T-25. SYRACUSE
2022 record: 4-10 (1-5 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Surrendering an average of 17.5 goals during a six-game losing streak to stagger to the end of a forgettable season.
Initial forecast: There’s a case to be made — and a really good one, too — that the Orange belong nowhere near this conversation at the moment. After all, it’s a program that bottomed out in coach Gary Gait’s first season, and it has everything in the world to prove on the defensive end. Syracuse was 66th nationally in scoring defense (14.71), 71st in saves per game (10.07) and a dead-last 72nd (.426) in man-down defense, and any chance the Orange have of achieving respectability is rooted in massive improvement on that end of the field. The good news is Syracuse can’t get much worse, and the addition of LIU transfer Will Mark should improve the goalie situation. The newcomers on offense — Alex Simmons (Denver), Cole Kirst (Lehigh) and freshman Joey Spallina, among them — will generate more attention, and they’ll no doubt help immediately. At the very least, Gait and defensive coordinator Dave Pietramala know all too well what needs tinkering. The guess here is the Orange get better as the spring goes along, and perhaps even spoils someone’s season (like they did with Duke in 2022).
T-25. JOHNS HOPKINS
2022 record: 7-9 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last seen: Wrapping up a third consecutive sub-.500 season, this time with a 16-11 loss to Maryland in the Big Ten semifinals that at least had the benefit of not being nearly as bad as the 22-7 throttling the Blue Jays endured two weeks earlier at Homewood Field.
Initial forecast: Sticking with the early theme of former national powers stuck in a down cycle, the Blue Jays are 13-24 over the last three seasons and last won an NCAA tournament game in 2018. Those kinds of tidbits will not go over well with Hopkins fans, who have now gone 15 years without a national title. Still, Hopkins had a few moments last season, with victories over Jacksonville and Loyola in February and an emphatic sweep of struggling Penn State late. The Blue Jays changed offensive coordinators, bringing back alum John Crawley from Lehigh to take over for John Grant Jr. There’s still some talent in place, and the addition of Georgetown long pole Alex Mazzone as a grad transfer will help. Yet it’s hard to be overly bullish about this bunch’s ceiling. Of the 16 team statistics tracked by the NCAA, Hopkins didn’t finish in the top 30 (out of 72) in any of them (man-up offense led the way at No. 31). Until the Blue Jays find something to really hang their hats on, they’ll be hard pressed to make a serious postseason push.