FOUR TEAMS, THREE SEEDS
The committee relied on the final RPI to determine its top eight seeds as well as the 14 at-large teams. North Carolina was undoubtedly the No. 1 seed, followed by Maryland, Boston College and Northwestern, which fell in line with the RPI. From there, things got a little jumbled.
Syracuse (RPI No. 6) moved up to the No. 5 seed. And those pining for Loyola (18-1) to get a seed had their wishes granted. More importantly, the Greyhounds’ impressive play is what got them the coveted No. 6 seed.
“They finished as a one-loss team, and their one loss was relatively early in the season to Syracuse,” Scerbo noted. “When you have a team on a [10-game] win streak, I think very similar to where Maryland was, they continued to win, and that was the one thing we returned to in all our decisions. The wins were the most critical point we kept coming back to.”
Florida (RPI No. 5) slotted in at No. 7, while Stony Brook’s seed matched its RPI at No. 8. Left out was Rutgers (RPI No. 7), whose win over Northwestern Friday night seemed to get enough traction for a seed, but in the end, the Scarlet Knights will be traveling to Stony Brook in a possible 8-v-9 matchup.
“That was a difficult decision,” Scerbo admitted. “That was one where we ran the conversation with (Rutgers’) win over Northwestern that vaulted them up from our last reveal … we definitely considered moving them into a seeded spot, but then looking at the results from [Sunday], analyzing the data, running the RPI, we gave the nod to Stony Brook. It came down to secondary criteria, and it was a difficult decision.”
If one had to guess which secondary criteria the committee used to separate those teams, it was likely late-season performance coupled with non-conference RPI. Rutgers went 4-2 with a non-conference RPI of 12 entering Sunday’s Big Ten title game, while Stony Brook was 6-0 with a non-conference RPI of 6.
TUCKER GETS ONE MORE DANCE
Johns Hopkins head coach Janine Tucker gets another trip to the NCAA tournament. The retiring coach had to wait until the final pairing of teams was called for her Blue Jays to make the field — a surprise to many and a delight to those inside the Hopkins locker room.
The Blue Jays’ late-season surge included a win over Ohio State to reach the Big Ten tournament. Johns Hopkins and Michigan gave the Big Ten five teams in the tournament after getting just three a year ago.
THE FAVORITE
North Carolina. The undefeated Tar Heels (18-0) haven’t been tested much this season and have weapons at every position. Since 2006, the national champion has been at least a No. 3 seed, and that seems likely to hold true again this year.
The Tar Heels’ path to Homewood Field will be through either USC or Virginia in the second round and likely No. 8 Stony Brook or the unseeded Scarlet Knights mentioned before. Also in North Carolina’s half of the bracket are No. 4 Northwestern and No. 5 Syracuse, provided the Orange can advance while on the road (more on that later).
The greatest threat to UNC completing its perfect season must be No. 2 Maryland. The Terrapins (17-1) have been rolling lately, and aside from a slip up against James Madison, they’ve handled everyone else with ease.
LAST FOUR IN
According to Scerbo, the final four teams (in no particular order) were UConn, Johns Hopkins, UMass and Michigan. Our guess on the order is UMass was the final team in the field, preceded by Michigan, Johns Hopkins and UConn.
FIRST FOUR OUT
As listed by Scerbo: Temple, Arizona State, Yale and Ohio State. Again, he didn’t provide an order here, but Arizona State seems like the one that was closest to getting in, followed by Ohio State (RPI No. 23), Temple (RPI No. 22) and Yale (RPI No. 25). The Bulldogs were a bit of a surprise inclusion given that they didn’t beat anyone with an RPI better than 31 all season long.
It’s the second straight year that the Sun Devils were among the first four teams left out. Beyond the first four out, Vanderbilt, Army, Richmond, Navy, Towson and Virginia Tech were not mentioned.
“With their RPIs as low as they are we didn’t move much down into the 30s or the 40s,” Scerbo said. “Again, that was such a big factor, and being a specific factor we remained focused on teams with RPIs above that 30 mark.”
BIGGEST SNUB
Arizona State. See above.
TOUGHEST DRAW
It feels like this is written every year: the Stony Brook pod. Rutgers is probably deserving of a seed and has a tough test in Saint Joseph’s in the opening game, while SBU has to get past a scrappy Drexel team that won the CAA tournament for the first time.
After that, it’s Loyola that must run a likely gauntlet of national championship programs in James Madison, Boston College and Maryland to reach the final.