NCAA Bracketology: The Ivy League Bubble

A week of high profile, top-ranked matchups coupled with one league’s strong showing in non-conference play has set up an interesting situation on the bubble.

When nearly an entire league has a chance at a NCAA berth

The Ivy League has legitimately seven of its eight members in spots to earn berths to the NCAA tournament this year. Those seven teams all sit at 28th or better in the RPI. This week, we include four teams (Princeton, Penn, Yale and Brown), but another three (Harvard, Dartmouth and Cornell) sit among the first six out.

Teams looking to end tourney droughts

With it seemingly more likely that the CAA, Big East and Atlantic 10 could be one-bid leagues, and that their standard bearers more apt to miss in an at-large situation than not, it creates an enlarged bubble.

And with that brings some new blood. Clemson and Brown are searching for their first-ever appearances in the NCAA tournament, while Harvard seeks its first berth since 1994. Two other teams on the outside looking in, Ohio State (2015) and Cornell (2019), are also looking to end tourney droughts.

Florida joins the seeded ranks

Florida’s win over Clemson makes it four in a row, while James Madison fell to Virginia. Despite JMU’s win over the Gators, there was an even exchange between those teams among the seeded and unseeded. The Gators are now projected as the No. 7 seed, while James Madison is the second team left out of the seeded group. Virginia is on the doorstep, just behind No. 8 Maryland, but there is a case to flip the two.

ACC dominates the seeds

The top three remain the same, with Boston College and North Carolina at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. Syracuse and Stanford occupy the Nos. 5 and 6 spots, respectively, while Virginia lurks just behind Maryland.

Air miles check-in

While last week we projected just two flights needed to fill out the field, this week has five. Stanford and Florida are the geographical outliers set to host. USC can bus to Stanford, but all other opponents in the two pods will have to fly.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, March 23), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Boston College tackled the tough cross-country test to Stanford and moved up to the No. 1 RPI team … Johns Hopkins has the superior RPI to Northwestern to earn the Big Ten’s auto bid for now. The Blue Jays have a big test at JMU tomorrow … Florida is racking up the air miles this week — a mid-week jaunt north to Philadelphia to play Penn and then off to UC Davis for its inaugural Big 12 game just 56 hours later.

Princeton keeps cruising, but its next two games against Yale and Stony Brook will say a lot about where this team is in the national picture … James Madison hosts Johns Hopkins in what could be its last best chance to impress the selection committee — the rest of the games it’ll be favored to win by a lot … Loyola is once again 13th in the RPI ahead of its rivalry matchup vs. Navy on Thursday.

Stony Brook bounced back from its loss at Colorado to tamp down Delaware on the road. The Seawolves have lost three games by just a goal apiece … UMass hasn’t had any issues in A-10 play thus far winning its four games by an average of 9.25 goals … Denver slipped mightily in the RPI down to 32nd. The Pioneers are looking more likely to rely on that auto bid than in years past.

Liberty remains the ASUN’s representative with an RPI of 35. Road games at Queens and Louisville await the Flames … High Point is the Big South team this week, jumping 22 spots after beating Virginia Tech this weekend … UMBC is 2-0 in America East play with the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the nation (16.10 gpg).

Mount St. Mary’s remains the MAAC representative at RPI No. 61 … Detroit Mercy seeks its first NCAA tournament bid from a wide open Mid-American Conference … LIU leads the lowly-rated NEC at No. 101.