Bracketology: Women's Bubble in Flux as Selection Sunday Looms

Fourteen automatic bids are to be doled out over a 27-hour span, some with implications to those who aren’t even playing.

While it is likely the NCAA selection committee has a list of 14 at-large teams entering this weekend, results from the championship games could significantly alter what the committee planned to do. The big question: What will the committee value this year? Let’s try and mimic what a potential discussion might be for some of the final at-large bids.

Here’s a blind resume comparison between a set of at-large teams:

• Team A is 14th in the RPI, 51st in SOS, has no significant losses, but no wins against teams currently in the field.

• Team B is 15th in the RPI, 8th in SOS, has no significant losses, but two wins against a bubble team that could be in the field.

• Team D is 26th in the RPI, 49th in SOS, has a win over Team A, but two significant losses to teams with RPIs over 40.

• Team C is 28th in the RPI, 56th in SOS, has no significant losses, but a win against a lock at-large team and a win over a likely automatic qualifier.

If you can only keep three of these teams. Who stays in, and who gets left out? Why?

Ultimately, the committee leans on a full body of work, which includes RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), significant wins, head-to-head matchups, records against common opponents and significant losses. In the above scenario, we compared bubble teams Army, Michigan, Yale and Richmond.

This is a unique season in terms of where teams fall in RPI. Some quality teams are farther down the RPI than usual with potential automatic qualifiers in higher-than-normal RPI positions.

Then there’s the ultimate monkey wrench: bid thieves. So, for that, let’s do a quick rundown of all 14 championship games and their implications:

America East: Albany vs. Binghamton

What’s on the line: Albany’s profile is big on metrics (No. 21 RPI, 34th SOS), thin on major victories, but high on close calls. A loss to Binghamton would assure missing the tournament.

American Athletic: James Madison vs. Florida

What’s on the line: A JMU win solidifies it as one of the top five or six teams in the country. There’s an argument to be made the selection committee should put the Dukes above Denver. On the other hand, a Florida win for sure cements a place in the top eight with hosting rights.

Atlantic 10: UMass vs. Richmond

What’s on the line: Richmond is the final team in our projection, while UMass is solidly in. A Richmond victory assures someone else on the bubble can’t sneak past the Spiders.

ASUN: Liberty vs. Jacksonville

What’s on the line: These two squads sport high RPIs and potential at-large profiles. Jacksonville is the second team out in our projections, but the margins are so thin that it’s possible the committee likes the Dolphins and has them in — even with a loss to Liberty.

Big East: Denver vs. UConn

What’s on the line: Denver wants to keep its perfect record intact and give the committee a real choice to keep them out of the top four. Yes, the SOS is weak (20th), but the Pioneers have beaten everyone on their schedule, including ACC champion Boston College. What more do you want? UConn probably locked up its bid by beating Marquette in the semis.

Big South: Mercer vs. Campbell

What’s on the line: In the one-bid league, all that affects the committee is bracket placement. A Mercer win likely sees the Bears bus to Gainesville, while Campbell could be sent to multiple locations (Chapel Hill, College Park or Harrisonburg).

Big Ten: Northwestern vs. Maryland

What’s on the line: The overall No. 1 seed. Northwestern sews it up with a victory, Maryland could fall out of hosting altogether with a loss.

CAA: Stony Brook vs. Towson

What’s on the line: Stony Brook is in the tournament no matter what, so teams on the bubble are rooting for the Seawolves, while Towson would for sure burst someone’s at-large chances.

Ivy League: Penn vs. Yale

What’s on the line: Yale is desperate for the AQ. Among bubble teams, the Bulldogs are the only ones to have two losses to teams over 40 in the RPI. A Penn victory would give hope to teams like Drexel, Penn State, Richmond and Villanova.

MAAC: Fairfield vs. Siena

What’s on the line: Fairfield’s RPI of 22 is incredible, but a lack of significant wins would likely knock the Stags out of an at-large chance should Siena win. No bid thief here.

MAC: Robert Morris vs. Central Michigan

What’s on the line: If RMU wins, expect a trip to James Madison, while a Central Michigan victory is probably a flight to Denver.

NEC: Sacred Heart vs. Wagner

What’s on the line: A likely flight to Denver, depending on the MAC champion.

Patriot: Loyola vs. Army

What’s on the line: Loyola is a lock, and a possible hosting candidate, while Army would solidify its hold on an at-large bid.

