US Lacrosse Magazine released the Nike/US Lacrosse Division I Men’s Preseason Top 20 on Jan. 2. Team-by-team previews will be unveiled on uslaxmagazine.com through the end of the month and will also appear as part of the magazine’s NCAA preview edition in February.

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No. 2 Duke

2018 Record: 16-4 (3-1 Atlantic Coast)
Coach: John Danowski (13^th season)

All-Time Record: 560-411-1
NCAA Appearances: 22
Final Fours: 11
Championships: 3

Duke coach John Danowski isn’t quite sure entirely what to make of his team heading into 2019.

Not because of personnel question marks. Not because of injuries. Not because of locker room issues.

The uncertainty comes from the sport itself.

“The rules have changed over the years many times,” Danowski said. “But this is quite different.”

“This,” of course, is the advent of the shot clock, something Danowski spent the fall grappling with after leading Duke to its ninth trip to the final four in 12 years last May.

“I have no idea — literally, none,” Danowski said. “I don’t know how our opponents are going to play. Are they going to play more zone? Will they 10-man ride like Notre Dane and North Carolina and Yale have done in the past? Will everybody now give is a soft 10-man or an aggressive 10-man? Will everybody try to trap you in the midfield hoping to get a call? Will they play half-man, half-zone? I don’t think until we get into games that we will appreciate how this is all going to go down.”

Danowski mused about the impact on different positions. Will attackmen become somewhat less important? Will save percentages go up for goalies?

The reality is Duke is better-equipped to handle considerable change than most. There’s talent, sure. There’s also Danowski’s fervent emphasis on fundamentals, something that historically has led to Duke being one of the steadiest teams in the country over the last decade.

The Blue Devils also bring back a First Team All-America picks in defenseman Cade Van Raaphorst. Having an offensive player of All-American Brad Smith’s caliber would have been another obvious asset, but the team announced Thursday that he'll be out "indefinitely" with a foot injury.

Yes, Guterding is gone. And yes, the rules are different. Still, Duke is a team with eight of its top 10 scorers back and two standout defensemen to help protect a new starting goalie. It’s a mystery how everything will unfold this spring, but chances are good the Blue Devils will be in the national title conversation well into May.

The Case For Duke

Well, the Blue Devils have been all the way to the final day of the season, and there’s multiple starters back on attack, in the midfield and on close defense. The faceoff tandem of Brian Smyth and Joe Stein returns. Long pole Peter Welch is back. Duke doesn’t have all the answers, but it has a lot of them, even if Danowski isn’t keen on leaning on last spring’s run as a harbinger for anything. “It seems to me it’s just business as usual,” Danowski said. “We’re just showing up every day and it’s a new year. With all the excitement a new year brings, we never talk about last year and never talk about the last game.”

The Case Against Duke

Guterding’s statistical footprint (66 goals, 47 assists) was considerable, but it’s even more difficult to measure --- and replace --- his role as the emotional center of a hungry Blue Devils team. Still, Duke finds a way to score every year. The most obvious hole without an immediate answer is in the cage, where Tanner Uppgren (9.19 goals-against average, .414 save percentage) logged 111 minutes of work last year and split time early in the season with the graduated Danny Fowler. Could another timeshare be in the works for early in the season? “We’re not averse to that,” Danowski said.

Path to the Playoffs

The Blue Devils have reached the NCAA tournament 12 times in as many seasons under Danowski, and there’s no reason to think that streak will be in any peril this spring. Duke’s nonconference schedule includes both Denver and Loyola (as well as Marquette, Richmond and Towson), and a minimum of five games against ACC opponents means there will be no shortage of chances for quality victories. After returning to Memorial Day weekend after a three-year hiatus last May, the Blue Devils are well-equipped to make it to Philadelphia this season.

Players To Watch

Joe Robertson, A, So.
48 G, .432 SH%

Robertson had the luxury of sliding into a starting role while Justin Guterding commanded attention all of last season. He’ll be closer to the top of the scouting report in his second season, though the numbers are likely to be good --- they always are for Duke’s best finishers.

Brad Smith, M, Sr.
29 G, 36 A

There’s a case to be made that Smith was the Blue Devils’ most valuable player last season simply because of how well he connected the offense. Could he end up seeing some time on attack this season? It’s possible the returning First Team All-America pick does that, all pending his return from the foot injury.

Cade Van Raaphorst, D, Sr.
43 GB, 23 CT

Van Raaphorst and junior JT Giles-Harris (22 caused turnovers) are the backbone of a defense that figures to be a strength for Duke even as it searches for its latest starting goalie. Van Raaphorst is likely to again draw opponents’ top scoring options this season.

National Rankings

Power Ratings (Scale of 1-5)

Offense
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Defense
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Goalkeeping
⭐⭐⭐

Faceoff
⭐⭐⭐

8

Midfielder Nakeie Montgomery scored eight of his 14 goals as a freshman in the NCAA tournament. He’s likely to play a larger role over the full season in his second year as a Blue Devil.

5-Year Trend
Shooting Percentage

Coach Confidential
John Danowski

“Do we have a superior lacrosse IQ, where we can handle clearing the ball, the deep ride or a 10-man ride? Can we adapt from man to zone? Can we become a good zone offensive team? Can we be multiple in our approach? Can we handle the complex? I think the game is going to be more complicated. There’s more things to coach than there was last year.”

Enemy Lines

"The machine. Superstars graduate. Insert new superstar. What a system, what a culture they’ve created. It’s something the rest of us could benefit from emulating."

"They probably have the most back. We’ll see. New goalie, I guess. My question is did they lose their heart and soul with Guterding. He turned the switch from being not just a great player, but he carried that team momentum-wise from an emotional standpoint and a physical standpoint. But they have a lot back."