NCAA Bracketology: The Big Three Lead the Way

Welcome to the opening salvo of bracketology. 

We are only 47 days from Selection Sunday, and plenty of games remain to be played. Let’s dive in on some notes and how we got to the first projected bracket.

Two unbeatens, Northwestern and then everyone else

Three teams have lifted and separated: Boston College, North Carolina and Northwestern. The opening RPI report has North Carolina No. 1, Boston College No. 2 and Northwestern No. 15. We’ll use some common sense and plug the Wildcats at No. 3.

It is so early the data isn’t the end-all be-all yet

Some leagues haven’t even commenced conference play yet. Take the RPI and the SOS with an entire salt shaker. Is Northwestern really the 15th-best team in the nation? No. But you’ll be surprised to see that some teams that have had impressive wins are lower than you’d expect.

Take Clemson, for example. The Tigers have a signature win over Syracuse, but the Tigers check in at No. 27 due to a stunning loss at Mercer and another to perennial bubble team Duke. The same goes for Navy, which beat Virginia, but a loss to Jacksonville has the Mids at No. 30.

Generally, this is a data-driven exercise, but some flexibility must be used this early into the proceeding.

The fight for seeding rights

This might be one of the most open years for those top eight seeds. After the first three seeded spots are spoken for, the remaining five could involve up to 10 teams. Usually there’s a battle of three or four teams just for the last two spots.

Don’t expect many at-large bids outside of the ACC, Big Ten

With conference realignment, the ACC and Big Ten will continue to hoover up at-large bids. Of the 14 at-large spots in this week’s bracket, we have pegged 11 of them to go to teams in those two conferences. That will likely shrink as they begin to play each other more, especially in the Big Ten.

Where to plug Syracuse?

The Orange have shown the ability to beat top teams (Stanford, Maryland), but four losses will drag down their profile. Syracuse has played the second-hardest schedule this season and generally the committee is lenient of “good” losses if the wins are there to offset them.

Buses and planes, oh my

Because of geographic placements and flight rules, there is a competitive imbalance in this week’s bracket. With Stanford being in line as a host and Ohio State’s ability to bus to James Madison, only two flights were needed. 

Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, March 16), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

North Carolina has racked up four wins against top 10 RPI teams and has a case for a top seed … Johns Hopkins has the superior RPI to Northwestern to earn the Big Ten’s auto bid for now. The Blue Jays boast a win over Syracuse … James Madison is the American’s representative with a quality win over Florida. Losses to UNC and Maryland are nothing to worry about.

Princeton, sixth in the RPI, nabs the Ivy spot after Yale’s loss to Stanford drop the Bulldogs down the RPI … Florida will be the inaugural favorite in the Big 12 from start to finish. Aside from stumbles to UNC and JMU, the Gators have amassed signature wins over Maryland-based teams Loyola, Hopkins and Navy … Loyola leads the charge in the Patriot. The Hounds have a standout win over Johns Hopkins with four losses to RPI top 20 teams.

Denver has overcome a slow start with wins over Michigan and Arizona State … Stony Brook missed on some key wins in non-conference play but is still the favorite in the CAA … UMass is looking to leave the Atlantic 10 with one last title.

Liberty has the ASUN bid this week with an RPI of 37 … UMBC checks in as the America East rep at RPI No. 43 … Furman is atop the Big South at No. 50 in the RPI, but Mercer (54th) lurks just behind.

Mount St. Mary’s is the highest-rated MAAC team a year after the league sent two to the NCAA tournament … Akron seeks its first NCAA tournament bid from a wide open Mid-American Conference … Saint Francis leads the NEC at No. 92. All the NEC teams are in the bottom quarter of the ratings.