The result that sent shockwaves through the bubble was Georgetown’s miraculous comeback win over Denver Saturday evening. The Hoyas’ double OT win gained them entry to an NCAA tournament they weren’t slated to make as an at-large. The team that gets knocked out in our projection is Duke, who plays VCU today in a non-conference game.
This comes on the heels of Friday night’s Maryland victory over Penn State, which knocked the Nittany Lions from at-large consideration, which gave temporary relief to those on the bubble.
There remains one bid thief going into today’s three championship games: Hofstra. If the Pride are able to pull the upset over defending champion James Madison, the Dukes get pushed onto the bubble and likely knock out Johns Hopkins.
Elsewhere in the field, Northwestern’s dominating win likely locked up a top-five seed regardless of the result to Maryland in the Big Ten final. The Wildcats have a superior RPI and a more significant wins over other tournament teams than Virginia, Princeton or Loyola. Michigan’s loss paves the way for the Greyhounds to gain that eighth spot.
The biggest storyline come Sunday night might be the fact that Michigan and Notre Dame, teams who are on the verge of being seeded, could be sent to Northwestern. Three top-15 teams sent to one pod is unheard of, but the committee will have a major decision to make: Create another flight and maintain bracket integrity or keep them close to home on a bus trip.
In other years the first scenario may be palatable, but there are already three Pac-12 teams slated to be in as well as Denver, Florida and the Jacksonville/Mercer winner who will need flights to their respective regionals. Expect a loaded pod in Evanston.
Notes:
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Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Saturday night, per LaxBytes replica), not human polls.
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Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included.
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First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers.
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In the events of a tie, the projected AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.
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With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 1 | 5 | 7-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | — |
| North Carolina* | 3 | 4 | 5-2 | 1-1 | 3-0 | — |
| Princeton | 7 | 16 | 1-2 | 5-0 | 0-0 | Brown (48) |
| Florida* | 8 | 11 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| USC* | 9 | 28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5-1 | — |
| Loyola* | 11 | 12 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 1-0 | — |
| James Madison | 17 | 34 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Stony Brook* | 20 | 23 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Richmond* | 23 | 58 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 | George Mason (47) |
| Georgetown* | 25 | 15 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 0- | Marquette (56) |
| High Point* | 28 | 43 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Jacksonville* | 29 | 74 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-0 | Oregon (81) |
| Fairfield* | 33 | 89 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Boston U. (39) |
| Wagner* | 36 | 87 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | Mount St. Mary's (35), Vanderbilt (41) |
| Mercer* | 89 | 106 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 Losses of 31+ |
* clinched AQ
Maryland can sweep the regular season with a win over Northwestern in the Big Ten final. A loss to the Wildcats could bump the Terps out of the No. 1 seed … North Carolina is poised for a top-three seed … Princeton faces Penn in the Ivy League championship game, where a win over the Quakers would solidify the Tigers’ grip on a top-eight seed.
Florida beat a game Cincinnati squad for the first AAC title. The Gators are lacking any top-15 wins to gain consideration for hosting rights … USC was idle this week after its Pac-12 title run last week. The Trojans have a similar profile to the Gators … Loyola finally beat Navy at home in the Patriot League final. The Greyhounds have the inside track for the last seed.
James Madison is the favorite in today’s CAA final against Hofstra. A loss to the Pride would put the Dukes in a perilous position on the bubble … Stony Brook won its seventh straight America East title over Albany … Richmond might see the play-in game this week.
Georgetown provided the first major shock of conference tournament week in its double-overtime win over Denver … High Point has a quality profile and could provide a first-round upset … Jacksonville held off a feisty Liberty squad 20-18 for the Atlantic Sun title.
Fairfield won another one-goal game, this time to clinch a second straight MAAC title … Wagner won at Mount St. Mary’s to get into the NCAA tournament with the Northeast Conference’s AQ. The Seahawks and Stags will meet in a play-in game and it’s a coin flip on who will host … Mercer won its second straight Southern Conference title. The Bears should be traveling to Jacksonville or Richmond.
