North Carolina, two years removed from winning the school’s fifth NCAA crown, is already done with a 7-7 mark.
A seven-game losing streak that began on March 5 doomed the Tar Heels, who will miss the NCAAs for the first time since Joe Breschi took over the program in 2009. Carolina is one of three ACC schools to finish with a 1-3 mark against league competition.
Although Syracuse (7-5) is the top seed — by virtue of a 4-0 record that includes a 15-14 victory over Duke — the Orange are the perfect illustration of the ACC’s bumpy ride in 2018.
In nonconference play, Syracuse has gone 3-5, a hiccup that includes three defeats at the Dome, two of them blowouts by Albany and Johns Hopkins by a combined 23 goals. The last time the Orange lost that often at home was in 2007, when a rare losing season (5-8) included four missteps at home.
Saturday’s stunning 13-12 loss to visiting Navy, which scored twice in the final 12 seconds to win in regulation, left the Orange reeling. Before the Midshipmen silenced the Dome, Syracuse had won 13 of 15 one-goal games over the past two seasons.
“We’ve been so up and down all year long, some of it to be expected with as many young guys as we’re playing, some of it because we’re still making bad decisions late in games,” said John Desko, the 20th-year head coach who has won 243 games and led the Orange to five NCAA titles.
“When you win by five goals, you don’t sweat the small stuff. When you lose by a goal, every mistake is magnified,” he added. “After we beat Duke [on March 24], I thought we’d turned the corner. That’s not been the case. I’m still trying to put my finger on it, whether [the problem] is failed execution or [lack of] emotion or youth. We still have time to fix some things, but not much.”
In typical years, a spotless, regular-season mark in ACC play would make this weekend all about shoring up a first-round home game and a high seed on Selection Sunday. Not this year. If the Orange (RPI 9) loses in Friday’s semifinal to fourth-seeded Virginia — Syracuse edged the Cavs 12-11 on March 4 — it probably must beat Colgate next week to avoid missing out on the postseason.
Syracuse has plenty of uncomfortable company in that regard.
Notre Dame, which under 30th-year coach Kevin Corrigan has been to 10 straight NCAA tournaments and lost to Duke in the final in 2010 and 2014, is on unsteady ground with a 6-5 record.
The Fighting Irish, also 1-3 against their own, have dropped three of their past four, including a damaging 10-9 setback inflicted by the Tar Heels on Saturday. Seeded No. 3 in the ACC tournament, the Irish hold a solid RPI (8) and would clinch an at-large bid to the NCAAs by upsetting second-seeded Duke in the semifinals.
However, if Notre Dame loses on Friday to the Blue Devils (three weeks after Duke left South Bend with an 8-2 win), it might have to avoid an upset next week against visiting Army to keep its string of NCAA tournament appearances rolling.
If Virginia (10-4, RPI 10) knocks off Syracuse on Friday and either wins the tournament on Sunday or avoids an unthinkable loss to VMI in its regular-season finale, the Cavs likely would advance to their first NCAA tournament since 2015. If UVA loses to the Orange, it is probably out once again, since its only signature win would be against Loyola (RPI 5) in the season opener.
As second-year head coach Lars Tiffany well knows, Virginia recently snapped an 18-game losing streak against the ACC by downing North Carolina 15-12.
“There are only two ACC teams [Duke and Syracuse] that deserve to feel confident about being part of what will happen in May,” Tiffany said.