12. JAMES MADISON
2021 record: 12-5 (3-1 CAA)
Last seen: One of the hottest teams in the nation entering the NCAA tournament, the Dukes fell to UNC in the second round.
Initial forecast: It feels like we’ve talked about Molly Dougherty for years. She’s started games as far back as her freshman year in 2018, and although she relinquished two starts to Kat Buchanan in 2021, she came up huge with the Dukes’ season on the line — making a clutch save in overtime against Drexel of the CAA championship game. With Dougherty and an experienced defensive core of Mairead Durkin, Charlotte Smith, Nicholle Marshall and Carolyn Thistlewaite back on campus, there’s a solid foundation still in place. Offensively, redshirt-senior Katie Checkosky (five goals, 19 assists) will look to build off a season in which she was only active for eight games. Only two key offensive cogs aren’t back — Daria Lucchesi and Charlotte Haggerty — so the Dukes’ attack will again run through Isabella Peterson, Kacey Knobloch and Katelyn Morgan. JMU turned it on late in 2021, and that end-of-season team to expect again this spring.
11. VIRGINIA
2021 record: 9-9 (3-7 ACC)
Last seen: The Cavaliers lost six straight entering the NCAA tournament but beat UConn in the first round before losing at Notre Dame.
Initial forecast: A 5-0 start to the season intimated that there was great potential in Charlottesville, but the Cavaliers finished just 3-8 after an 18-7 win over George Mason on March 10. The ACC gauntlet was — as predicted — difficult to navigate, but a loss against Virginia Tech to close the regular season was particularly disheartening. Still, UVA made the NCAA tournament. The profile for the Cavs isn’t discouraging heading into 2022. Ashlyn McGovern (38 goals) is coming off a prolific offensive season, and while Taylor Regan (24 goals, 16 assists) is out of the picture, Lillie Kloak (30 goals), Annie Dyson (25 goals, 10 assists) and Morgan Schwab (23 goals, 13 assists) are still on hand to provide ample support. More should be expected from Mackenzie Hoeg, who posted 19 goals and 10 assists as a freshman. Offense shouldn’t be the problem here. The concern lies on defense, where Meredith Chapman has graduated and goalie Charlie Campbell has transferred to Stony Brook for a grad year. That leaves Aislinn McCarthy as the incumbent. She played 142 minutes but saved just 34.4 percent of shots last spring.