NCAA Bracketology: Chaos Calms, Field Nearly Set

Conference championship weekend is finally here, when 14 automatic qualifiers will be determined in the next 24-plus hours. So, in a season of chaos, will we have more ahead of us?

By now, 99 percent of the data is in. All that remains are the automatic bids and the final discussions over at-large teams, which has been raging all season.

Ultimately, the committee leans on a full body of work, which includes RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), significant wins, head-to-head matchups, records against common opponents and significant losses.

There will be decisions to be made toward the bottom half of the seed line, and one or two big decisions to be made on the bubble. Nevertheless, let’s look at the conference championship games ahead and what the implications of those matchups are.

America East: Albany vs. Binghamton

What’s on the line: A rematch of last season’s title game. Neither team is getting in on their own merit, so this is a one-bid league scenario.

American Athletic: James Madison vs. Florida

What’s on the line: Last year, this game had major implications in seeding and hosting. This year, just Florida has an outside shot of seeding. JMU is closer to the bubble but should be perfectly safe due to a win over North Carolina earlier this season.

Atlantic 10: UMass vs. Richmond

What’s on the line: No bid thief here. Yet another rematch. This time around, however, there’s no safety net for either team.

Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville vs. Coastal Carolina

What’s on the line: Jacksonville looks to maintain its stranglehold on the ASUN, while Coastal Carolina will try to continue its best season. Either way, it’s a one-bid league, and unless Florida gets a surprise hosting bid, the champion will be flying for its first-round game.

Big East: Denver vs. UConn

What’s on the line: We meet our first bid thief scenario. A UConn win would certainly take an at-large spot off the board, as Denver is solidly in the field. The bubble teams are rooting for the Pioneers.

Big South: Mercer vs. High Point

What’s on the line: In this one-bid league, a placement scenario ensues. If Mercer wins, it’s flying (unless Florida gets to host), and if High Point wins, they’re likely driving to Virginia or Maryland.

Big Ten: Northwestern vs. Penn State

What’s on the line: Northwestern’s No. 1 seed. The Wildcats almost had its run to the title game spoiled by Johns Hopkins, and now it faces one of the two teams it lost to this season. For Penn State, the Nittany Lions are seemingly assured a spot in the field, but there might be some anxiety in Happy Valley without the AQ.

CAA: Stony Brook vs. Drexel

What’s on the line: Confirming Drexel’s spot in the field. The Dragons have just one signature win (Penn State), and gathering the CAA’s automatic bid would relieve stress levels on Sunday night. For Stony Brook, a seeding opportunity seems unlikely, but if there is one, a win is mandatory.

Ivy League: Penn vs. Yale

What’s on the line: Hosting rights. For Penn, those seem confirmed with an RPI of 4 and an SOS of 13. For Yale, the RPI rose to 5, but a loss would certainly drop it. If the Elis can get two wins over Penn on their resume, it seems like they’ll host.

MAAC: Fairfield vs. Niagara

What’s on the line: Fairfield’s wonderful season. The Stags (16-1) have been excellent, and with an RPI of 13, there’s a solid chance they remain in the field even with a loss to Niagara. This is a bid thief scenario, and a headache that the selection committee would rather not deal with.

MAC: Robert Morris vs. Detroit Mercy

What’s on the line: The bus ride to Ann Arbor. The MAC’s champion seems destined to play Michigan at Michigan. There is a small chance it could go to Notre Dame (or Northwestern in the case of UDM); you never know what the committee might decide with placement.

NEC: Sacred Heart vs. LIU

What’s on the line: The AQ and a bus ride to either Penn, Yale or Maryland.

Patriot: Loyola vs. Navy

What’s on the line: A massive tilt in which Loyola is fighting for a top eight seed and Navy is fighting for its season. Loyola still might not get that hosting right, but Navy would steal an at-large bid from someone else.

Pac-12: Stanford vs. Colorado

What’s on the line: Possibly the Pac-12’s last bid to the NCAA tournament. Whoever wins is obviously in, but whoever loses is squarely on the bubble as one of the final couple of teams in or out.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Friday, May 3), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2024 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

* = automatic qualifier already secured

Northwestern is the overwhelming favorite to get the No. 1 seed, but can that still happen if it suffers a second loss to Penn State? … Boston College seems locked into the No. 2 seed … As we said last week, Yale will get a good crack at hosting should it win the Ivy League tournament.

