NCAA Bracketology: Parsing Reality from Parity

In a year when everyone is beating someone else who lost to somebody else, chaos ensues. The first two months of the regular season have produced a myriad of results, and thus a very muddy picture.

This year’s selection committee will have its hands overflowing with data points, random results and maybe even an eye test or two thrown in. Let’s dive into it by asking some questions.

Does non-conference success matter in the macro-sense?

Three leagues have lifted and separated by a wide margin — the ACC, Big Ten and Ivy League — and it’s not particularly close. Before factoring in Wednesday night results, the Big Ten led the way at 47-12 (.797) followed closely by the ACC 52-15 (.776) and Ivy League at 41-13 (.759).

While the committee will concentrate on individual profiles, teams in those leagues show the strength in a totality that won’t be missed by regional committees nor the national committee. There’s a reason why 15 of the 29 teams in this week’s edition hail from those conferences. Moreover, another three are among our first six out.

What wins out when there’s this much parity?

Figuring out exactly how the selection committee will comprise its field, let alone seed it, is unique to each season. Sometimes who you beat matters a lot, sometimes what your rating is matters more. This will likely be a year where the RPI will be used more to separate the top teams, and the wins and losses among bubble teams will be dissected more.

Case in point — Maryland is No. 1 in the RPI and Syracuse is No. 2. Maryland has four wins against top 20 teams and beat Syracuse but lost to Florida and Penn. Syracuse, meanwhile, has three losses, but has four wins against top 20 teams. Penn (RPI No. 5) makes a case for the No. 1 slot, but its loss last night to Princeton hurts, and the Quakers have just three wins against the top 20.

Many of the decisions in seeding will look like the above scenario. That is why you’ll see one-loss teams like Michigan and Loyola slip to fifth and sixth, respectively.

Is Penn’s profile better than Northwestern’s?

In a brief description – yes. For now.

The Quakers own wins over Maryland and Johns Hopkins, along with another likely tournament team in Drexel. Northwestern also has a win against Hopkins to go along with victories over Syracuse, Denver, Boston College and North Carolina.

Northwestern has more top 20 wins (5), but arguably its losses are worse than Penn’s. The Wildcats lost to Notre Dame (RPI No. 12) and Penn State (RPI No. 23), whereas Penn has lost to Michigan (RPI No. 7) and Princeton (RPI No. 14).

Northwestern has more chances to move up than Penn does with games against Michigan and Maryland ahead.

The at-large field is wide open, right?

Despite all this parity, the at-large field is close to being set because many of the strong teams are beating up on each other, thus building their own profiles. Few teams along the bubble are punching up to make a case.

Of the 14 at-large bids, 10 can be considered locks — Penn, Northwestern, Michigan, Johns Hopkins, Virginia, Notre Dame, Princeton, Boston College, North Carolina and Florida. Those teams, barring something really ugly, are going to be in this year’s tournament.

Another team, Drexel, is almost certainly in if they avoid a bad loss in CAA play. The Dragons have a solid RPI (19th), a win over Penn State and no major blemishes on their resume.

That leaves around 13 teams vying for those final three true bubble spots, and some of those already have season-defining victories (Duke over Virginia, Penn State over Northwestern).

In the case of Penn State, other at-large teams should hope the Nittany Lions (7-5 overall) don’t make the .500 threshold (remaining games against Maryland, Johns Hopkins, Michigan and the Big Ten tournament), which would open another at-large opportunity.

Can Fairfield nab a seed?

One team really sticks out in the RPI — Fairfield. The Stags are 9-1 overall and rated fourth with a strength of schedule of 48. They have wins over UConn, Albany, Hofstra and Drexel. If Fairfield were to stumble in MAAC play, there’s a chance of getting in as an at-large, which usually isn’t the case for a MAAC team.

Fairfield’s only loss was by a goal on opening day to Holy Cross (a surprising 24th in the RPI) and the MAAC’s decent with teams like Siena and Niagara placing in the RPI top 45. Nevertheless, without a sympathetic committee, the Stags shouldn’t expect a seed.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Wednesday, April 3), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2024 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Maryland has the strongest case to be the overall No. 1 seed – wins over Syracuse, Michigan, Denver, JMU and Drexel overshadow losses to Florida and Penn … Syracuse has played the toughest schedule to date and with is has scored five wins against the RPI top 30 … Fairfield has won nine straight and doesn’t appear to be challenged yet in the MAAC.