Pac-12: USC vs. Colorado

What’s on the line: A true bubble conundrum should Colorado win. The Women of Troy would be among our first four out if they lose.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LacrosseReference.com, as of Friday, May 6), not human polls. First-place teams and conference tournament No. 1 seeds are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the highest rated team in the RPI is listed as the AQ. For the 2023 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

* = automatic bid clinched

Northwestern Big Ten

Boston College* ACC

Denver Big East

James Madison AAC

Loyola Patriot

Stony Brook CAA

UMass A-10

Penn Ivy

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

USC Pac-12

Liberty ASUN

Mercer Big South

Sacred Heart NEC

Robert Morris MAC

Northwestern will be the No. 1 seed with a win over Maryland … ACC champion Boston College should see its name called early on the seed line Sunday night … Denver has to take on host UConn in the Big East championship game to keep its perfect season alive.

James Madison has now won 17 straight entering the AAC championship game against Florida … Stony Brook looks to cap a perfect inaugural season in the CAA against Towson, which will need the AQ to make the NCAA tournament … Loyola hosts Army in the Patriot League final.

UMass and its 15-game winning streak are on the line against a desperate Richmond squad … Penn will try to dash Yale’s postseason hopes in the Ivy final … Albany takes on upstart Binghamton for the America East crown.

Fairfield will look to be the MAAC representative once again in a title showdown with Siena … USC faces a Colorado team that upended Stanford twice this year. The Trojans won both regular season matchups, 17-13 and 16-13 … Mercer plays host to Campbell in the Big South title matchup.

Liberty and Jacksonville are meeting in a much-anticipated ASUN championship game. The Flames already beat the Dolphins once in Florida and will have to do it a second time to earn an NCAA bid. … Sacred Heart can cap a perfect NEC run if it can get by Wagner … Robert Morris will try to defend home field and lift another MAC trophy against the defending champion Chippewas of Central Michigan.

AT-LARGE (18 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse ACC

North Carolina ACC

Florida AAC

Maryland Big Ten

Notre Dame ACC

UConn Big East

Virginia ACC

Army Patriot

Michigan Big Ten

Marquette Big East

Johns Hopkins Big Ten

Drexel CAA

Villanova Big East

Jacksonville ASUN

Yale Ivy

Richmond A-10

Navy Patriot

Penn State Big Ten

With seven wins over RPI top 20 competition, Syracuse should be the No. 2 seed come Sunday unless Northwestern falls to Maryland … North Carolina could stake claim to the No. 3 seed, but our bet is to be No. 4 behind BC … Florida gets a second crack at JMU in the AAC final.

Maryland springing an upset in the Big Ten final could shake seed lines a decent amount … Notre Dame is on the cut line for hosting duties due to its win over UNC … UConn jolted up to 12th in the RPI after its Big East semifinal win.

Virginia went 1-5 against RPI top 20 competition, but 10-1 against all others … Army should feel good about its position to snag its first-ever NCAA bid regardless of the result against Loyola … Michigan might be sweating Sunday night, as it doesn’t have a win over a team in the RPI top 30.

Johns Hopkins most likely played its way into the field with some important wins late in the season … Marquette suffered just its second loss of the season at UConn in the Big East semifinals, but the Eagles should be dancing come Sunday night … Drexel is firmly on the bubble after a second loss  to Towson in the CAA semifinals …

Villanova’s RPI of 23rd belies its lack of significant wins (Navy is its best at No. 29), while the Mids couldn’t solve Army and are likely out of the NCAA picture … Jacksonville’s steady progression up the RPI might be too little too late without the ASUN AQ.

One must think that Yale needs to beat Penn in the Ivy League title for inclusion in the NCAA tournament … Richmond is back in our projections once again ahead of a monumental A-10 title game clash against UMass … Should Penn State’s RPI remain at No. 32 and the Nittany Lions get selected to the tournament, it would eclipse the highest an at-large team has been rated to do so (No. 31, Louisville, 2017).

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. The top three seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Florida
Notre Dame vs. USC (PAC-12)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Liberty (ASUN) at (4) North Carolina
Virginia vs. Johns Hopkins

Denver, Colo.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (5) Denver (BIG EAST)
UMass (A-10) vs. Penn State

Syracuse, N.Y.

Penn vs. Army
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Maryland
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Newton, Mass.

UConn vs. Drexel
Winner plays at (3) Boston College (ACC)

Harrisonburg, Va.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (6) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Richmond

Last Four In: Michigan, Drexel, Penn State, Richmond
First Four Out: Villanova, Jacksonville, Yale, Navy
Moving In: Richmond
Moving Out: Rutgers
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Big East (3), AAC (2), A-10 (2), CAA (2), Patriot (2)