The Case For North Carolina
With the dawning of the shot clock era, the Tar Heels will assume the identity that has defined them for most of the Breschi era – a team looking to score in bunches and get into the teens regularly. Last year, that didn’t happen enough, as numerous Tar Heels endured shooting slumps, faceoff man Charles Kelly’s shoulder problems hurt Carolina’s possession time and its goalies had trouble stopping shots. Kelly is back and healthy, with talented freshman FOGO Zach Tucci pushing him hard. The returning junior midfield of Justin Anderson, William Perry (22G) and Tanner Cook (17G) looks rejuvenated. Timmy Kelly (21G) and Andy Matthews (8G, 26A) lead the attack.
The Case Against North Carolina
Two years ago, the Tar Heels followed their surprising NCAA title run with an 8-8 finish, punctuated by a quick exit from the big tournament and an offense that slipped to 18th in scoring after residing in the top five or on the cusp of it for a number of years. One wondered if that was a blip. Last year, Carolina slid further, with a lot of youth and offensive futility. During a defining 1-5 stretch in March, the Tar Heels reached 10 goals twice (both losses), averaging eight goals. Carolina finished ranked 27th in scoring (10.93) and shooting percentage (30.8). “We were a confident group at the beginning of the season. When you’re young, confidence is a fragile thing,” Breschi said.
Path to the Playoffs
The Tar Heels once again will have numerous chances to score RPI and strength-of-schedule points in their nonconference schedule, especially against the likes of Johns Hopkins, Denver and Maryland. Last year, Carolina narrowly avoided bad losses to Furman and St. John’s during their 6-0 start, which in hindsight was a sign of things to come. The Tar Heels need to tighten up there. But the five-team Atlantic Coast Conference ultimately will prove how much Carolina has improved. Their three ACC losses were by a total of five goals, but those losses were enough to knock the Tar Heels out of the conference tournament that no longer yields an automatic bid.
Players To Watch
Justin Anderson, M, Jr.
10G, 9A
Anderson is a co-captain this year, and Breschi says his game has improved as his leadership ability has developed. Anderson, who took just 37 shots in 2018, needs to assert himself more. “He’s really developed his game,” Breschi said. “He can dodge a pole and shoot lefty or righty. He’s not letting bad shots affect him.”
Andy Matthews, A, Sr.
8G, 26A, 28 GB
Matthews was more than willing to pass up a split dodge or an open shot last year, preferring to move the ball to others. He took only 17 shots. Breschi needs Matthew to be less willing to defer with the ball in his stick. “You have to be a threat to dodge and create on your own,” Breschi said.
Jack Pezzula, G, Jr.
10.66 GAA, 43.9 SV%
Like numerous Tar Heels, Pezzula started decently enough in 2018. But a crisis of confidence ensued in March, after Pezzula stopped only one shot in a loss at Richmond and one shot in a home loss against Denver. Pezzula once again has the edge over senior Alex Bassill (11.03 GAA) after a solid fall.
National Rankings
Category
|
Rank
|
Value
|
Offense |
27th |
10.93 GPG |
Defense |
46th |
10.93 GAA |
Faceoffs |
53rd |
44.1 FO% |
Ground Balls |
46th |
26.29/game |
Caused TO |
58th |
5.5/game |
Shooting |
27th |
30.8% |
Man-Up |
8th |
47.7% |
Man-Down |
20th |
69.8% |
Assists |
33rd |
5.93/game |
Turnovers |
3rd |
10.64/game |
Clearing |
35th |
87.4% |
Power Ratings (Scale of 1-5)
Offense
⭐⭐⭐
Defense
⭐⭐⭐
Goalkeeping
⭐⭐⭐
Faceoff
⭐⭐⭐⭐
9.1
The Tar Heels’ scoring average over their final eight games, during which Carolina went 1-7. During its 6-0 start, when it had a healthy Charles Kelly facing off and was playing its share of more beatable opponents, Carolina averaged 13.3 scores. If the Tar Heels can’t regularly score in the teens with a shot clock, trouble lies ahead.
5-Year Trend
Scoring Offense
Year
|
Rank
|
GPG
|
2014 |
4th |
13.00 |
2015 |
3rd |
14.35 |
2016 |
6th |
13.06 |
2017 |
18th |
11.50 |
2018 |
27th |
10.93 |
Coach Confidential
Joe Breschi
“We have to play good defense,” said Breschi, who loves the rapid progress made by 6-foot-3, 210-pound freshman defenseman Will Bowen, who will start with senior defensemen Jack Rowlett and Michael Nathan and senior LSM Jack Halpert. “We want to capitalize on our transition game, run whenever we can and play as fast as we can.”
Enemy Lines
“The team struggled to identify its defensive philosophy last year. They found success with a zone defense for a while and then reverted back to man-to-man. What is their identity in the defensive end? I’m concerned with the shot clock. Do they start playing faster and 10-man riding? With the athletes they have down there, that could be unleashing the thoroughbreds.”
“Looking at probably the greatest turnaround of the top teams in a long time. They’re going to be great. With the change in defensive culture with Kevin Unterstein, they are going to be much improved just with the change of philosophy.”
“A lot of guys back. Very talented. They should be a veteran group on the offensive end, for sure. I think if they can shore up the faceoff and goalie thing, they’re going to be a bear. Last year, they weren’t settled in those two positions.”