Yale appears poised to finally break into the 29-team field after some near misses. The Elis lead the Ivy League at its midpoint … Loyola’s loss at Syracuse hurts in terms of seeding; the Greyhounds could’ve had a case for one of the top three seeds … Stanford might have to rely on winning the Pac-12, as it has missed chances for profile-building wins in non-conference play.

Denver scraped by a game Georgetown team last week and took out local rival Colorado to all but ensure its place in the field of 29 even without the auto bid thanks to non-conference wins over Stanford and Stony Brook …JMU is slightly ahead of rival Florida for the AAC slot this week based on RPI alone. The two teams meet next Saturday, April 13 … Stony Brook is one RPI slot ahead of Drexel for the CAA.

Richmond leads a weak Atlantic 10, which is a one-bid league this year … Albany is back in first in the America East after defeating Bryant last Saturday … Coastal Carolina has won four straight and six of seven to reach first in the Atlantic Sun.

Mercer is the top team in the Big South with a quick 3-0 start to league play … Sacred Heart leads the NEC after four straight conference wins … Welcome to the bracket, Eastern Michigan. The second-year Eagles (5-5, 2-0 MAC) have already doubled their conference win total from last season.

AT LARGE  (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Johns Hopkins has the fifth-toughest schedule with solid wins over JMU, Stony Brook, Duke and USC … Penn fell out of first in the Ivy League after its loss to Princeton, but the wins over Maryland and Hopkins carry lots of weight … Northwestern has five wins over teams in the RPI top 20, but the loss to Penn State prevents the Wildcats from a legitimate top spot argument.

Michigan fell six spots in the RPI after its loss to Maryland, but wins over Penn and Denver bolster the profile … Virginia dropped to 10th in the RPI to hang onto a seeding spot by a thread. Four wins against teams rated 11th-16th in the RPI helps … Notre Dame is on the doorstep of hosting with wins over Northwestern, BC and North Carolina. It would not be a surprise to see the Fighting Irish among the top 8 next month.

Princeton pretty much locked up its place in the field of 29 with a win over rival Penn … Boston College is playing the toughest part of its schedule and will continue to rise in the RPI, now 15th, after being in the 20s for much of March … North Carolina has fended off injuries and competed well. The Tar Heels might not factor into the seeding discussions for the first time in a while.

Florida’s win at Maryland is its crown jewel along with a win over Princeton … USC has a victory over Temple, but not much else. Pac-12 play will be pivotal … Brown’s loss to Harvard will hamper its at-large prospects, but a win this week over Dartmouth would help.

Penn State would not be in the field without its upset victory over Northwestern. The Nittany Lions have won five of six but might rue its loss to Ohio State … Holy Cross is here by virtue of its high RPI (24th) and a season-opening win over Fairfield. The Crusaders could bolster their profile by beating Navy or Loyola … Dartmouth is another bubble team who has competed well, with a win over USC. The game against Brown might prove to be a bubble decider.

Clemson has a great opportunity against BC on Sunday – a win would propel the Tigers into the at-large discussion … Temple is without a highlight victory thus far … Rutgers is at .500 and needs an upset victory at some point … Duke’s win at Virginia gets the Devils into the conversation … Harvard’s wins at Brown and against Dartmouth keeps the Crimson’s hopes alive … Colorado won at Penn State in March, but needs a strong showing in Pac-12 play after missing at Denver last night … Navy’s loss to Saint Joseph’s might eliminate the Midshipmen from the at-large discussion.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

College Park, Md.

North Carolina vs. Fairfield (MAAC)
Winner plays at (1) Maryland (BIG TEN)

Charlottesville, Va.

Richmond (A-10) at (8) Virginia
Princeton vs. Duke

Evanston, Ill.

Eastern Michigan (MAC) at (4) Northwestern
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Coastal Carolina (ASUN) at (5) Michigan
Notre Dame vs. Stanford (PAC-12)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Florida vs. Dartmouth
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse (ACC)

Baltimore, Md.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (7) Johns Hopkins
Yale (IVY) vs. Penn State

Philadelphia, Pa.

Stony Brook (CAA) vs. James Madison (AAC)
Winner plays at (3) Penn

Baltimore, Md.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (6) Loyola (PATRIOT)
Boston College vs. Drexel

Last Four In: Drexel, Penn State, Duke, Dartmouth
First Four Out: USC, Holy Cross, Brown, Colorado
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (4), AAC (2), CAA (2)