At-Large (19 teams/8 slots)
|
W-L
|
RPI
|
T5
|
T10
|
T20
|
Notable Losses (25+)
|
Duke |
11-1 |
1 |
3-0 |
4-1 |
6-1 |
--- |
Army |
6-2 |
2 |
1-1 |
3-1 |
2-2 |
--- |
North Carolina |
9-2 |
3 |
2-2 |
3-2 |
4-2 |
--- |
Virginia |
10-3 |
4 |
2-3 |
3-3 |
5-3 |
--- |
Syracuse |
5-4 |
5 |
1-3 |
1-4 |
1-4 |
--- |
Notre Dame |
6-1 |
8 |
2-1 |
2-1 |
2-1 |
--- |
Denver |
9-3 |
10 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
1-3 |
--- |
Rutgers |
7-2 |
12 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
--- |
Drexel |
6-2 |
14 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
2-1 |
at UMass (28) |
Navy |
4-2 |
16 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
--- |
Towson |
6-6 |
17 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
1-5 |
--- |
Bryant |
5-3 |
21 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
Hobart (26), Stony Brook (31) |
Loyola |
5-5 |
22 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
2-5 |
--- |
Albany |
6-3 |
23 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
at Stony Brook (31), Vermont (36) |
UMBC |
6-2 |
24 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
at Binghamton (39) |
Villanova |
5-3 |
25 |
0-0 |
0-3 |
0-3 |
--- |
Vermont |
5-3 |
36 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
--- |
Hofstra |
6-4 |
38 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
UMass (28), St. John's (50) |
In a normal year, a team with the top RPI that also has the most top-five wins, top-10 wins and top-20 wins is going to be the No. 1 seed. That’s reflected below for Duke. … Army probably isn’t going to be a top-two seed, in part because (for the moment, anyway) Syracuse isn’t going to be treated like a top-five seed. The Black Knights’ victory at the Carrier Dome in February has decreased in value this month. …
North Carolina might not be the best team in the country on its typical day. But the best version of the Tar Heels — seen against Denver, the second time around against High Point and at Syracuse — is an impressive juggernaut. … Virginia gets into the barn this weekend. A top-four seed is probably waiting if the Cavaliers can beat Syracuse. …
Speaking of the Orange, Syracuse has lost three games at home by at least seven goals. In a year when hard data might take on less of a role, the Orange’s anyone-can-see-it vulnerability is going to get factored in. … Notre Dame’s low RPI is in part a function of a modest non-conference schedule. Facing Duke and North Carolina this week will help with that problem. …
Denver might not be as much of a sure-fire at-large as the top four ACC teams, but the Pioneers can solve that problem in three steps: Beating St. John’s, Villanova and whoever they meet in the Big East semifinals. … Thanks to the wonders of the Big Ten’s closed circuit, Rutgers hasn’t beaten anyone with an RPI of better than 33. No team is going to get helped more by regional advisory committee (RAC) input than the Scarlet Knights. …
Drexel has won five in a row and might just be the best of the rest beyond the Elevated Eleven. … Navy is one of the few teams left that could make itself an intriguing at-large possibility. The Midshipmen have an opportunity to do that Saturday when Army visits Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. …
Towson still has home games against Delaware and Drexel. Win both, and the Tigers will be poised to create some havoc in the ever-unpredictable CAA tournament. … You don’t want to stand out in a bad way. Having two items in the “notable losses” column — like Bryant, Albany and Hofstra do — is not ideal. …
Same goes for an absence of high-end victories. Vermont and Villanova have that problem, though ’Nova has a chance to fix that thanks to a rescheduled home game against Denver on April 28. … Loyola also has a valuable meeting with a Big East power still to come (May 1 vs. Georgetown), but the Greyhounds sure look like they’ll need to win the Patriot League to make the field of 16.
BRACKET
With the NCAA’s announcement of the tournament’s first-round sites running behind schedule, the same premises from last week hold up: One northern site, one site south of the Potomac and two sites dropped between Philadelphia and Washington to create geographic flexibility.
The NCAA typically tries to limit the first round to two teams requiring flights. Denver and Notre Dame would have to fly to any East Coast destination, and Saint Joseph’s would if the southern site was Chapel Hill, N.C. (The distance from the Hawks’ campus to Duke fits just inside the NCAA’s 400-mile window to determine flights).
Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(1) Duke vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s Southern site
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Rutgers Mid-Atlantic site
Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal
(5) North Carolina vs. COLONIAL/Delaware Southern site
(4) Virginia vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond Mid-Atlantic site
Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal
(3) Notre Dame vs. AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook Mid-Atlantic site
(6) PATRIOT/Lehigh vs. Syracuse Northern site
Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Army vs. Denver Northern site
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Monmouth Mid-Atlantic site