Bracketology: The Final Women's Bracket Projection

It came down to the wire, or in this case, the crossbar.

With Richmond in firm control of the Atlantic 10 final, ensuring another at-large bid was off the board, an enthralling Ivy League title tilt determined the fates of at least two teams.

With 35 seconds left in regulation, Yale hit the crossbar and Penn went on to win it in overtime, securing the automatic bid and denying Yale a spot in the NCAA tournament.

At least that’s our projection.

The bubble was rife with bid thief candidates, and nearly every result that a bubble team needed over the weekend went its way. No major upsets occurred, and little changed at the bottom of our team list.

Marquette, Michigan, Drexel and Penn State are our last four teams in the final bracket projection for the 2023 season. The first three should feel comfortable going into tonight’s selection show, while the wild card might be the fate of Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have an RPI of 32 and a strength of schedule of 20, buoyed by a monumental win over Maryland. We slated them ahead of Villanova (RPI 27, SOS 30), Navy (RPI 29, SOS 40), Yale (RPI 30, SOS 41) and Stanford (RPI 31, SOS 24) for the following reasons:

• Among this group of five, they have the best strength of schedule

• Among these five, they have as many or more wins over teams projected to be in the NCAA field (2)

• They have the best win out of this group of five (Maryland, RPI No. 9, seeded 8th in our projections)

Here’s the case against Penn State: its low RPI and loss to Vanderbilt (RPI 61).

Of the group of five, except for Villanova, all have what the committee will coin as “significant losses.” Navy lost to non-tournament teams Villanova (RPI 27), Duke (RPI 37) and Boston U (RPI 60); Yale lost to Cornell (RPI 50) and Harvard (RPI 56); and Stanford lost to Colorado twice (RPI 46).

Villanova is projected to be the highest-rated team left out of the field at No. 27, but the knock on the Wildcats is the lack of significant victories. They beat Navy, but no one else among the top 40 in the RPI.

Order of bottom four seeds are up for debate

Northwestern won the Big Ten and will be the No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament. The Wildcats are 11-1 against the RPI top 20. The next closest team is Syracuse (9-2), which is our projected No. 2 seed. ACC champion Boston College and ACC tournament runner-up North Carolina are our three and four seeds.

From here, it’s a little murkier. We have kept Denver and James Madison at Nos. 5 and 6, respectively. Denver is 19-0 with that great win over BC, including a 6-0 mark against teams in the RPI top 20, while JMU is 5-2 in the same category.

The Dukes lost to Florida, which moves up a slot to No. 7 after capturing the AAC championship. Florida is 4-3 against RPI top 20 and has just one win over other seeded teams (JMU), while James Madison has two such victories (Florida and Maryland). However, if the committee wants to put Loyola at No. 8 instead of Maryland, that makes Florida a more attractive candidate as a No. 6, possibly.

We pegged Maryland as the No. 8 seed because the Terps do have a win over a seeded team (Florida). Even though the Terps are No. 9 in the RPI and have a loss to Penn State, they hold the third-best SOS and went 5-4 against RPI top 20 teams.

Loyola, which beat Penn State, has the 21st-rated schedule and went 4-2 against the RPI top 20. The knock against the Greyhounds is their best win is Penn at No. 15, which is Maryland’s second-best victory.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LacrosseReference.com, as of Sunday, May 7), not human polls. First-place teams and conference tournament No. 1 seeds are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the highest rated team in the RPI is listed as the AQ. For the 2023 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

Northwestern Big Ten

Boston College ACC

Denver Big East

Florida AAC

Loyola Patriot

Stony Brook CAA

Penn Ivy

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

Richmond Atlantic 10

USC Pac-12

Jacksonville ASUN

Mercer Big South

Sacred Heart NEC

Central Michigan MAC

Northwestern withstood an early Maryland scare, but the Wildcats are the undisputed No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament … Boston College will feature among the top four seeds Sunday night … Denver will be the seeded team everyone talks about this year but likely will not receive a top-four seed.

