Bracketology: Top of Women's Seed Line Altered by ACC Tournament

Last weekend, the top two conferences kicked off their postseason tournaments, the results of which will cascade throughout the 29-team field come Selection Sunday.

In the ACC, North Carolina’s elimination of Syracuse and Boston College’s continued hot streak have altered the top of the seed list, while in the Big Ten, an upset and a bubble game have led to higher-than-expected RPIs.

BC soars into top 3, Northwestern perched at No. 1

Boston College and Northwestern are arguably the hottest teams in women’s lacrosse right now. The Eagles capped a 10-game winning streak with an ACC tournament crown. With a 6-3 record against the RPI top 20, including wins over Syracuse and North Carolina, the Eagles check in at No. 3 this week.

Since UNC defeated Syracuse in the ACC semifinals, that paved the way for Northwestern to be the top seed. A No. 1 RPI and an 8-1 record against the RPI top 20 is the best record in the game. The Orange, who have lost two of three, slide into the No. 2 slot still boasting a 7-2 record against the RPI top 20, including a win over Northwestern.

The Tar Heels are our No. 4 seed over Denver, which could be a sore spot for some folks come this Sunday. Yes, the Pioneers are undefeated with victories over Boston College and Maryland, but their No. 5 RPI is held back by the a strength of schedule ranked 22nd. It is conceivable that the selection committee ranks the Pioneers ahead of the Tar Heels, or even the Eagles, with two more wins in the Big East tournament.

Our bottom three seeds remain the same: James Madison, Maryland and Florida. There isn’t much debate about who the top eight are, and without upsets of these three in their conference tournaments that shouldn’t change.

Rutgers disrupts, several bubble teams suffer large RPI drops

The recent surge by Rutgers has vaulted the Scarlet Knights into the select party of 14 at-large bids ... for now.

The catch is that Rutgers (8-8), which just took out third-seeded Johns Hopkins, needs to beat Maryland in the Big Ten semifinals to be NCAA tournament eligible. Undoubtedly, bubble teams are rooting for the Terps. Should Rutgers pull off another surprise, it’s possible that six Big Ten teams make the tournament. Unless…

Penn State’s slide down the RPI continues. The Nittany Lions have lost four of their last six, but one of those two wins was a shocker over Maryland. Penn State is down to No. 28 in the RPI and is our final team in the field this week.

Last year, Arizona State was No. 27 and didn’t make the field, but there is a stronger batch of automatic qualifiers this year — teams like UMass (No. 18), Albany (No. 21), Fairfield (No. 23) and USC (No. 25) occupy places where most at-large teams normally reside. It’s also not unprecedented for a team rated this low to make the field. In 2017, Louisville made it as the final team with an RPI of 31 in what was then a 26-team field.

Another bubble team sent tumbling down the RPI this week was Richmond. The Spiders have been bouncing all over the place and were certainly affected by Virginia’s loss to Notre Dame in the ACC quarters, as well as the A-10’s relatively weak slate of teams (UMass also dropped two spots to No. 16). Richmond fell eight spots to No. 30, and in fact, our projections have them dropping below Villanova and Navy for now.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LacrosseReference.com, as of Monday morning, May 1), not human polls. First-place teams and conference tournament No. 1 seeds are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the highest rated team in the RPI is listed as the AQ. For the 2023 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

* = automatic bid clinched

Northwestern Big Ten

Boston College* ACC

Denver Big East

James Madison AAC

Loyola Patriot

Stony Brook CAA

UMass A-10

Penn Ivy

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

USC Pac-12

Mercer Big South

Liberty ASUN

Robert Morris MAC

Sacred Heart NEC

Northwestern, idle thanks to a bye during the Big Ten quarterfinals, faces Michigan in the semifinals … Boston College clinched the first automatic qualifier and now waits to see how the remaining games and numbers shake out … Denver looks to close out a perfect regular season in its Big East semifinal against Villanova and either Marquette or host UConn in the championship game.

James Madison takes its 16-game winning streak to Philadelphia for the AAC tournament; first up is Cincinnati in the semifinals and a possible rematch with Florida in the championship game … Stony Brook faces Delaware in a CAA semifinal and would meet either Drexel or host Towson in the title game … Loyola hosts the Patriot League semifinals and final once again, hosting Lehigh on Thursday, with a potential matchup against Army or Navy in the final.

UMass takes a 14-game winning streak into the Atlantic 10 tournament hosted by VCU. Barring a loss in the semifinals, the Minutewomen should make the field even without the AQ … Penn is the only sure bet out of the Ivy League, with Yale, Princeton and Harvard all needing the auto bid to make the NCAA tournament … Despite a rising RPI, Albany needs to win the America East to make the NCAA tournament.

