NCAA Bracketology: An Enormous Bubble Awaits the Committee

March is over, and the stretch run to May Madness begins in earnest. At the top of the heap, 10 teams have legitimate profiles to be seeded. 

Down below is an enormous bubble featuring 14 teams for seven spots, while some perennial tournament shoe-ins will be relying on automatic bids this year.

BC, North Carolina settle top seeds

Boston College and North Carolina square off in the biggest game of the regular season with the winner assuring itself the No. 1 seed. Northwestern’s RPI rose to sixth and remains our No. 3 seed, while Florida saw a jump up to No. 4. Johns Hopkins remains among the top five as well.

Second-tier ACC teams vs. top-tier Ivy League teams for final seeds

Where the seeded discussion gets lively is for the bottom three seeded spots. What it will come down to are three second-tier ACC squads (Stanford, Syracuse and Virginia) and two top-tier Ivy League squads (Princeton, Penn). The profiles are very close, but the edges go to the ACC squads, especially with Virginia’s win over Princeton.

Princeton being left out as a one-loss non-seeded team seems harsh until you see that its best wins are Loyola (which has five losses), Harvard (a bubble team), and Yale (which is 0-3 against top-20 teams). Compare that to Syracuse, which beat both Stanford, Virginia and Loyola, or Stanford, which beat Virginia and Yale (just like Princeton). Lastly, Princeton has the lowest strength-of-schedule (12th) of the teams under consideration.

Penn is also just a notch below in this discussion. A highlight is its 3-2 record against top-20 foes after Monday’s win against Maryland.

The 14-team race for at-large bids

Two things are happening at once in this year’s selection process: loads of teams from the Big Ten, ACC, Ivy League and Patriot League are filling in the at-large pool and some perennial heavyweights who dot the top 20 aren’t doing their part (Stony Brook, Denver, and even UMass to a lesser extent).

Those three teams mentioned would be unlikely to make this year’s tournament without the automatic bid, as there isn’t a top-30 win among the three (yes, you read that right). 

Nevertheless, there’s a clear dividing line between teams like James Madison and Maryland, which are nearly locked into this field (around the 13 spot in the S-Curve) and a big group that spans another 14 spots with just seven at-large bids available.

This includes teams like Brown, Yale and Duke that are safer than Michigan, Clemson, Harvard and Navy (our final four in). All those teams feature wins against teams in this week’s field, while the next batch of teams that aren’t in the field have a mixture of significant wins, wins against fellow bubble teams or a low RPI.

Take USC, for example, which has the No. 23 RPI, beat Colorado (now eligible with a .500 record), Ohio State and Arizona State — all teams on or near the bubble, but not in the field. USC is our first team out along with Army, which beat Stanford and Rutgers but has an RPI of 31, and Notre Dame (RPI 29, only one significant victory).

This might be a year we see a team in the RPI teens get left out because of a lack of important victories. It also means teams in the high 20s, let alone 30s, are nearly assured to be out.

Fly us in

Every week, we seemingly add more teams in the flight list. With Florida and Stanford as projected host sites and no teams close enough to drive, six teams would have to fly to those respective pods.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Monday, March 31), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Boston College puts its 21-game winning streak on the line at North Carolina with the winner gaining top rank in the nation … Johns Hopkins remains our Big Ten auto bid for now ahead of its biggest game of the year when it hosts Northwestern … Florida has had such an impressive non-conference season with a 5-2 mark against top 25 foes.

Princeton has done nothing wrong, but it’s lacking that key victory to get it into the seeded ranks. With that said, stumbles by the teams ahead of it would allow a move up as well … Loyola beat Navy in a thriller to keep first place in the Patriot … James Madison will look to win back-to-back games for the first time since March 1 when it heads to Georgetown next week.

Stony Brook continues to top the CAA, for which it won’t be tested until April 18 against Drexel … UMass is coasting through the Atlantic 10, but its next two games might give the Minutewomen trouble: home vs. Richmond and at Davidson … Denver having an RPI of 36 is one thing, that being the best in the Big East is another.

Liberty is holding serve in the ASUN but steps away this week to play Louisville and USF … High Point is back again as the Big South representative … UMBC is up to 3-0 in the America East after a one-goal win over Binghamton.

Detroit Mercy is up to No. 57 in the MAC, which is dozens ahead of its predecessors … The MAAC carousel has Fairfield this week, as the Stags are a spot higher than Mount St. Mary’s in the RPI … Wagner is the NEC representative because first-place Stonehill is ineligible for the NCAA tournament due to reclassifying.