Beyond the Basics: Analytics to Define Every Division I Women's Top 20 Team

There’s more to lacrosse than meets the eye, and Zack Capozzi of Lacrosse Reference is determined to use advanced data and metrics to tell part of the story.

In “Beyond the Basics,” Capozzi goes beyond the box score to talk about key strengths and weaknesses for each team in the USA Lacrosse Division I Women’s Preseason Top 20, which was announced earlier this month.

For a glossary of terms, head here. Otherwise, continue reading to learn more about each team.

1. BOSTON COLLEGE

43.4% overall efficiency

The Eagles soared on offense, topping the nation with a 43.4-percent overall opponent-adjusted efficiency. This leap from 39.6 percent the previous season was driven largely by improved ball security, with a turnover rate that dropped to 19.2 percent. In the end, it was a big factor in Boston College winning the title.

2. NORTHWESTERN

19.0% defensive efficiency

Northwestern’s defense took a step forward in 2024, improving its opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency to 19.0 percent and finishing third nationally on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of the success on that end was a firm policy of no second chances. The Wildcats limited opponents to 0.48 shots per possession (No. 2 nationally; only Stony Brook was better). Their defensive prowess was a bright spot, even in a season that didn’t quite match the heights of 2023.

3. MICHIGAN

6+ assists equals 44% scoring efficiency

In games against conference peers and similarly ranked teams, when the Michigan attack racked up six or more assists, it averaged a top percentile scoring efficiency of 44 percent. The Wolverines were 3-0 in those matchups. Less than 6 assists? Still solid, but efficiency was only 27 percent with a 5-3 record. If they could find open teammates, this offense was unstoppable.

4. NORTH CAROLINA

64.3% opponent-adjusted shot-on-goal rate

North Carolina’s 2024 defense was not the force it has been in recent years. The Tar Heels finished with the 33rd-best opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency. The last time they finished outside the top 10 was in 2018. But there was one area where they excelled: limiting opponents’ shots on goal. They boasted an impressive 64.3 percent opponent-adjusted shot-on-goal rate, placing them third in the country. If they can get their save percentage back to where it’s been in the past, another top-10 finish could be in the cards.

5. VIRGINIA

No. 6 strength of schedule

Virginia’s 2025 schedule projects as the sixth-toughest in the nation, a slight bump from last year’s seventh-toughest schedule. The most difficult stretch, from March 5-19, includes games against Richmond, North Carolina, Duke and James Madison. LaxElo projects 1.7 wins here. With a non-conference schedule that also includes Princeton, Navy and Maryland and projects as the 13th-toughest, there isn’t a lot of let-up in this schedule.

6. YALE

95th percentile assist rate

Freshman Ashley Kiernan made her mark for Yale with her exceptional playmaking ability, boasting a 95th percentile assist rate. While her shooting efficiency and ball security also showed promise (69th and 82nd percentile, respectively), it was her knack for setting up teammates that truly shined. The question for 2025 is whether she can get over the hump against the best defenses. In the Yale victories she played in, she averaged 1.5 assists per game, but in Yale’s three losses to Boston College, Denver and Syracuse, she failed to record a single helper.

7. JOHNS HOPKINS

40.8 shooting defense

Johns Hopkins made significant strides on the defensive front in 2024, with its shooting defense emerging as a cornerstone of its success. The Blue Jays improved their opponents’ shooting efficiency from 49.1 percent in 2023 to a stellar 40.8 percent, ranking seventh nationally. This defensive upgrade was a major factor in their climb to 24th in the LaxElo ratings, up from 28th the previous season.

8. LOYOLA

96th percentile shot-on-goal rate

The Loyola defense was a force to be reckoned with in 2024, ranking in the 96th percentile for adjusted shot-on-goal rate. Opponents struggled to even get their shots on cage, with an adjusted rate of just 64.9 percent. I tend to think of shot-on-goal rate as a measure of how comfortable an offense is, and it’s clear that Loyola was able to keep its opponents off balance all season.

9. FLORIDA

26.7% goals allowed between 20-40 seconds

Florida’s defense finished the year ranked 10th for opponent-adjusted efficiency. But that obscures some variance; the Gators were essentially a league-average defense on possessions that lasted at least 40 seconds. But on possessions that lasted less than 40 seconds, they allowed goals on just 16 percent of their possessions. If you could avoid a turnover in transition or early offense against Florida, your chance of scoring went way up.

10. MARYLAND

20.6% overall defensive efficiency

In 2024, Maryland’s defense showed substantial improvement with an overall defensive efficiency of 20.6 percent, ranking seventh nationally, a jump from 20th the previous year. This progress was largely driven by a significant reduction in opponents’ shooting percentage, which fell from 36.7 percent to 28.8 percent. The Terrapins’ defensive unit demonstrated a strong ability to disrupt opposing offenses, contributing to their rise in LaxElo ratings from No. 12 to No. 8.