2. VIRGINIA
2022 record: 12-4 (5-1 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Seeing its dreams of a third consecutive NCAA title dashed with a quarterfinal drubbing against Maryland.
Initial forecast: So, what did we learn about the Cavaliers last season? One, they weren’t as good as Maryland (not that anyone was). Two, they couldn’t beat Duke in the regular season (which they haven’t done since 2004, so nothing new there). And three, they went 12-1 against everyone else, with the loss coming against Richmond on a day when faceoff ace Petey LaSalla got hurt in the first half. So while Virginia didn’t win its third consecutive NCAA tournament and even wound up unseeded, it was pretty well understood that the Cavaliers were a team no one wanted to deal with in May (besides maybe Maryland). Moore is the only departing full-time starter, and Virginia will bring back 79.5 percent of its scoring. That’s five 30-point scorers back in the fold, led by Connor Shellenberger (32 goals, 44 assists) and Payton Cormier (50 goals, 10 assists). It includes LaSalla, who won 59.7 percent of his draws. The Cavaliers will also feature a full returning close defense (Cole Kastner, Quentin Matsui and Cade Saustad) and goalie Matt Nunes, who started all but one game as a freshman. Oh, and Thomas McConvey, the America East’s offensive player of the year last season, arrives in Charlottesville as a graduate transfer a year after scoring a program-record 60 goals for Vermont. The cupboard is full and then some in coach Lars Tiffany’s program, and Virginia should have a say in who ultimately celebrates on Memorial Day 2023. With titles in 2019 and 2021, perhaps the Cavaliers will continue their odd-year streak next spring.
1. MARYLAND
2022 record: 18-0 (5-0 Big Ten)
Last seen: Capping Division I’s first perfect season since 2006 by fending off Cornell 9-7 in the national title game, earning the Terrapins their first NCAA championship since 2017 and their fourth overall.
Initial forecast: A national champion shouldn’t automatically start the next season at No. 1, but it’s tempting to make an exception for one as dominant as the Terrapins were in 2022. To be certain, Maryland absorbed some serious losses: Tewaaraton Award winner Logan Wisnauskas and fellow attackman Keegan Khan, midfielders Anthony DeMaio and Jonathan Donville, defensive midfielders Bubba Fairman and Roman Puglise and defenseman Matt Rahill, not to mention offensive coordinator Bobby Benson. And yet there’s still the outline of a national title contender from the key pieces who remain. Eric Malever (26 goals, 22 assists), Kyle Long (16 goals, 25 assists) and Owen Murphy (34 goals) will all move into more prominent spots on offense, faceoff man Luke Wierman (.661) is coming off a stellar season and Brett Makar and Ajax Zappitello should be among the best close defensemen in the country while playing in front of goalie Logan McNaney (.597 save percentage). Maryland isn’t going to average 17.7 goals again, and it’s probably going to (gasp!) lose a few times along the way after winning 35 of its last 36 games. It won’t be a best-team-in-a-generation outfit, but the Terps are going to be more than capable of pushing for their 10th NCAA semifinal appearance in coach John Tillman’s 13-year tenure. If things break, a successful title defense isn't out of the question.