NCAA Bracketology: The Final Division I Women's Bracket Projection

Selection Sunday is here, and like death and taxes, there’s another certainly to be expected: no one will be happy about the seeding.

With so many tournament-bound teams idle this weekend and most of the favorites winning along the way, we saw some drops in the numbers to those teams that did not play.

A week ago, it seemed almost certain that Maryland, Michigan, Virginia and Notre Dame would be hosts. Now, there’s a possible scenario in which two of those squads will be traveling — if the NCAA selection committee stays true to the RPI.

Virginia and Notre Dame will give the committee a lot to talk about. UVA is 10th in the RPI and Notre Dame is 11th. Both teams have bona fide wins — Notre Dame over Northwestern and Boston College; Virginia over BC. The low RPI will give the committee pause because that’s the ranking used in initial debates.

Cases can be made for both teams to jump Stony Brook (7th), but finding ways to argue the Cavaliers or the Irish past Maryland (6th), Loyola (8th) or Michigan (9th) become difficult.

Nevertheless, we project the top 6 in the RPI to remain (Northwestern, BC, Yale, Syracuse, Penn, Maryland) and Notre Dame and Virginia to leapfrog Stony Brook, Michigan and Loyola.

THE LAST THREE SPOTS

None of the bubble teams made a compelling case down the stretch, and until 2:15 p.m. Eastern, no bid thieves emerged. Then, Niagara bounced Fairfield. And Richmond took out UMass.

With the thought that 11 at-large spots are taken, who gets the final three bids? Let’s break it down.

Fairfield (RPI 16, SOS 59)

Case for: Beat Drexel (RPI 20), went 16-2
Case against: Extremely low SOS, a loss to a non-tournament team (Holy Cross)
Verdict: In

Drexel (RPI 20, SOS 29)

Case for: Beat Penn State (RPI 22) and Navy (RPI 22), no significant losses
Case against: Few wins over tournament teams
Verdict: In

Brown (RPI 23, SOS 31)

Case for: High RPI, beat two teams that almost made the tournament
Case against: Lost to Harvard, which is likely to miss the tournament
Verdict: Out

Navy (RPI 22, SOS 43)

Case for: Three wins against Holy Cross and Duke, a fourth over Richmond
Case against: Lost to Saint Joseph’s (RPI 40), low SOS, went 0-3 against RPI top 20
Verdict: Out, but barely. Won’t be a shocked if included

Colorado (RPI 24, SOS 27)

Case for: Won at Penn State (RPI 21), no significant losses
Case against: 0-5 against RPI top 20
Verdict: In, but possibly as the last team in the field

Clemson (RPI 27, SOS 24)

Case for: Beat fellow bubble dweller Duke
Case against: 0-6 against top 20 teams, a significant loss to Louisville (RPI 45)
Verdict: Out

USC (RPI 28, SOS 43)

Case for: Finished second in the Pac-12, beat Colorado (RPI 24), no significant losses
Case against: Low RPI, 0-3 vs. RPI top 20, only significant win (Colorado) came as a split series
Verdict: Out

Harvard (RPI 29, SOS 39)

Case for: Beat Brown, finished fourth in tough Ivy League
Case against: Lost to Duke, 0-4 against RPI top 20 teams
Verdict: Out

Duke (RPI 31, SOS 12)

Case for: Beat Virginia and Harvard, strong SOS
Case against: Lost eight games (most in blowout fashion), low RPI, lost to fellow bubble teams Navy and Clemson
Verdict: Out

Final point: the committee will likely be able to lean on this — every team they include will have beaten another NCAA team this year. That will likely leave USC and Duke, the two lowest bubble teams to have wins over NCAA-caliber squads, out of the 29-team field.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to Lacrosse Reference as of Sunday, May 5), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2024 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern fell behind early and held on late to capture the Big Ten title and solidify the overall No. 1 seed … Boston College is set as the No. 2 seed … Yale pulled off a great comeback to gain a second win over Penn and the Ivy League title. The RPI jumped to fourth and the Bulldogs could be in line for a top 3 seed.

Stony Brook kept Drexel at bay to defend its CAA title, the Seawolves are projected as the first team not to get a seed in our bracket … Loyola likely kept the Patriot a one-bid league by downing rival Navy in overtime. The RPI has risen, but is it enough to garner a seed? … Stanford capped off a perfect Pac-12 slate to avoid the committee having to look at it as an at-large candidate.

