (CAA)
Winner plays at (2) Maryland (BIG TEN)
Evanston, Ill.
Mercer (SOUTHERN)/Jacksonville (A-SUN) at (7) Northwestern
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Stanford
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Johns Hopkins vs. High Point (BIG SOUTH)
Winner play at (3) North Carolina
Charlottesville, Va.
Princeton vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (6) Virginia
Last Four In: Johns Hopkins, Navy, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Last Four Out: Duke, Hofstra, Georgetown, Richmond
Moving In: Stanford, Jacksonville, Mount St. Mary’s, Mercer
Moving Out: Hofstra, Liberty, Wagner, Furman
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (3), Pac-12 (3), Patriot (2)