At-Large Bids (17 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 2 | 2 | 6-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 4 | 6 | 2-4 | 5-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 5 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Virginia | 6 | 3 | 1-5 | 4-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Michigan | 10 | 17 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Navy | 12 | 25 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Penn | 13 | 24 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Denver | 14 | 36 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-2 | Virginia Tech (32) |
| Notre Dame | 15 | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-1 | — |
| Dartmouth | 16 | 20 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 19 | 14 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 2-1 | — |
| Colorado | 21 | 13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-1 | — |
| UMass | 22 | 50 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Harvard (43) |
| Stanford | 24 | 35 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Hofstra | 26 | 31 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | Towson (37) |
| Duke | 27 | 9 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | — |
| Liberty | 30 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-4 | — |
Boston College is the likely No. 2 seed with an outside chance of No. 1 if Maryland stumbles … Northwestern is slated for a top five seed and will be hard pressed to pass North Carolina or Syracuse even with a win over Maryland.
Virginia looks like a lock for a top-eight seed as it owns wins over Princeton, Loyola and Navy … Michigan is likely to be the first team left out of the seed lines … Navy owns two wins over tournament teams (Florida, Georgetown).
Penn could spoil Princeton’s hopes for a seed … Denver need not fret with at least three wins over tournament teams, four if Stanford gets in … Notre Dame has two top 10 wins, but little else.
Dartmouth is squarely on the bubble, but its win over Penn earlier this year should get the Big Green in … Johns Hopkins sweats a bit more after Georgetown steals a bid. The Hoyas now count as the Blue Jays’ second significant victory … Colorado’s No. 21 RPI will make it tough on the committee, but the Buffs’ win over USC and two wins over Stanford should do the trick.
UMass has just one quality win (Richmond), which won’t be enough to get the Minutewomen in … Stanford is our last team projected in the field on the strength of having two wins over tournament teams (Stony Brook, Colorado) … Hofstra needs to beat James Madison to get in the field.
Duke plays VCU today. The Blue Devils have to hope the committee views its lone quality win (Notre Dame) in better light than Stanford’s wins over Stony Brook and Colorado or Johns Hopkins victories over Loyola and Georgetown … Liberty fell just short to Jacksonville. With nary a good win or a bad loss on its profile, the Flames just don’t have enough to get in the tournament.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
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The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
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It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
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The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-in Games
Mercer/SOUTHERN at Jacksonville/ATLANTIC SUN
Fairfield/MAAC at Wagner/NORTHEAST
College Park, Md.
Colorado vs. Johns Hopkins
Colorado/Johns Hopkins at (1) Maryland/BIG TEN
Baltimore, Md.
Fairfield/Wagner at (8) Loyola/PATRIOT
Navy vs. High Point/BIG SOUTH
Syracuse, N.Y.
Penn vs. Stanford
Penn/Stanford at (4) Syracuse
Evanston, Ill.
Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Michigan/Notre Dame at (5) Northwestern
Newton, Mass.
Denver vs. Dartmouth
Denver/Dartmouth at (2) Boston College
Princeton, N.J.
Mercer/Jacksonville at (7) Princeton/IVY
Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST vs. Richmond (Atlantic 10)
Chapel Hill, N.C.
USC (Pac-12) vs. James Madison/CAA
USC/James Madison at (3) North Carolina/ATLANTIC COAST
Charlottesville, Va.
Florida/AMERICAN vs. Georgetown/BIG EAST
Florida/Georgetown at (6) Virginia
Last four in: Colorado, Dartmouth, Johns Hopkins, Stanford
First four out: Duke, UMass, Hofstra, Liberty
Moving in: Georgetown, Mercer, Wagner
Moving out: Duke, Furman, Mount St. Mary’s
Multi-bid conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (3), Pac-12 (3), Big East (2), Patriot (2)