Fairfield is another team with a robust RPI but will need to win its conference tournament. The Stags host in-state rival Quinnipiac in the semifinals on Friday … It is conceivable that USC could make the field of 29 should it fall in the Pac-12 final, but it’s not a lock by any means … Mercer went a perfect 9-0 in the Big South and will be joined by a trio of squads that went 7-2 that will try to upset the Bears in Macon.

Liberty and Jacksonville are the ASUN’s top teams, and it seems inevitable the two will meet in the championship game, but they both have to take care of business in the semifinals … Robert Morris is the latest entrant to our 29-team projection, having snagged the MAC regular-season title and hosting duties … Sacred Heart hosts the NEC tournament with a semifinal showdown with Saint Francis on tap Thursday.

AT-LARGE (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse ACC

North Carolina ACC

Maryland Big Ten

Florida AAC

Notre Dame ACC

Virginia ACC

Michigan Big Ten

Marquette Big East

Johns Hopkins Big Ten

UConn Big East

Army Patriot

Drexel CAA

Rutgers Big Ten

Navy Patriot

Villanova Big East

Stanford Pac-12

Penn State Big Ten

Yale Ivy

Richmond A-10

Jacksonville ASUN

Syracuse finally fell out of the No. 1 spot and needs a Northwestern loss to even think about reclaiming it … North Carolina is our No. 4 seed after a ACC final loss to Boston College thanks to a 4-3 record against RPI top 10 opponents. It’s possible the committee bumps the Tar Heels ahead of them depending on how numbers flesh out … Maryland will remain a seeded squad should it get by a desperate Rutgers side.

Florida and East Carolina tangle in an AAC semifinal with a potential rematch against James Madison in the championship awaiting … Notre Dame is among our first or second teams out of the seeding line and needs Maryland or Florida to trip up in their semis … Virginia is just 1-6 against the RPI top 20 with its lone win coming against Notre Dame.

Michigan has a sterling RPI (13) but little in the way of significant victories. The two against Penn State should be what get the Wolverines in … Marquette clinched the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament but must face third-seeded UConn in the semifinal. The Huskies are squarely on the bubble and need a win against the Golden Eagles.

Johns Hopkins will have to wait on Sunday to hear its name called. The Blue Jays have wins over what would be projected NCAA tournament teams in Michigan, Albany, Rutgers and Penn State … Army can all but sew up its first bid to the NCAA tournament by taking care of Navy in the Patriot League semifinals. The Mids avenged a loss to BU in the quarterfinals.

Drexel will be an interesting case for the committee — 19th in the RPI, wins over Hopkins and Fairfield, but losses to Penn State and Towson. The Dragons are likely to get in regardless of what happens in the CAA tournament … Rutgers was discussed earlier — win against Maryland and they’re in … Villanova has a win over Navy and no bad losses on its profile. An upset of Denver would clinch an at-large bid.

Stanford has been lurking in the at-large picture for a while now. A significant loss to Colorado is there, but so are wins over Albany and USC. The Pac-12 auto bid might be its only path … Penn State is going to give the committee headaches — a monumental win over Maryland, along with solid wins over Drexel and Rutgers belie the No. 28 RPI ranking and a bad loss to Vanderbilt … Yale is the No. 2 seed in the Ivy League tournament and should have to lift a trophy to reach the NCAA tournament.

Richmond’s poor non-conference scheduling might be its undoing. Richmond’s SOS is 60th. Yes, the Spiders beat Virginia and fell to JMU and Navy, but scheduling squads like Howard, Queens and William & Mary when plenty of other solid teams are within driving distance might be what keep them out … Jacksonville remains a outside shot at an at-large bid should the Dolphins fall to Liberty in the ASUN final. Wins over Penn and Stanford are highlights.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Florida
Notre Dame vs. USC (PAC-12)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Liberty (ASUN) at (4) North Carolina
Johns Hopkins vs. Penn

Denver, Colo.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (4) Denver (BIG EAST)
Virginia vs. Rutgers

Syracuse, N.Y.

Drexel vs. UConn
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Maryland
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Newton, Mass.

UMass (A-10) vs. Army
Winner plays at (3) Boston College (ACC)

Harrisonburg, Va.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (6) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Penn State

Last Four In: UConn, Army, Rutgers, Penn State
First Six Out: Villanova, Navy, Richmond, Stanford, Yale, Jacksonville
Moving In: Robert Morris, Rutgers
Moving Out: Central Michigan, Richmond
Multi-bid Conferences: Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Big East (3), AAC (2), CAA (2), Patriot League (2)