Florida snapped JMU’s 17-game winning streak and has cemented its spot as a team to host this year … Loyola will be among the candidates to be a top-eight seed but may fall just short … Stony Brook is going to be on the road in the NCAA tournament, likely to Maryland, Loyola or possibly Boston College.

Penn saved it for overtime but clinched the Ivy League AQ on its ninth straight win over conference foes … Albany fended off a tough challenge from Binghamton to win the America East … Fairfield won its fifth straight MAAC title with a 13-goal victory over Siena.

Richmond throttled UMass to claim the Atlantic 10 title and take away any discussion about the merits of its at-large candidacy … USC is a bit of a mystery having played just one game against the RPI top 20 … Jacksonville won the ASUN championship on its home turf and will be traveling to a familiar place for the NCAA tournament, Gainesville.

Joining the Dolphins in Gainesville will be Mercer, which held off a late charge by Campbell for the Big South title … Sacred Heart is in the NCAA tournament after capping off a perfect run through the Northeast Conference … Central Michigan avenged a loss to Robert Morris to claim a second conference title.

AT-LARGE (19 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse ACC

North Carolina ACC

James Madison AAC

Maryland Big Ten

Notre Dame ACC

UConn Big East

Virginia ACC

Michigan Big Ten

Army Patriot

UMass Atlantic 10

Marquette Big East

Johns Hopkins Big Ten

Drexel CAA

Villanova Big East

Yale Ivy

Navy Patriot

Stanford Pac-12

Penn State Big Ten

Liberty ASUN

Despite going 1-2 in the final three games of the regular season, Syracuse remains our No. 2 seed … North Carolina is slated as our No. 4 seed … James Madison is slated as our No. 6 seed despite falling to Florida in the AAC final.

Maryland seemed up for the task against Northwestern but ran out of steam. The Terrapins are projected as a No. 8 seed but could fall out entirely … Notre Dame could sneak in as a host, but it seems unlikely … UConn is No. 12 in the RPI and is solidly in.

Virginia will be destined to travel to Chapel Hill or Harrisonburg … Michigan is No. 14 without a win over an RPI top 30 team. With the bubble as weak as it is, it’s hard to see the Wolverines being left out … Army is poised to make its first NCAA tournament with a profile that carries a No. 16 RPI and a win over an AQ in Jacksonville.

UMass will be among the at-large teams on the strength of wins over UConn and Richmond this season … Johns Hopkins will likely be the at-large team with the most losses, but wins over Michigan, Albany and two over Penn State are what will get the Blue Jays in … Marquette is among our final four in the field, but it’s nearly a certainty the Eagles will be making their first NCAA tournament appearance as the No. 19 RPI team.

Drexel might be sweating things out tonight — the RPI dropped to 23rd and two losses to non-tournament team Towson are marks on an otherwise solid resume. Nevertheless, it’s tough to see the teams in the low 20s or high 30s pass the Dragons … Villanova will have to hope that the committee is numbers-based for a bid into the tournament because the Wildcats have no significant victories to boast about … On the other hand, Navy does — the Mids beat Richmond and Jacksonville but lost to Villanova, Duke and Boston U to drag down its profile.

Stanford would likely be in if it weren’t for two losses to Colorado. The Cardinal have a win over Albany and split with USC … Penn State seems to live on the bubble year in and year out. Are wins over Maryland and Drexel enough? … Liberty would surely trade a win over Jacksonville today for the one it had over the Dolphins earlier in the season.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (8) Maryland
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (4) North Carolina
Virginia vs. Richmond (A-10)

Denver, Colo.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (5) Denver (BIG EAST)
Penn (IVY) vs. USC (PAC-12)

Syracuse, N.Y.

UConn vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Florida
Notre Dame vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Newton, Mass.

UMass vs. Army
Winner plays at (3) Boston College (ACC)

Harrisonburg, Va.

Penn State at (6) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Drexel

Last Four In: Marquette, Michigan, Drexel, Penn State
First Four Out: Villanova, Navy, Yale, Stanford
Moving In: Central Michigan, Jacksonville
Moving Out: Liberty, Robert Morris
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Big East (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), CAA (2), Patriot League (2)