Loyola is doing everything it can to impress the committee and get a hosting bid; shutting out Lehigh in a conference semifinal game is impressive, but it’s probably not enough … Stony Brook needs to fend off Drexel in the CAA final for a shot at a seed … Fairfield can cap its perfect MAAC season and go into the NCAA tournament with a 17-game winning streak should it beat Niagara.

Denver will also try to finish off an unbeaten run against conference opponents in the Big East final against UConn … Stanford is a curious case should the Cardinal fall in the Pac-12 final — no wins over teams in the RPI top 20.  … Florida and JMU meet for the last time as conference foes in The American final.

UMass is another squad that is on a long winning streak entering its championship game when it plays Richmond in Pittsburgh … Albany will try to hoist the America East trophy once again on its home field when it welcomes Binghamton … Mercer is another No. 1 seed that will try to hold serve when it hosts High Point in the Big South final.

Jacksonville squeezed past Liberty and faces a tough Coastal Carolina squad in the ASUN final … Sacred Heart and LIU meet as the top two teams in the NEC … Robert Morris or Detroit Mercy will secure a first bid to the NCAA tournament this weekend.

AT LARGE  (21 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse awaits its seeding spot, which looks like No. 3 as of now … Penn can make a serious case for the No. 3 seed should it knock off Yale in the Ivy final … Maryland and Michigan remain in the bottom half of the seeding discussion.

Johns Hopkins nearly snagged a season-defining victory at Northwestern, which would have granted a hosting spot. The Blue Jays are likely on the road now … The same discussion about Virginia and Notre Dame remains. Both are likely hosts, but could one get knocked out by Yale or Loyola depending on how the numbers shake out?

Princeton is is in the middle of the field and awaits where it’s going to travel … North Carolina will also be traveling. The Tar Heels might be one of the teams who could fly somewhere, just like James Madison. Both are middle of the pack, and there’s a solid chance that three Midwestern teams host.

Drexel would love to take all questions off the board and have that CAA automatic bid … From 2-4 to the Big Ten final, the Penn State rollercoaster season has been entertaining if not a little bit stressful … Brown is the biggest question mark for the committee. The Bears didn’t reach the Ivy League tournament, but their numbers are good — they’re cheering for UMass and Albany, teams they beat in the regular season … Navy almost assuredly needs to win the Patriot League final, as the Mids have no wins above 30th in the RPI.

Clemson will be on the wrong side of the bubble on Sunday … USC dropped to 27th in the RPI after its loss to Colorado. The Women of Troy needed a sweep of the Buffs to feel good about their at-large chances … Niagara enters on the periphery of the at-large discussion. The Purple Eagles are now 28th in the RPI with their best win over No. 33 RPI Siena. But a loss to those Saints and to No. 46 Arizona State will be too much to overcome without an upset of Fairfield.

Yes, Harvard beat Brown and made the Ivy League tournament. But Harvard’s RPI (29th) and SOS (36th) are lower than the Bears (and others ahead of it), while also losing to team No. 31 in the RPI — Duke. The Blue Devils’ case will hinge on the value of their lone signature win (Virginia) versus several lopsided losses and less than stellar objective numbers, chances are both miss out … Holy Cross’ promising season sputtered down the stretch. The No. 30 RPI team shouldn’t expect to make the field of 29.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

North Carolina vs. Stanford (PAC-12)
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Notre Dame, Ind.

Jacksonville (ASUN) at (8) Notre Dame
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)

Philadelphia, Pa.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (4) Penn
Johns Hopkins vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

College Park, Md.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (5) Maryland
Yale (IVY) vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Newton, Mass.

Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Brown
Winner plays at (2) Boston College (ACC)

Charlottesville, Va.

Drexel at (7) Virginia
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. James Madison

Syracuse, N.Y.

Princeton vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (3) Syracuse

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (6) Michigan
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Colorado

Last Four In: James Madison, Drexel, Colorado, Brown
First Four Out: Navy, Duke, USC, Harvard
Moving In: Colorado, Robert Morris
Moving Out: USC, Central Michigan
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (4), AAC (2), CAA (2), Pac-12 (2)