Denver blew a huge lead and struck back to win the Big East title over UConn, which would have made the Big East a two-bid league, the Pios will be flying somewhere … Florida crushed James Madison in its final game as a member of The American, but the Gators don’t have a strong enough profile to earn a seed … Niagara shocked Fairfield to make the NCAA tournament. The Purple Eagles will be a tough out in the first round. There’s only one place they can bus to: Syracuse. 

Coastal Carolina knocked off Jacksonville for its first conference title and first NCAA tournament bid. The Chanticleers are too far from any potential host sites and will be flying … Richmond raced ahead of UMass, fell behind and made a big comeback to beat UMass for the A-10 title, while snapping the Minutewomen’s long winning streak … Mercer left no doubt in winning the Big South. The Bears will be flying somewhere as well.

Binghamton, like another green-clad team did in 2022 (Vermont), went to Albany and won 12-11 in the America East final to claim its first NCAA tournament bid … The LIU Sharks went wire-to-wire to down Sacred Heart for the NEC title and their first NCAA tournament appearance. LIU is riding a 10-game winning streak … Robert Morris won its second MAC title by beating Detroit Mercy. The Colonials will certainly be team No. 29 in this year’s field.

AT LARGE  (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse will be eager to see where it gets placed. All the ACC teams saw their RPI numbers drop this week except BC. The Orange might fall to No. 4. … Penn will be seeded tonight, it’s just a matter of where. For now, we have the Quakers at No. 5 …  Maryland and Michigan have also seen their RPI drop this weekend while sitting idly. The Terps seem near-locks to host, but are the Wolverines?

Virginia and Notre Dame have fallen out of the single digits in the RPI. Will the committee bump them up and let them host? … Johns Hopkins will return to the dance for the first time under Tim McCormack, and they might be able to spring an upset along the way … Fairfield was unable to overcome an early deficit to Niagara and saw its 16-game winning streak snapped. The Stags are hoping they snag one of the at-large bids, they have a strong enough profile for it.

Princeton will be a flexible team for the committee to place as they can drive to all but a couple of hosting spots, going to Boston College seems to make sense … North Carolina will also be traveling for the first time in a while … When all the numbers shake out, James Madison is much closer to the bubble than many realized. The Dukes carded just one win against a team in this year’s field (UNC).

Drexel is a bubble team that will sweat it out on Sunday night, but seems reasonable to be included … Penn State has three wins over teams in the RPI top 10 and took Northwestern to the wire Saturday night. The Nittany Lions will be a tough out for anyone … Navy’s expected exclusion from this year’s field will feel particularly heartbreaking, as they were so close to winning the Patriot League final, but a loss to Saint Joseph’s and other missed opportunities don’t create a stout at-large profile.

Brown’s fate was sealed on Sunday by three results: Binghamton over Albany, Richmond over UMass and Niagara over Fairfield — the first two excluded the Bears from having wins over NCAA teams, the last took a likely at-large spot … Colorado will also be sweating it out on Sunday. The Buffaloes finally got past USC to reach the Pac-12 final, but are their numbers (RPI 24, SOS 27) and a win at Penn State good enough? … UMass had to win the A-10 final to make the tournament, the Minutewomen have no significant victories.

Clemson will be on the wrong side of the bubble tonight … USC at RPI No. 27 and no significant victories also seems destined to miss out on the NCAA tournament … Harvard went 0-4 against RPI top 20 competition and didn’t beat an NCAA tournament team this year … Duke’s RPI is far too low, along with losses to fellow bubble teams.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

North Carolina vs. Stanford (PAC-12)
(1) Northwestern (BIG TEN) plays winner

Charlottesville, Va.

(8) Virginia vs. Richmond (ATLANTIC 10)
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Colorado

Syracuse, N.Y.

(4) Syracuse vs. Robert Morris (MAC)
Johns Hopkins vs. Niagara (MAAC)

Philadelphia, Pa.

(5) Penn vs. Binghamton (AMERICA EAST)
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Drexel

Newton, Mass.

Princeton vs. Fairfield
(2) Boston College (ACC) plays winner

Notre Dame, Ind.

(7) Notre Dame vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)
Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina (ASUN)

New Haven, Conn.

Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Penn State
(3) Yale (IVY) plays winner

College Park, Md.

(6) Maryland vs. LIU (NEC)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. James Madison

Last Four In: James Madison, Fairfield, Drexel, Colorado
First Four Out: Navy, Brown, Duke, USC
Moving In: Binghamton, Coastal Carolina, LIU, Niagara, Richmond
Moving Out: Albany, Brown, Jacksonville, Sacred Heart, UMass
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (3), AAC (2), CAA (2), MAAC (2), Pac-12 (2)